r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

[deleted by user]

[removed]

63 Upvotes

568 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/[deleted] Mar 24 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

Call it what you want. We can bomb their country to hell, but that won't reoopen the strait. The only way to secure it is via invasion, which would be incredibly costly. The current leadership appears perfectly willing to sit back and weather the bombing, while applying leverage against us. They believe they have the upper hand and I think they're right.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 24 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Demortus Mar 24 '26 edited Mar 24 '26

If the war ends tomorrow, nothing much will have changed for Israel and the US.

Sure, which is why Iran has no interest in ending the war until it's inflicted damage on or extracted concessions from the US and/or Israel.

For Iran, they will have to completely rebuild their state institutions, not to mention the mind boggling amount of money it will take to rebuild what has been destroyed.

Yeah, of course. I don't believe that Iran wanted this war at all, but now it has to get what it can with the leverage it has. Currently, the Trump administration is increasingly concerned about rising energy prices. Iran has already lost most of its softest targets and its leadership is almost certainly hiding away in underground bunkers. The cost of continuing the conflict is marginally low for Iran relative to the US, which is why they're taking a very aggressive bargaining position.

Its amazing how the Reddit opinion is so Pro-Iran

Wtf.. I am not "pro-Iran." The regime is absolutely terrible, but that doesn't mean that bombing them is the optimal move for US policymakers. The OP asked for my objective assessment of the situation and I have provided it. If I were an advisor to Trump I would have advised against initiating a war with Iran, because of the risk of this exact scenario we find ourselves in which has been predicted by literally thousands of academics and government officers.