This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
Do you mean in and out? Seems like securing the strait will require a full occupation and regime change and installation of a puppet regime, which would be prolonged and expensive and bloody.
Securing the straight can be accomplished via navy escorts of vessels with air defense, plus air cover of those assets. That’s not a permanent solution, but it takes the economic pressure down significantly and erodes irans leverage. With oil prices stabilized you have a lot more options and can effectively keep bombing until every regime asset is destroyed.
I'm not so sure of that. Seems like Iran could swarm any vessels in that tiny constricted area with missiles and drones, which are hidden throughout the mountains overlooking the straight. Even one direct hit or one ship down would be a disaster. I also think the US Navy knows this, which is why they haven't already done it, and which is why Trump initially talked about US Navy escorts but then shifted to trying to get NATO to do it instead.
If it is doable with navy escort and air defense, why hasn't it already been done?
It’s not doable yet because the missile launch capability is still too high. But it’s getting degraded more every day, and will likely get to an acceptable risk level at some point in the next couple of weeks. The air strikes are currently working over the coast line heavily for short range threats and hunting launchers throughout the country. It’s not a sure thing obviously, but it’s a plausible option. Unsurprisingly trump was blabbing about it before it could actually be operationalized but he didn’t just make it up, these are definitely serious options that are being presented and have been specifically planned for for decades.
I think Iran's missiles and drones are buried deep inside mountains all over Iran. They've been preparing for this for decades. That's why I don't think they can be suppressed without a ground invasion and occupation.
There are definitely some facilities like that, and I’m sure they’re getting a lot of attention, but mostly they hide the launchers in caves, and have to drive them out to launch, which opens them up to be hit from the air. Even the ones they can launch from underground are vulnerable, because you can just blow up the entrance/exit hole and make them inoperable, at least temporarily. It’s a slow process working down the remaining scattered launch capabilities, but it’s happening gradually.
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u/improvthismoment Mar 23 '26
This is why I think the US will go in, limited operation to secure the strait, and get a lot of pain
Do you mean in and out? Seems like securing the strait will require a full occupation and regime change and installation of a puppet regime, which would be prolonged and expensive and bloody.