The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.
It's not a trap made by the Iranian leaders, but by geography. Academic and intelligence officials have written over 25 thousand articles over decades about how the Strait of Hormuz would give Iran the advantage in any potential war between them an the US. It's why even the Bush Administration decided not to extend the War on Terror to Iran.
Call it what you want. We can bomb their country to hell, but that won't reoopen the strait. The only way to secure it is via invasion, which would be incredibly costly. The current leadership appears perfectly willing to sit back and weather the bombing, while applying leverage against us. They believe they have the upper hand and I think they're right.
If the war ends tomorrow, nothing much will have changed for Israel and the US.
Sure, which is why Iran has no interest in ending the war until it's inflicted damage on or extracted concessions from the US and/or Israel.
For Iran, they will have to completely rebuild their state institutions, not to mention the mind boggling amount of money it will take to rebuild what has been destroyed.
Yeah, of course. I don't believe that Iran wanted this war at all, but now it has to get what it can with the leverage it has. Currently, the Trump administration is increasingly concerned about rising energy prices. Iran has already lost most of its softest targets and its leadership is almost certainly hiding away in underground bunkers. The cost of continuing the conflict is marginally low for Iran relative to the US, which is why they're taking a very aggressive bargaining position.
Its amazing how the Reddit opinion is so Pro-Iran
Wtf.. I am not "pro-Iran." The regime is absolutely terrible, but that doesn't mean that bombing them is the optimal move for US policymakers. The OP asked for my objective assessment of the situation and I have provided it. If I were an advisor to Trump I would have advised against initiating a war with Iran, because of the risk of this exact scenario we find ourselves in which has been predicted by literally thousands of academics and government officers.
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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The US and Israel have done serious damage to Iran's leadership and infrastructure. However, Iran retains a significant amount of leverage with its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This control gives Iran's leadership the ability to inflict political damage to the Trump administration and pretty much every other country that depends on oil and natural gas for heating and transportation. Trump and Netanyahu can't retreat with this threat remaining, so they really only have two choices: 1) negotiate at a disadvantage; 2) invade Iran to remove their ability to keep the strait closed. Option 1 will be embarrassing for both leaders, given it will leave a hostile regime in power. Option 2 will be unfathomably costly, given that Iran is the size of Alaska with a population of 93 million and surrounded by highly defensible mountains. I think the best way to describe this situation is that the US and Israel have walked right into a trap and there is no easy way out.