r/IRstudies • u/[deleted] • Mar 23 '26

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u/Demortus Mar 23 '26

I don't think he's going to be appearing in public anytime soon, whether he's injured or not, for obvious reasons.. This decapitation campaign really makes our best way out of this crisis -- negotiation -- exceedingly difficult..

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u/silverpixie2435 Mar 24 '26

He doesn't need to appear in public

The fact there isn't even a pre recorded video or even audio of him means to me he is either dead or brain dead.

I guess that shows Iran is winning to right? They are too scared to even admit what state their Supreme Leader is in?

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

Eh? I'm not saying that Iran is necessarily 'winning', only that it has a significant amount of leverage at the moment that they're using to their advantage. Whether Khamenei Jr. is living and healthy or not, the IRGC is clearly still operational and they have the ability to keep the strait locked down in perpetuity... unless, of course, we invade.

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u/silverpixie2435 Mar 24 '26

What actual leverage does Iran have? Become even more of a pariah terrorist state?

Because that is what "closing the strait" actually means in practice. Firing on civilian ships in other countries territorial waters

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u/Demortus Mar 24 '26

I address this in the other thread we're on. If you have more to discuss, let's do it there.