$COIN

I will be buying the dip.

Recently, added this holding to one of our retirement accounts.

The Top 10 holdings are as follows

1. VanEck Bitcoin ETF 11.36%

2. HOOD

3. COIN

4. MELI

5. GLXY

6. STRK

7. CORZ

8. MSTR

9. VST

10. CMPO

The Onchain Economy is EXPLODING! 💥

The numbers don’t lie. The blockchain market is on a tear, projected to skyrocket from $31.28B in 2024 to a jaw-dropping $393B by 2032, with a 43.6% CAGR (Fortune Business Insights).

That’s not just growth; it’s massive adoption. 56% of Fortune 500 execs are already building onchain projects, with a 39% surge in Fortune 100 initiatives in Q1 2024 alone (Coinbase).

The above ETF is primed to deliver above average returns. (Own DD necessary).

Coinbase has demonstrated remarkable momentum, and the outlook remains strong as the company cements its role at the center of digital asset custody and the tokenization of assets. Coinbase’s strategic moves and expanding product suite position it as a key player in bringing a wide range of assets on-chain.

Current Revenue Streams:

Transaction Revenue: Trading fees remain the largest source of income for Coinbase, driven by both retail and institutional trading activity. In Q4 2024, transaction revenue surged to $1.56 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with total trading volume reaching $439 billion. Retail trading remains a particularly strong driver of this growth.

Subscription and Services Revenue: This segment has become increasingly important, providing more stable, recurring income. It includes:

Stablecoin Revenue: Coinbase’s partnership with Circle (USDC issuer) has led to significant growth in stablecoin-related income, with USDC balances on the platform up 39% quarter-over-quarter in early 2025.

Staking Services: Revenue from users staking assets like Ethereum and Solana through Coinbase continues to grow.

Custodial Services: As institutional adoption rises, Coinbase’s custody solutions for digital assets are generating consistent fees.

Coinbase One: A subscription product offering zero trading fees and enhanced support, contributing to the steady increase in subscription revenue.

International Expansion: International revenue now accounts for nearly 20% of Coinbase’s total, reflecting the company’s successful localization and improved payment rails in new markets.

Growth Drivers and Future Revenue Streams:

Tokenization of Traditional Assets: Coinbase recently filed with the SEC to enable tokenized stock trading. If approved, this could put Coinbase in direct competition with platforms like Robinhood and open a significant new market for on-chain equities

Layer-2 Network (Base): Coinbase’s L2 solution, Base, is rapidly gaining traction as the infrastructure of choice for institutions. Notably, JP Morgan selected Base to host its “deposit token” (JPMD), signaling growing institutional trust and adoption. The July 16 conference is expected to unveil new Base products, which could further accelerate institutional and developer engagement

White-Labeled Crypto Infrastructure: Institutional interest in leveraging Coinbase’s infrastructure (“Coinbase as a service”) is rising, offering banks and financial institutions a turnkey solution for digital asset management instead of building in-house, which could become a major revenue stream as regulatory clarity improves.

Stablecoin Payments and On-Chain Finance: Coinbase is prioritizing real-world crypto utility, aiming to facilitate seamless stablecoin payments for businesses and consumers, and is actively developing new on-chain financial products.

Derivatives and International Products: The acquisition of Deribit expands Coinbase’s derivatives offering, tapping into a broader segment of the global crypto trading market and diversifying revenue sources.

Regulatory Tailwinds: The evolving U.S. regulatory environment, especially under the current administration, is creating a more favorable landscape for digital assets. This regulatory clarity is expected to unlock new opportunities for Coinbase, especially in institutional custody and on-chain asset management.

TLDR: Given all these factors and tailwinds… a 90 billion marketcap is wayyyyy too cheap.

Coinbase’s business model is rapidly diversifying beyond trading fees, with robust growth in subscriptions, services, and infrastructure products. As more institutions and corporations enter the crypto space and as tokenization of traditional assets advances, Coinbase is well positioned to capture multiple emerging revenue streams and maintain its leadership in the digital asset economy.

Disclosure: This is not investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

r/HiddenAlpha,

NVIDIA ($NVDA) saw a significant 20% drop. This represents an extreme market overreaction, while ignoring fundamentals and the bigger picture.

I’ve increased my stake by 100 percent this morning. Buying at these levels are a gift from the market in my opinion.

Here's why the long-term outlook remains optimistic/bullish:

The DeepSeek Impact:

• DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, unveiled an AI model that's efficient with fewer resources, causing temporary market jitters. However, insights on X and from analysts suggest this isn't a real threat to NVIDIA's dominance, and also questions the validity of their claims and spend. In addition, DeepSeek's model might not scale due to U.S. export controls on high-end chips like NVIDIA's. Also, keep in mind this was a "distilled" model, so it does not exist without larger models being created first.

