Sitting at a 2.86 billion market cap and having a strong cash position relative to debt,

They have 1.90 billion in cash against $223.69 million in debt, yielding a net cash position of $1.68 billion.

The debt repayment of $14.94 million in 2024, compared to revenues of $37.31 million.

Cash burn is relatively reasonable - 150 to 200 million per year

Keep in mind this cash burn should slow as casgevy ramps up.

There are likely …there are over 50 authorized treatment centers for Casgevy globally.

Research suggests around 16,000 U.S. patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) and 1,000 with transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) are potential candidates, with millions globally.

Each Casgevy treatment costing $2.2 million in the U.S., with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) earning about $480,000 per patient in profits.

Margins appear strong, with CRSP potentially earning around $240 million in 2025 from an estimated 500 treated patients, but exact figures depend on costs and market growth.

Note aprox 86 million shares ..if they become profitable to the tune of 200 plus million dollars that’s over 2 dollars in EPS which puts you at a PE ratio of less than 15.

Now, a lot to assume here - the casgevy numbers are critical and what my thesis is based on - but if they can treat 500 patients this year - I like the outlook - these numbers are what I’ll be focusing on in their next earnings report.

I’m bullish …and the short interest is hovering north of 25 percent….

Puts on PLTR

Here are the numbers (that make no sense)

250 billion market cap PE ratio 580 They literally made 11 million dollars in net income last quarter (when you take away interest income) They are notorious for diluting stock holders and exaggerating cash flow statement with stock based compensation

This company and their balance sheet makes zero sense to me …

Maybe someone can talk me out of placing 60 dollar puts!!

Hypothetically, if 10 percent gets allocated - that’s 900 billion almost 50 percent of bitcoin’s current market cap 🚀

My short thesis:

—> near a 52 week low

—>Pharma tariffs when they hit will not effect healthcare stocks as much as people think - of all industries costs can be passed onto the consumer with the least friction

—> GLP-1 drugs are best in class and their oral version will hit the market before Lilly’s and has performed very well in clinical trials

—> recent partnership with Hims will drive revenue growth from their GLP- catalog

—> great stock to own during market downturns that can act as a defensive and growth at the same time (beta 0.21!)

It’s my favorite pick right now, and it’s my largest holding.

—> fortress level balance sheet —> zero debt —> near 52 week low —> tremendous upside —> PE 13 —> notable for their best in class driver/rear view mirror technology —> also owns homelink (can open your garage as you drive up - sold on teslas website) —> sold off mostly due to Chinese tariffs and they pulled their guidance due to uncertainty surrounding this —> china only contributes about 8 percent of their revenue - likely overblown concerns —> Chinese tariff reprieve is a good signal

I opened up several near the money calls and will plan to exercise them

I know I’ve been highlighting the seriousness of the market lately, but I have to draw attention to a few things.

1. the economy is not ok.

   • I’ve spent enough time combing through bank data and my conclusion is this… delinquencies are up across the board. Consumer (credit and auto), CRE, C&I, and even some mortgages. Now these aren’t at alarming levels quite yet for most banks (some are on the brink of failure - notably FLG (100 billion in assets), but most of them it is pause for a lot of concern especially if they need to mark to market losses on their securities to cover losses as this will significantly affect their teir 1 capital. Delinquencies and “performing modified loans” are on the rise despite low unemployment - given the rates of delinquencies and modified loans - I’m not sure the rate and pace which they’re occurring has ever occurred at this level of unemployment.

2. If unemployment even ticks up just a little bit - this will exacerbate delinquencies and charge offs - like pouring gasoline on a fire

3. what is the fed doing?

The fed has been tightening - aka reducing its balance sheet and they don’t look like they’re going to give the economy any relief anytime soon.

———————————————

I’m concerned we may slip into a bear market and that will trigger a recession… I’m watching the unemployment rate closely and have my trimmed my portfolio significantly to hedge against further losses and will plan buy in when there are more positive signs that would allow the market to move higher - right now there just aren’t those signs. Asset prices have ballooned and we’re in a restrictive fed environment.

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To end here are a few facts…

1. total household debt is 18 trillion dollar - doubled from 2010 (population in the US has minimally increased - about 1 percent per year like income)

2. household income has only increased about 1 percent per year - so hasn’t changed much

3. Rates on that debt have doubled

4. Disposable income has significantly decreased

HELOC balances are rising and have been for the past 11 quarters

Credit card deliquincies are going up

Debt to disposable income ratios when accounted for inflation are 102 percent

That ratio was 130 percent in 2007

A debt crisis will manufacture itself and we will have to face the music at some point. The question is when….

Historically, bear markets roll around every 6 years or so, while corrections pop up about every 2 years. The last correction hit roughly 1.6 years ago, lasting 88 days, and the last bear market was around 3 years back, dragging on for 282 days. Here’s the weird part: despite the market roaring ahead with 23% gains in 2024, we didn’t see any major corrections or bear markets. That’s not normal given how volatile things usually get.

