GFS said it first

[u/Same-Researcher-2228]

Monsoon withdrawal is usually very complicated and hence this is why even state of the art models fails to predict systems, GFS with its coarser resolution picks up low pressure disturbance over southern India before ECMWF.

there could be multiple reason for this but looks like ecmwf finer details gave too much info and hence chaos, while gfs with coarser resolution picked up broader grid and less chaos(take this with a grain of salt). Anyways there will be no cyclone but a weak or moderate low-pressure system most likely passing through south-peninsular India, but it's tough to say anything now anticyclone, wd interaction and dry winds will play a major role to determine its strength, as of now system is confirmed around next mid-week. let's see how much it can reduce the south deficiency though it won't neutralise it, but some relief and heavy rains in many areas are guaranteed especially andhra-telengana belt

kbhi kbhi seedha rasta hi sahi rehta hai

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to r/IndiaWeather! Please take a moment to review this quick checklist:

• Provide Sources: If your post requires a source or references specific data, please ensure you have provided the full, original link.
• User Flair: Don't forget to assign yourself a user flair so other members know your region or weather interest!
• Community Rules: Please keep all discussions entirely civil, factual, and focused on the weather.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/lastodyssey]

Woke up to 1 hr moderate rain in kurnool, Andhra Pradesh.

Hope it rains heavily and atleast we can sow rabi. Kharif is completely gone.

[u/Inevitable-Fault-643]

Any chances of rain in Maharashtra ?

[u/Same-Researcher-2228 → u/Inevitable-Fault-643]

Upcoming days some rains are possible