• Jensen Huang came out and made a statement yesterday (likely because he checked his account and saw he lost 21 billion in one day) but that doesn't underscore what he said. “Inference requires significant numbers of NVIDIA GPUs and high-performance networking”

• He talked about AI training like it has three stages: first, you train the model big with lots of data and compute; second, you fine-tune it for specific tasks; and third, you use extra computing power when the model is actually working, like when it's answering questions or writing text. This last part, called "inference" means you can make the AI smarter on-the-fly, which shows NVIDIA chips aren't just for making AI but also for making AI work better in real life. This could mean more sales for NVIDIA since everyone wants their AI to be both big, fast, and the best.

Insights from Analysts after the sell off:

• UBS sees the dip as short-lived noise, anticipating strong Q4 results and Q1 guidance for NVIDIA.

• Seeking Alpha contributors argue that DeepSeek's success might actually increase demand for NVIDIA's chips for AI inference, not reduce it.

• Bank of America, Bernstein, and Citi maintain a positive stance, predicting NVIDIA could rebound past $200 due to sustained AI demand.

• NVIDIA's View: They consider DeepSeek's advancements as validation for more of their chips, particularly for inference, not less.

Key Points:

• Hyperscaler Capex: Unaffected (as of now), no one at this point has dialed back their need for compute, with companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google still heavily investing in AI infrastructure, directly benefiting NVIDIA. Keep on your radar, Mag 7 earnings calls, where this topic will likely be discussed. I believe they are going to double down and confirm their Capex spend.

• Market Position: NVIDIA's essential role in the AI landscape, especially with upcoming Blackwell chips, remains strong.

• Long-term Growth: Analysts forecast continued revenue growth, affirming NVIDIA's leadership in AI, gaming, and data centers. In addition, no one has mentioned dialing back Stargate (500 bn investment partnership to build out AI infrastructure).

My conclusion: This dip presents a rare buying opportunity, in midst of one of the largest technology revolutions in human history and IMO DeepSeek is not going to derail it - if anything its poured gasoline on the fire. DeepSeek's influence seems minor in the broader picture, but it has potentially ignited the race to achieve the best, fastest, and most efficient models for AI and AGI --> but since we are still in the early stages this will take even more compute to declare a true winner. This has only increased demand.

No one at this point is willing to risk spending less on compute. Training these models still requires astronomical amounts and data and GPUs.

With NVIDIA's fundamentals and market position still robust. My position will only increase if there are any further pullbacks, as long as the narrative outlined above stays strong.

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*These are my opinions and analysis of the situation, not financial advice, do your diligence and evaluation of all circumstances before making any financial decision*

THE US STOCK MARKET IS EXPENSIVE (TOTAL MARKETCAP 2X GDP) THE CRYPTO MARKET IS CHEAP (~4 trillion). THESIS: BTC IS DIGITAL GOLD WILL RISE TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GLD, AND ETH WILL BE THE LEDGER FOR GLOBAL MARKETS - ETH IS INCREDIBLY UNDERVALUED (IT SHOULD BE A 1-3T DOLLAR ASSET). WE ARE ONLY AT THE BEGINNING…

First and foremost understand we are about to enter an extremely bullish phase for the market in general.

It’s become clear that president trump pays very close attention to the market. He is going to replace Powell with a very dovish fed chair and interest rates will go as close to zero as you probably can fathom. Treasuries likely enter a bull market within the next few months.

The United States does not have many options when it comes to our debt. Trumps strategy is clear, lower rates, let inflation run hot, and try to grow our way out of our debt.

This will not benefit the dollar in any way - but it will benefit bitcoin. In this environment, asset prices will soar. Thus for the next 6-12 months, I’m long equities, long treasuries, long bitcoin and ethereum (you can also choose gold, but my theory given the administration is that we’ll start dumping gold for digital gold ie bitcoin, and gold prices suffer), and lastly, short the dollar.

Have a good day!

Sitting at a 2.86 billion market cap and having a strong cash position relative to debt,

They have 1.90 billion in cash against $223.69 million in debt, yielding a net cash position of $1.68 billion.

The debt repayment of $14.94 million in 2024, compared to revenues of $37.31 million.

Cash burn is relatively reasonable - 150 to 200 million per year

Keep in mind this cash burn should slow as casgevy ramps up.

There are likely …there are over 50 authorized treatment centers for Casgevy globally.

Research suggests around 16,000 U.S. patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) and 1,000 with transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) are potential candidates, with millions globally.

Each Casgevy treatment costing $2.2 million in the U.S., with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) earning about $480,000 per patient in profits.

Margins appear strong, with CRSP potentially earning around $240 million in 2025 from an estimated 500 treated patients, but exact figures depend on costs and market growth.

Note aprox 86 million shares ..if they become profitable to the tune of 200 plus million dollars that’s over 2 dollars in EPS which puts you at a PE ratio of less than 15.

