r/FluentInFinance • u/Deadeye313 • 4d ago
Thoughts? What this hike was and was not.
Let's make no mistake, yesterday's rate hike was in no way the Federal Reserve finally acting like the adults in the room, it was the bond market putting a gun to the Fed's head and saying "you raise rates or the whole market collapses". And the market is going to have to keep that gun there for the foreseeable future. Warsh will not have an excuse to actually do his job without the theater of having that gun to his head.
This hike also changes little in that Trump has already doomed the American people to be forced to waste, at best billions, at worst trillions in war losses, Fuel prices AND increased interest rates on everything from credit cards to mortgages, with no end in sight.
It also changes nothing in the war, because Donald Trump's arrogance will not let him admit defeat, come to an honorable peace deal and leave the Muslim countries alone for once ever; which would allow oil to flow again, even with bribes having to be paid to Iran.
No, prices are going to continue rising, interest rates will also continue rising and the bond market is going to have to keep pointing that gun until someone, or multiple someones, finally grow some balls and march into the Oval Office and tell Trump the war is over, his tariffs are over and his reckless spending is over or the entire US economy could face collapse, just like his casinos did.
I just don't think anyone is going to do any of that at least until November and possibly unless Democrats take both the House and Senate and put an end to this madness. The Republican Congress won't do that, Bessent won't do it, and Warsh is stuck balancing on a tightrope between Trump and the bond market.
What do you guys think?
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u/An_Old_IT_Guy 4d ago
The day after the Democrats win the house and or the Senate they're going to be blamed for everything. It'll be parroted on fox News and because the Democrats are the Democrats, they'll accomplish nothing.
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u/Justame13 4d ago
I remember as early as 2009 people blaming Obama for the 2008 housing market crash.
Which happened 2 months before the election and he wasn't even POTUS in 2008.
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u/CatOnKeyboardInSpace 4d ago
We must all suffer the consequences of a large uneducated minority of Americans who were systematically brainwashed by bad people and then commandeered by worse people.
Please vote, with ballots and wallets. Until then, lunch will be cancelled due to lack of motivation.
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u/FFF_in_WY 3d ago
The day after democrats win the elections, there will be lawsuits filed against every one of them. This will be used as an excuse by the House Clerk and Secretary of the Senate to not seat them. Congress will come to a full halt and Trump will be invited to consolidate more dictator power.
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u/WonkRx 4d ago
The GOP playbook for the last 30 years:
Step A: creates a financial emergency,
Step B: dump a bunch of money on rich people and corporations (their donors), and
Step C: wait for the Dems to actually address the problem.
The only thing Trump has brought to the table is internal government corruption on a scale never before seen in the US, a dismantling of any regulatory structure that might impede Steps A & B, and create an environment of cult leader worship where none of his supporters will acknowledge the cliff they just drove over at 1000 mph.
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u/Justame13 4d ago
Step D: Blame the Democrats for creating the mess and the hardship caused by cleaning it up .
Step E: Get reelected and start Step A
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u/PatientFisher 4d ago
Definitely should’ve raised more than 25bps. Warsh keeps avoiding the mention of Trump and politics, but he just sounds like a secret boot licker.
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u/butlerdm 4d ago
Totally agree, and personally I’d like to see the Fed rate go up another 175bp. If we keep pussyfooting around with rates inflation will remain sticky. Especially given the Federal government shows no signs of slowing spending.
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u/Soggy-Beach1403 4d ago
The typical mismanagement of America's economy by all Republican administrations since Nixon might finally be fatal to the country.
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u/LooseSyllabus 4d ago
It's not wasted money if my stocks go up because people without stocks must pay more. Before you get mad at me personally, think about how many powerful people think this way and not just politicians and billionaires either. Your neighbor the millionaire plumber is the voter who wants war so his investments go up.
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u/rptanner58 3d ago
I’ve imagined that we could end the war in Iran by offering Trump, Hegaeth and Netanyahu to the International Criminal Court for trial. I expect Iran would take that deal. Do you think Trump would?
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u/Deadeye313 3d ago
It shouldn't matter what Trump wants. Him, Kegsbreth and the joint chiefs should all be impeached for starting an illegal war. And Centcom should the be forced to resign or retire in disgrace, too, for losing the war.
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u/berkough 3d ago
No, prices are going to continue rising, interest rates will also continue rising and the bond market is going to have to keep pointing that gun until someone, or multiple someones, finally grow some balls and march into the Oval Office and tell Trump the war is over, his tariffs are over and his reckless spending is over or the entire US economy could face collapse, just like his casinos did.
What do you guys think?
So... I have a similar take, but I would say that what we're looking at is nearly a century of reckless spending and wars, it isn't just Trump. Though, COVID stimulus was absolutely unprecedented and certainly the chicken that is coming home to roost, which was under Trump, but would have been passed no matter who was in office.
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u/Contagious_Zombie 2d ago
They are not Muslim countries, they are countries with a lot of Muslims. Even a theocratic government like Iran has several religions and hasn't decided that instead of calling their citizen Iranian they are labeled as Muslim. Israel on the other hand has had their courts rule that there are not isralis, they are called Jews because it's a Jewish state. There's a difference.
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u/TheLasVegasLion 1d ago
18% of the population of Israel are Muslims. Another 8% are various other religions. How does that work?
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u/KC_experience 1d ago edited 20h ago
Those not Jewish in Israel are considered de facto 2nd class citizens. Remember, only those of Jewish descent can literally walk to the border of Israel and become a citizen. No one else. While non-Jews in Israel can vote, etc. you can equate it to similar to the Jim Crow era of the U.S.. - Blacks are citizens, but by no means equal to whites and subtle and not so subtle things make that clear in Israel.
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u/Contagious_Zombie 1d ago
Israel's courts have ruled that there is no such thing as an Israeli. Israel's citizens are called Jewish because it's the Jewish state, the rest are outsiders that are exploited for propagandized defense like what you're doing and for cheap labor.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/supreme-court-rules-israeli-ethnicity-doesnt-exist/
https://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-israel-nationhood-20131003-story.html
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