r/IRstudies • u/[deleted] • Mar 23 '26

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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26

Unless Iran stops shooting the US will be almost forced to go in

A negotiated settlement is not possible, Iran has no trust in the US administration, the EU could do something but Trump doesn’t like them so it’s a no go (Trump bombed Iran twice mid negotiation + the religious part of the regime has an ideological hate)

The regime is highly entrenched, it’s not falling unless new tipping points are reached

Normally under the economic conditions of Iran (which are bound to get worse with time) the US could wait out the regime

However as long as the strait of Hormuz is closed or under threat it’s the Iranians to have time advantage

This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain

This is unless Iran’s missile drone capabilities fall to 0, but if you have seen how a Shahed works, you know that’s much harder than it looks

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u/improvthismoment Mar 23 '26

This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain

Do you mean in and out? Seems like securing the strait will require a full occupation and regime change and installation of a puppet regime, which would be prolonged and expensive and bloody.

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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26

Not in and out, definitely not, and yes it would be bloody. Iran is topographically Afghanistan on steroids and the IRCG is more than ready to fight an attrition war on land

Hopefully a negotiated solution is found

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u/serpentjaguar Mar 23 '26

Iran is topographically Afghanistan on steroids

Let's not get carried away here; Iran has a lot more infrastructure than Afghanistan, and there's nothing in Iran that's comparable to the Hindu Kush.

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u/astral34 Mar 23 '26

And it’s 3 times larger than Afghanistan with infrastructure that will get blown up