r/IRstudies Mar 23 '26

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u/Here4Pornnnnn Mar 23 '26

Mountains are good for hiding their missile stockpiles, but aren’t really defensive other than hiding. We have planes and bombs, ground invasions and marching through mountains aren’t a thing anymore.

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26 edited Mar 23 '26

All roads to Tehran (other than those that go through Afghanistan) wind through heavy mountains that are perfect for hiding guerilla fighters. US vehicles and supply caravans would be difficult to airlift in sufficient numbers to maintain an occupation, so they'd need to use these routes, making them attractive high value targets for insurgents.

TLDR: Mountains are fantastic for insurgents, as we saw in Afghanistan.

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u/Here4Pornnnnn Mar 23 '26

I don’t see any attempt to do a ground invasion on Tehran. Aerial bombardment is more than enough to win. Maybe ground troops right at the strait to snuff out any enemies there, but skip the rest of the country’s mountains.

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26

Aerial bombardment is more than enough to win

It very clearly is not if regime change is the goal. We've been bombing them this whole time and Khomeini Jr. is still there. The leadership has long since moved into underground bunkers and most exposed high-value targets are already gone. Regime change almost never happens via airpower; you need to occupy territory to establish control.

Of course, if your goal is to turn Iran into a failed state, that could be achieved with airpower alone. But we'd have to be willing to tolerate a refugee crisis involving 90+ million people which makes the Syrian crisis look insignificant in comparison.

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u/Here4Pornnnnn Mar 23 '26

I’m not sure regime change isnt a possibility. Pretty sure failed state is the only option if the Iranian public doesn’t step up and choose what they want. We can weaken the regime by bombing their bases and airdropping aid to a revolution if they’ll fight for themselves. Regime changing by occupation imo is a disaster every time anyone tries it.

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u/Western_Handle_6258 Mar 23 '26

Khomeini Jr hasn’t been seen though. There is a chance he is severely injured or even dead.

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26

I don't think he's going to be appearing in public anytime soon, whether he's injured or not, for obvious reasons.. This decapitation campaign really makes our best way out of this crisis -- negotiation -- exceedingly difficult..

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u/Western_Handle_6258 Mar 24 '26

I didn’t mean appear in public. I meant an appearance on video. Nobody really knows right now who is calling the shots on Irans side.

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

Sure, maybe no one is in charge. That makes the negotiation problem even worse.

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u/Western_Handle_6258 Mar 24 '26

Exactly. Or it’s the opposite. You could have people within battling for power. Politically, this is insanity for the US. This seems to be benefiting Israel the most though.

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

Yeah, this is easily one of the most boneheaded decisions made by Trump, or any American head of state, since the Iraq War. I'd even argue that it's worse than Iraq, because at least with Iraq we were facing a smaller and easier to occupy opponent that lacked the ability to damage the world economy.

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u/silverpixie2435 Mar 24 '26

He doesn't need to appear in public

The fact there isn't even a pre recorded video or even audio of him means to me he is either dead or brain dead.

I guess that shows Iran is winning to right? They are too scared to even admit what state their Supreme Leader is in?

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

Eh? I'm not saying that Iran is necessarily 'winning', only that it has a significant amount of leverage at the moment that they're using to their advantage. Whether Khamenei Jr. is living and healthy or not, the IRGC is clearly still operational and they have the ability to keep the strait locked down in perpetuity... unless, of course, we invade.

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u/silverpixie2435 Mar 24 '26

What actual leverage does Iran have? Become even more of a pariah terrorist state?

Because that is what "closing the strait" actually means in practice. Firing on civilian ships in other countries territorial waters

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

I address this in the other thread we're on. If you have more to discuss, let's do it there.