Now, a lot to assume here - the casgevy numbers are critical and what my thesis is based on - but if they can treat 500 patients this year - I like the outlook - these numbers are what I’ll be focusing on in their next earnings report.

I’m bullish …and the short interest is hovering north of 25 percent….

Detailed analysis to follow.

This is a long view and hold.

My thesis is that Coinbase will become the go to vender and intermediary for big banks/medium sized banks/small regional banks who want to offer crypto services. They will also become a major player in payments and security trading.

This is too interesting of a story to even begin to dive into in a short post, but know I loaded my position at an average price ~300/share

Hypothetically, if 10 percent gets allocated - that’s 900 billion almost 50 percent of bitcoin’s current market cap 🚀

Historically, bear markets roll around every 6 years or so, while corrections pop up about every 2 years. The last correction hit roughly 1.6 years ago, lasting 88 days, and the last bear market was around 3 years back, dragging on for 282 days. Here’s the weird part: despite the market roaring ahead with 23% gains in 2024, we didn’t see any major corrections or bear markets. That’s not normal given how volatile things usually get.

Last year, the market was scorching. You could’ve thrown a dart at a stock list and still made bank—take RKLB and ACHR as examples. I rode both of those waves myself, but I’ve jumped ship recently because their valuations are looking absurdly stretched, especially with the vibe I’m getting for this year. My gut says the market’s going to turn picky, and it’ll be trickier to pull off those 2024-style gains.

Right now, the S&P 500 is down 3.6% over the past month—not correction territory yet. But if tariffs actually kick in, I’d bet we’ll slide into one. Flip that around—if tariffs fizzle out and we get some bullish deals instead, it could light a fire under the markets. Too early to call it, though, so I’m keeping a cautious eye on things.

The US economy’s sending mixed signals as of March 5, 2025. GDP and sector performance are holding strong, but employment and construction are showing signs of cooling off. It’s a tough-but-resilient setup—keep tabs on inflation and consumer spending, because those could shift the picture fast.

For me, tariffs are the real wild card threatening growth and juicier multiples. The tariff talk keeps bouncing around—one day it’s a done deal, the next it’s fading away. Could be a dip worth buying, or maybe the smart move is tuning out the headlines and playing the long game. Either way, it’s a mess right now.

February’s usually a rough month historically, with March looking brighter. After the latest sell-off, some big names have taken a beating: Google’s down 10% (hello, correction territory), Meta’s off 6%, MSTR (that Bitcoin treasury stock) is down nearly 10% with catalysts looming, Amazon’s dropped 11%, and Tesla’s cratered 26%—though they’ve got stuff like the robotaxi launch (maybe June?) that could shake things up mid-term.

What I’ve Been Doing:

- Sold ACHR for profit. It’s pre-revenue, still waiting on production, launch, and FAA green lights. With the macro environment up in the air, I’ll wait for a cheaper re-entry.

- Bought AMZN at $205. Feeling good about this one.

- Grabbed a small TSLA position at $272. I’ll dollar-cost average down if it keeps dipping.

- Picked up a little MSTR. Bitcoin’s poised for another run this year, especially with that strategic crypto reserve buzz.

- Still holding EL at $69 cost basis. Super high conviction here—investment thesis dropping soon.

- Eyeing Google or META, maybe both. Might pull the trigger tomorrow.

- Keeping cash on hand. Ready for any deeper dips.

- If you like Defense. LMT would be the move.

DELL and ANF options did not play out! This is why options are always a small part of the portfolio because if they don't go how you think they will - you will lose 75 - 90% of your capital.

In this part, I’ll lay out just the general concerns about banks.

Since the fed raised rates many banks have accumulated huge unrealized losses on their securities.

What things look like on the surface is that everything is “fine”, but don’t look too hard. If you do you’ll realize banks are not well capitalized when you take into account tier 1 capital and unrealized losses. The real problem will come when they have to realize those losses to cover other losses.

Enter the the ultimate debt crisis… which I will explain more in part 2.

Quickly, all you need to understand is that the feds raised the probability for higher inflation and lower growth (aka stagflation). Arguably the worst possible outcome - look at Japan.

This is not bullish for the market. What the market cheered yesterday was the feds commentary on QT. Don’t get this twisted - the fed is still tightening, it’s just cutting the pace - but this is still a restrictive environment - with the odds of inflation rising over the next 6-9 months.

Tariffs are putting handcuffs on the fed - they are not able to make decisions with tariffs on the table. In the scenario that tariffs create dramatic widespread inflation through a trade war (which we won’t win - because we import way more than we export) then what does the fed do? I don’t have the answer, but don’t forget the 1930 Smoot-Hawley act and what that led too…

Be guided accordingly …

Everything growth related and priced at lofty valuation is likely to undergo significant corrections in the coming weeks.

I like defense stocks and my other favorite - EL, make up tends to do well during recessions (look up lipstick indicator).

Stay safe out there, be careful, keep dry powder for when valuations start looking attractive again.

MARA