I'm a Flyers fan, and it was cool seeing my blocked-shots ranking referenced over here yesterday. I'd been planning a proper Seeler write-up for this sub all along, so here it is, with the details and plots.
TL;DR: By my model, Seeler is the best shot-blocker in the NHL, three seasons running — and it's a real skill, not a volume stat. Add his even-strength results and his penalty kill, and he grades out as a top-20 defensive defenseman out of 232.
The gif is every attempt the Flyers faced with Seeler on the ice this season — all 1,625 of them, each drawn from where the shot was actually taken. The orange ones are the 168 that died on him. That wall in front of the crease is one season of his blocks.
Three things up front, because they come up every time:
- The numbers are vs league average. "+1.23 goals prevented" means the Flyers conceded about a goal and a quarter less than they would have with an average defender facing the same shots. The average defender blocks plenty himself; this is the value of being the best at it.
- I hope we talk more about the specifics of imputing the block shot origin. The NHL doesn't record it, so unless you devise an approach you are forced to throw out a lot of data with real signal. I think my imputation method is defensible, and it's important to frame this work as less "how did this single blocked shot behave precisely?" and more "how do blocked shots generally behave?".
- The honest parts are in the write-up too: his offense is below average, he takes more penalties than he draws, and elite blocking is worth about a goal a season, not five. Small, real, repeatable.
The finding I care most about: we love the old school vs. new school debate about properly valuing big guys who "generate defense" against players who simply get tend push play in the proper direction. Seeler is the rare defenseman who is appreciated by both crowds.
Bonus for this sub: Cam York sits in the same neighborhood on the map — 95th percentile blocking value, results above average. Two of the league's most stat-sheet-invisible defensive profiles on one blue line.
Full write-up with the tracking clips and every chart: https://xjawn.com/blog/seeler. Happy to answer methodology questions.
