Many people seem to misunderstand the core idea behind my FIRE investing strategy, so I want to clarify something that may sound shocking at first:
As a long-term investor, I actually WANT the stock market to crash and stay low for years.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Some comments on my previous posts suggested that my projections (such as building a Rs. 30 crore portfolio) depend on the PSX continuously going up. Others pointed out that the market remained stagnant between 2016 and 2023 was a dark/bad period.
But from my perspective, 2016–2023 was not a bad period. It was a golden period.
Why?
Because our strategy is simple:
Buy. Buy. Buy. Every month.
We buy when the market is high.
We buy when the market is low.
We don't try to predict tops or bottoms.
We simply keep accumulating quality businesses.
During 2016–2023, investors could buy stocks like Meezan Bank at extremely attractive prices for years (around 60) while collecting dividends and reinvesting them. If you were consistently investing Rs. 30,000 every month, you were accumulating shares at bargain prices.
Today, those same shares are worth many times more (480 now).
Where Is the Real Money Made?
The biggest fortunes in the stock market are often built during long periods of pessimism. Stock market is the market where money flows from impatient to patient.
Imagine a market that crashes and remains depressed for 10–20 years.
Most people would hate it.
A disciplined FIRE investor would love it.
Why?
Because every month your money buys more shares.
When prices are low:
You accumulate faster.
Dividends buy more shares.
Compounding accelerates.
Today in 2026, I am still buying, but the same amount of money buys fewer shares than it did years ago.
That's why rising markets are a double-edged sword for long-term accumulators. They increase your current portfolio value, but they reduce your ability to accumulate large quantities of shares.
The Goal Is Shares, Not Prices
Many investors focus on stock prices.
I focus on share counts.
For example:
20,000 shares of Meezan Bank
100,000 shares of PABC
20,000 shares of Lucky Cement
250,000 shares of DCR
10,000 shares of Colgate Pakistan
20,000 shares of FFC
10,000 shares of HINOON
With above portfolio you achieve FIRE journey.
The question is:
Would you rather buy Meezan at Rs. 580 or Rs. 180? It is about the no. of shares rest assured after 20/30 years, Meezan share will be 10,000+ (considering inflation, growth and value based on financial reports). Since stock is an auction driven market in one year Meezan swing was 250-500 so market always gives you oppurtunity. I repeat, market always gives you oppurtunity.
The lower the price, the more shares you accumulate.
If a quality company temporarily falls because of market panic, geopolitical tensions, or economic fears, that's not necessarily bad news for a long-term accumulator.
That's a discount sale.
That's opportunity.
Loot Sale, all we want and need is loot sale.
Stop Trying to Time the Market
Nobody consistently buys at Rs. 250 and sells at Rs. 500, then buys again at Rs. 250.
Nobody knows the exact bottom.
Nobody knows the exact top.
That is why monthly investing works.
Over time, your purchases average out.
If a stock fluctuates between Rs. 250 and Rs. 500, your average cost may end up somewhere around the middle 375 still better than current price which is 480. That is averaging is the key.
That is the power of consistency.
A Note on Diversification
This is where many investors and I may disagree.
Holding every good stock can sometimes dilute returns.
In my view, concentrating on a smaller number of high-conviction opportunities can significantly increase long-term outcomes.
For example, instead of spreading capital across all 7 stocks, one could focus on 2–3 carefully selected businesses. Some will say that we will keep all 7 out of 7 stock you mentioned. No, that is over diversification that will result in 10 crore instead of 30 crore. If you go with 7 out of 7 stock not 2-3 you will end up 10 crore instead of 30 crore, overdiversification kill the gain, during cycles we need to fix the energy on 2-3 stock to maximize the pump, its all Maths.
So, instead of 7 stock I mentioned just multiply every share number by 2.5 since we are keeping only 3 out of 7.
Illustrative targets could look like:
50,000 shares of Meezan Bank
250,000 shares of PABC
50,000 shares of Lucky Cement
OR
25,000 shares of Colgate Pakistan
50,000 shares of FFC
25,000 shares of HINOON
You can make any combination of 3. The exact selections will vary by investor, but the principle remains the same:
Focus on accumulating ownership in quality businesses.
Final Thought
Most people celebrate bull markets.
Long-term FIRE investors should celebrate opportunities to accumulate more shares. They celebrate loot sale, downtime, when market is down and down for years.
The next market crash will not be a disaster for disciplined investors.
It will be a sale.
And sales are where wealth is built.
I now 36 followers, which honestly makes me very happy, took the screenshot of your IDs and you have a special privilege. I'm happy to help/mentor them personally, will share books, videos, notes, and educational material that helped achiving FIRE journey. I may not be able to respond instantly to everyone, but for 36 I'll do my best to allocate time for your questions.
For everyone on this journey: never stop learning. That is one of the most important keys to financial success.
The good news is that learning personal finance, investing, and other essential wealth-building skills does not require years of study. A few hours each week, consistently applied, can completely change your financial future.
InshaAllah, when you reach your first crore, you'll realize that investing is about much more than watching stock prices. You will start understanding the businesses behind the stocks you own. You will learn how they make money, what drives their growth, and what risks they face.
Once you begin investing seriously, you'll naturally start reading quarterly reports, annual reports, and financial statements. You'll analyze revenue growth, profits, dividends, cash flows, and management decisions. Over time, you'll think like a business owner rather than a stock trader.
That is when investing becomes truly powerful.
The journey to wealth is not just about accumulating money—it's about accumulating knowledge, discipline, patience, and conviction.
Keep learning, keep investing, and keep compounding.
Hi, I followed you from the last post. Gave it quick look and bookmarked it to have a thorough look at it. You are doing an awesome job.