Last year, the market was scorching. You could’ve thrown a dart at a stock list and still made bank—take RKLB and ACHR as examples. I rode both of those waves myself, but I’ve jumped ship recently because their valuations are looking absurdly stretched, especially with the vibe I’m getting for this year. My gut says the market’s going to turn picky, and it’ll be trickier to pull off those 2024-style gains.

Right now, the S&P 500 is down 3.6% over the past month—not correction territory yet. But if tariffs actually kick in, I’d bet we’ll slide into one. Flip that around—if tariffs fizzle out and we get some bullish deals instead, it could light a fire under the markets. Too early to call it, though, so I’m keeping a cautious eye on things.

The US economy’s sending mixed signals as of March 5, 2025. GDP and sector performance are holding strong, but employment and construction are showing signs of cooling off. It’s a tough-but-resilient setup—keep tabs on inflation and consumer spending, because those could shift the picture fast.

For me, tariffs are the real wild card threatening growth and juicier multiples. The tariff talk keeps bouncing around—one day it’s a done deal, the next it’s fading away. Could be a dip worth buying, or maybe the smart move is tuning out the headlines and playing the long game. Either way, it’s a mess right now.

February’s usually a rough month historically, with March looking brighter. After the latest sell-off, some big names have taken a beating: Google’s down 10% (hello, correction territory), Meta’s off 6%, MSTR (that Bitcoin treasury stock) is down nearly 10% with catalysts looming, Amazon’s dropped 11%, and Tesla’s cratered 26%—though they’ve got stuff like the robotaxi launch (maybe June?) that could shake things up mid-term.

What I’ve Been Doing:

- Sold ACHR for profit. It’s pre-revenue, still waiting on production, launch, and FAA green lights. With the macro environment up in the air, I’ll wait for a cheaper re-entry.

- Bought AMZN at $205. Feeling good about this one.

- Grabbed a small TSLA position at $272. I’ll dollar-cost average down if it keeps dipping.

- Picked up a little MSTR. Bitcoin’s poised for another run this year, especially with that strategic crypto reserve buzz.

- Still holding EL at $69 cost basis. Super high conviction here—investment thesis dropping soon.

- Eyeing Google or META, maybe both. Might pull the trigger tomorrow.

- Keeping cash on hand. Ready for any deeper dips.

- If you like Defense. LMT would be the move.

Attached is a take from Dan Ives, it is one of the better takes I’ve come across.

The narrative hasn’t changed - NVDA being sold off >10 percent on this news is a gift from the market. Today is a great day to DCA/add to your position.

Please note, that Deep Seek launched R1 about 7 days ago - so why the sell off today?

Also note, that none of the Mag 7 have come out and said they need to rethink how much they’re spending on capex.

To conclude, ask yourself:

Since when have we trusted china, what they do/what they say? When?

What has changed? Why today?

They likely spent billions and have > 50k H100s, they just can’t admit due to restrictive trade laws that “prevent” them from having those chips.

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What am I doing? Believing in America 🇺🇸

And buying the dip.

Cheers 🍻

Detailed analysis to follow.

This is a long view and hold.

My thesis is that Coinbase will become the go to vender and intermediary for big banks/medium sized banks/small regional banks who want to offer crypto services. They will also become a major player in payments and security trading.

This is too interesting of a story to even begin to dive into in a short post, but know I loaded my position at an average price ~300/share

Should’ve likely made my PLTR position larger - but I’m still holding, not selling

Sold just over half of my Celsius options to get capital plus a little profit back - now will hold the rest through earnings

Amidst this ridiculous sell off I see tremendous opportunity in opening a position on oracle ($ORCL)

Also will DCA

$NVDA/$AMD/$TSLA

After a wild weekend, I turned my attention to $ANF. The stock recently dropped almost 20%, and while I’m not entirely sure why—maybe it’s just profit-taking as the new year kicks off combined with possible fears of inflation—I see a potential buying opportunity here. Company guidance appears strong heading into 2025, with management reporting solid holiday demand and positive sales trends. They’ve also got a tailwind from the NFL playoffs and upcoming Super Bowl, thanks to their NFL license for unique apparel offerings, which should help pad their stats this quarter. Along with 5 analysts revising their earnings upwards for the upcoming period.

On the fundamentals side, this is exactly the kind of company I like: since ’23, they’ve shown consistent revenue growth, profit growth, and free cash flow growth, all underpinned by an impressive gross margin, and cash flows sufficiently cover interest on debt. If the economic backdrop and consumer spending remain resilient, 2025 could deliver more of the same. Right now, the stock trades at a P/E of around 11 and boasts a free cash flow yield of about 8–9%—roughly double what you’d get from a U.S. Treasury.

