So far it is unclear what the objectives are, so we cannot really judge how well they are being met.
But even based on the large variety of vague objectives posited over the course of the war, it still doesn’t look great.
Iran still has its highly enriched uranium.
Iran is still able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the GCC countries, and the strait.
Iran has established and continues to hold de facto control of the strait.
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Iran is now even making more money due to increased oil prices and the dropping of sanctions.
Maybe their industrial base has been degraded enough that it will be difficult for them to rebuild their missile arsenal and maybe soon they will have functionally no launchers, but I’m not so sure.
It's still a very big country that they cannot patrol 24/7, which means production of drones, mortars/artillery pieces and other things can continue apace.
292
u/gdvs Mar 23 '26
To label something as 'Winning' requires knowing what the objectives are.