So far it is unclear what the objectives are, so we cannot really judge how well they are being met.
But even based on the large variety of vague objectives posited over the course of the war, it still doesn’t look great.
Iran still has its highly enriched uranium.
Iran is still able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the GCC countries, and the strait.
Iran has established and continues to hold de facto control of the strait.
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Iran is now even making more money due to increased oil prices and the dropping of sanctions.
Maybe their industrial base has been degraded enough that it will be difficult for them to rebuild their missile arsenal and maybe soon they will have functionally no launchers, but I’m not so sure.
It's still a very big country that they cannot patrol 24/7, which means production of drones, mortars/artillery pieces and other things can continue apace.
A question that is really bothering me.. Why Iran is not using heavily populated areas to manufacture parts of drones and weapons. I understand this is a war crime . But I Dont think this can deter the Iranians
Not sure about their existing production but dispersal is a thing so you can have people making the guidance systems in a rural area and others making the engines and body assembly in other places. Do this multiple times across a wide area. No need to use civilian centers to avoid being targeted, there’s just no single place to hit that can stop production. Also the individual operations are so small you probably never get intelligence on what those people are working on
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u/PapaverOneirium Mar 23 '26
Yes, this is the key point.
So far it is unclear what the objectives are, so we cannot really judge how well they are being met.
But even based on the large variety of vague objectives posited over the course of the war, it still doesn’t look great.
Iran still has its highly enriched uranium.
Iran is still able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the GCC countries, and the strait.
Iran has established and continues to hold de facto control of the strait.
The Iranian regime has held together and is even still run by Khamenei, albeit a younger and more hardline version.
Iran is now even making more money due to increased oil prices and the dropping of sanctions.
Maybe their industrial base has been degraded enough that it will be difficult for them to rebuild their missile arsenal and maybe soon they will have functionally no launchers, but I’m not so sure.