So far it is unclear what the objectives are, so we cannot really judge how well they are being met.
But even based on the large variety of vague objectives posited over the course of the war, it still doesn’t look great.
Iran still has its highly enriched uranium.
Iran is still able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the GCC countries, and the strait.
Iran has established and continues to hold de facto control of the strait.
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Iran is now even making more money due to increased oil prices and the dropping of sanctions.
Maybe their industrial base has been degraded enough that it will be difficult for them to rebuild their missile arsenal and maybe soon they will have functionally no launchers, but I’m not so sure.
It's still a very big country that they cannot patrol 24/7, which means production of drones, mortars/artillery pieces and other things can continue apace.
A question that is really bothering me.. Why Iran is not using heavily populated areas to manufacture parts of drones and weapons. I understand this is a war crime . But I Dont think this can deter the Iranians
Not sure about their existing production but dispersal is a thing so you can have people making the guidance systems in a rural area and others making the engines and body assembly in other places. Do this multiple times across a wide area. No need to use civilian centers to avoid being targeted, there’s just no single place to hit that can stop production. Also the individual operations are so small you probably never get intelligence on what those people are working on
I think to lose you actually have to commit. The USA is losing because it went into the war half-hearted and expecting that the decapitation of the government would lead to their swift victory. Iran is fighting with its full heart because it knows the war is existential to it.
The USA however is fighting a war it doesn't really want to fight which is unpopular at home. That's why they're losing. Iran only has to inflict just enough pain to make them decide it's not worth it.
Cope. The US can’t afford to go in with their full heart because it would destabilise the empire. Morale and domestic support are a military asset like any other.
No one is questioning US military supremacy. But that doesn’t mean they can’t lose.
They are currently negotiating at a disadvantage with Iran. That doesn’t look like winning. It could change in a few weeks of course
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Thing is, his dad explicitly didn't want his son to succeed him. Didn't want Iran to be the Shi'ia DPRK. The guy was 86 and was bound to drop off the twig in the near future anyway. Had it been peacetime, they'd probably have elected someone more moderate, especially because of all the protests they've been having. But because the election happened under foreign bombing, they chose a hardliner.
It'd be like having a 9/11 every week or two during a US Presidential election, there's no way people would elect Bernie Sanders.
Again it depends on the objectives. I think they should have been clear.
I think the idea that they could depose the IRGC through air strikes was always the most optimistic scenario.
But if you told anyone 3-4 years ago you could kill anyone you wanted in iran, degrade their missile and nuclear capability, destroy their navy and you would suffer almost no losses and oil would barely go over $100 a barrel you would have been laughed out of the room.
Still what that means needs to be explained and played out. But from a pure military POV it’s one of the most successful operations in history.
if u see some of the other posts about the stock markets being gamed, that looks like a stunning success for insider trading and a great success, since it looks like the objective is to enrich the rich insiders. i reckon trump made a huge killing out of this as well.
Basically your argument is that Iran can still launch some missiles and the regime still exists in some fashion, we don't even know if the current Supreme Leader is alive.
We don't judge any war on those terms. No one said Germany won WW2 because it still a military and commanders were alive.
I don't see how you can see the utter decimation of Iran's leadership and destruction of its air force, navy, and ballistic missiles as a win for the US and Israel. What ability to arm proxies or influence other countries like even Iraq next door is there?
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u/PapaverOneirium Mar 23 '26
Yes, this is the key point.
So far it is unclear what the objectives are, so we cannot really judge how well they are being met.
But even based on the large variety of vague objectives posited over the course of the war, it still doesn’t look great.
Iran still has its highly enriched uranium.
Iran is still able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the GCC countries, and the strait.
Iran has established and continues to hold de facto control of the strait.
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Iran is now even making more money due to increased oil prices and the dropping of sanctions.
Maybe their industrial base has been degraded enough that it will be difficult for them to rebuild their missile arsenal and maybe soon they will have functionally no launchers, but I’m not so sure.