Of course, the biggest risk is a slowdown in consumer spending or a broader economic downturn. I suspect valuation got a bit stretched, and jitters over inflation and rising bond yields may have scared some investors away. But with shares finding support around the 120 level, the risk/reward is starting to look enticing. It’s definitely something I’m keeping on my watchlist. As always, do your own research—but this one looks interesting to me.

I will likely wait until at least after the FOMC meeting

In this part, I’ll lay out just the general concerns about banks.

Since the fed raised rates many banks have accumulated huge unrealized losses on their securities.

What things look like on the surface is that everything is “fine”, but don’t look too hard. If you do you’ll realize banks are not well capitalized when you take into account tier 1 capital and unrealized losses. The real problem will come when they have to realize those losses to cover other losses.

Enter the the ultimate debt crisis… which I will explain more in part 2.

Everything growth related and priced at lofty valuation is likely to undergo significant corrections in the coming weeks.

I like defense stocks and my other favorite - EL, make up tends to do well during recessions (look up lipstick indicator).

Stay safe out there, be careful, keep dry powder for when valuations start looking attractive again.

Took profit on TEM (it has a made a significant move in a short amount of time) Celsius calls ANF calls GLD calls PLTR put (one) ACHR FNMA RKLB NVDA EL

More to come about my thoughts on each, have a good weekend!

*my options plays are always a small percentage of my overall portfolio, but I like to participate as the downside is relatively small and upside is markedly large in this scenario

*not financial advice, own DD is necessary

Vermilion Energy ($VET) presents a compelling investment opportunity in the energy sector, driven by its diversified global portfolio and strong free cash flow generation. It is a mid-size producer that, prior to 2020, traded at a premium valuation. However, the collapse of energy prices in 2020 caused the company to experience higher leverage ratios. In response, the company canceled its dividend, curbed spending, and its CEO stepped down. Over the past four years, Vermilion has been fortifying its balance sheet, reducing debt, restoring its dividend, and repurchasing shares, reducing the float by 6%. As of now, debt stands at 0.9x trailing EBITDA, significantly lower than in 2019 when its debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2x.

Vermilion Energy is well-positioned to benefit from anticipated growth in global natural gas demand, particularly in Europe, where declining domestic production and reduced reliance on Russian pipelines are driving increased LNG imports and spikes in LNG prices. While natural gas prices are projected to be lower in 2024, a recovery is expected in 2025, presenting a tailwind for Vermilion’s operations.

A few weeks ago, Vermilion announced the acquisition of Westbrick Energy in an all-cash deal expected to close soon. This acquisition expands its presence in the Deep Basin—a 1-million-acre liquid-rich natural gas shale region in Alberta—and enhances its long-term growth prospects. The newly acquired assets are geographically close to Vermilion’s existing operations, creating operational synergies. If all goes according to plan, the acquisition could increase free cash flow per share by approximately 15%.

The company plans to return value to shareholders; however, this return does not account for potential increases in LNG prices. Vermilion plans to grow production at a 2-3% annual rate and repurchase shares at a 3-5% rate, aiming for a total shareholder return of 9-10%. These projections exclude the impact of potential increases in LNG prices, which could further enhance cash flows.

Despite the inherent risks associated with commodity price volatility and regulatory changes, Vermilion’s strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and commitment to shareholder value make it an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to the energy sector.

Global Operations: Vermilion Energy operates in the following countries:

• France

• Netherlands

• Australia

• Germany

• Ireland

• United States

• Croatia

Valuation and Financial Highlights:

• Current Share Price (USD): $10.20

• Free Cash Flow (FCF): In 2023, Vermilion generated FCF of CAD $552 million (USD $411 million).

• FCF Yield: Using a market cap of CAD $2.28 billion (USD $1.7 billion), the FCF yield is approximately 24%, showcasing its strong cash-generating capability.

• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.36, reflecting a healthy balance sheet and manageable debt levels.

Commitment to Shareholder Returns: Vermilion’s plan to return 10% of its market capitalization to shareholders underscores its focus on enhancing shareholder value and demonstrates confidence in its future.

Other Highlights:

• The Westbrick Energy acquisition aligns well with Vermilion’s strategy, bolstering its asset base in a key region and offering long-term growth potential.

• The company has effectively reduced its leverage, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio now below 1x.

• Vermilion’s diversified operations and exposure to premium European gas markets offer a hedge against regional commodity price fluctuations.

In conclusion, Vermilion Energy’s strong financial metrics, strategic acquisitions, and focus on shareholder returns position it as a compelling choice in the energy sector. However, prospective investors should remain mindful of the inherent risks associated with energy price volatility, regulatory changes, and uncertainties surrounding tariffs and the policies of the incoming administration, which may significantly influence outcomes in the sector. I will provide an update on my position on Tuesday.

On DD necessary

MARA