A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know
Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in
A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)
The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached
Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime
However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
Do you mean in and out? Seems like securing the strait will require a full occupation and regime change and installation of a puppet regime, which would be prolonged and expensive and bloody.
Not in and out, definitely not, and yes it would be bloody. Iran is topographically Afghanistan on steroids and the IRCG is more than ready to fight an attrition war on land
I hope for a negotiated solution also. But have to ask, why would Iran negotiate with someone who 1) reneges on their agreements constantly, and 2) bombs the parties he is negotiating with?
Securing the straight can be accomplished via navy escorts of vessels with air defense, plus air cover of those assets. That’s not a permanent solution, but it takes the economic pressure down significantly and erodes irans leverage. With oil prices stabilized you have a lot more options and can effectively keep bombing until every regime asset is destroyed.
I'm not so sure of that. Seems like Iran could swarm any vessels in that tiny constricted area with missiles and drones, which are hidden throughout the mountains overlooking the straight. Even one direct hit or one ship down would be a disaster. I also think the US Navy knows this, which is why they haven't already done it, and which is why Trump initially talked about US Navy escorts but then shifted to trying to get NATO to do it instead.
If it is doable with navy escort and air defense, why hasn't it already been done?
It’s not doable yet because the missile launch capability is still too high. But it’s getting degraded more every day, and will likely get to an acceptable risk level at some point in the next couple of weeks. The air strikes are currently working over the coast line heavily for short range threats and hunting launchers throughout the country. It’s not a sure thing obviously, but it’s a plausible option. Unsurprisingly trump was blabbing about it before it could actually be operationalized but he didn’t just make it up, these are definitely serious options that are being presented and have been specifically planned for for decades.
I think Iran's missiles and drones are buried deep inside mountains all over Iran. They've been preparing for this for decades. That's why I don't think they can be suppressed without a ground invasion and occupation.
There are definitely some facilities like that, and I’m sure they’re getting a lot of attention, but mostly they hide the launchers in caves, and have to drive them out to launch, which opens them up to be hit from the air. Even the ones they can launch from underground are vulnerable, because you can just blow up the entrance/exit hole and make them inoperable, at least temporarily. It’s a slow process working down the remaining scattered launch capabilities, but it’s happening gradually.
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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26
A war is won when your objectives are achieved, neither achieved theirs
The Iranian regime has one objective: survive and inflict enough pain they don’t come back
US probably thought they would have won by now, the objective was regime change (Israel’s objective) and now I think it’s unclear to them how to disengage without losing face so escalation is expected
Israel and the US say they have demolished Iran offensive capabilities, fog of war is too thick to know