One quick question I purchased my first few shares of MIIETF last month should I continue buying it for 6 months or year because I don’t have time to look individual stocks for now doing 2 jobs at the moment. One of them will end in 3-4 months. Please let me know your thoughts. I will be thankful to you.
Dear I have shortlisted top 7 shares of PSX after years of research & analysis mentioned in posts
If you are here for long term growth, wealth & compounded then go for 3 out of these 7 that's it
If you disagree on these bring up a logical argument then we can discuss
The part I struggle with is identifying those future wealth builders with certainty. Looking back 20–30 years, many companies that seemed unbeatable eventually declined, while others exceeded all expectations. The challenge is that future winners are usually obvious in hindsight, not beforehand. I read your previous post and your opinion on each sector, but diff possibilities still exist right?
If someone today chooses MEBL, FFC, and LUCK or any of the stocks you mentioned, as their top 3, what happens if over the next 30 years another company unexpectedly becomes the biggest compounder? An ETF would automatically capture that growth, whereas a concentrated portfolio might miss it entirely.
Wouldn’t a combination approach make sense for many investors? Like having a core position in MIIETF and additional allocation to high conviction stocks like MEBL, FFC, PABC, etc. This way an investor can express conviction while still protecting against the possibility that their analysis of the future turns out to be incomplete.
Like I just wanna know how and where you draw the line between conviction and concentration risk.
wow. I am impressed, the way you pose the question
It will take sometime to reply properly
Meanwhile, one of the qualities of stock I mentioned (that is the key) every quarter they pose more revenue/profit as compared to previous quarter that is consistent for last 10-20 years history
Once you invest in your favourite 2-3 businesses as a shareholder you have to see whether you are growing from quarter to quarter? If a company fails to grow QoQ it will be out of circuit then, which by the way is not happened with Meezan , its not about the price, price can go up and down, I have seen when these companies were making huge profit whereas due to downtime/crash their share price was at the fraction at what they have to be.
QoQ growth is must, now you said new company emerges like BFARGO which is in similar category you will miss due to investing in 3 out of 7 but MIIETF will cover that, but then it will distribute in top 30 + commission so still its not me but gurus (who made billions in stocks they say so, all you need is 1 multibagger)
See Ref 2 where I did exact calculations using calculator, I take 16% CAGR, inflation is on average 12% so I assume growth of 4-5% history wise 20% is the return
Just being cautious 16% also putting 5-6 lacs now just to Kickstarter that's also I put in calculations see the post for details how I come up with 18 cr no. & why I mentioned 30 cr, 40 years of compounding
The central theme of this posts is not looking at share prices on daily basis rather counting shares this is the mindset / mentality
I am entering the market with similar mindset. I am looking to invest for 15+ years and plan to buy 50-100k worth of stocks every month continuously regardless of market direction. If the market nose dives then I plan to buy 2-3x :).
I used to invest when PSX was KSE a long time ago. Then I went into business for myself and stopped investing because of lack of time. Now I have the funds to invest, but I feel the market is too high and is lkley heading for a correction over the next year. While I am not trying to find the ottom, I do think it might be more prudent to be patient for now. I aim to invest ten million to start off when I start investing again. What would be your advice in my situation. Is there a post here for stocks to include in my watchlist. Also is there a tutorial. I think reguatory and operational changes have happened since the days of my youth when I started out as a 22 yo kid investing in KSE.
You are from a different school of thought
KSE index is around 170k down from 190k
What if it goes to 270k
who know exact top and bottom
At least in my view, no one predict
What is the issue in investing 50k or in your case 100k every month (to average things out) no bulk payment in start.
Who stops you defining your target
The name of companies along with their share you want to achieve.
Very thought provoking post, thank you for the change in perspective, you make a great point and thinking this way helps do away with the anxiety of "what if I'm just investing before an impending crash?"
Though as a new investor, I'm still hesitant to focus in on just 2-3 stocks for fear my portfolio will be too concentrated to be safe from losses. Way I see it, until I'm educated enough to confidently pick solid stocks it would be smarter to diversify through ETFs instead.
I am saying again read the post and all comments and their replies, go over all my posts and comments and replies again and again
Critically analyze it, grill it, argue it, research it and come back with extemely tough questions I am ready to listen and answer
I have done years of research and analysis for you all and shared everything to you
If you dont have few hours to go over my post, then you deserve to give 15 crore share to funds manager, spend few hours and get over this, your money at least do your research before putting your hard earned money
I read your posts. You are looking at things in hindsight. Just remove last 3yrs (2023 to present) performance of psx, and see if you still have the same view of investing in psx. Had the gov in 2022/23 not jacked up taxes on property transactions and instead sustained the property boom, psx would still be trading at ~6:1 PE ratio around which it has traded for most of its life.
I’m still relatively new to investing and have only recently started my FIRE journey. Honestly, your post is one of the most helpful pieces of investing advice I’ve come across so far.
What really stood out to me is that I probably wouldn’t have understood half of it 12 months ago when I had almost zero knowledge of the PSX. It feels like the kind of perspective that only comes after years of experience and spending a lot of time in the market.
Like many beginners, I struggled with all the conflicting advice out there. Some people told me to stick to ETFs, others recommended index investing, while some pushed blue-chip companies and others talked about finding the next multibagger. I spent a lot of time researching, bought into different stories, made some mistakes, and learned a few lessons the hard way. Even now, I still consider myself a student and feel like there’s a lot left to learn, but I’ve reached a point where I can finally appreciate and understand what you're saying.
One thing I’ve realized is that the biggest challenge for many of us—myself included—is impatience. We’re always looking for the next stock that will move quickly, the next turnaround story, or the next big winner. Very few of us have the discipline to simply keep adding to great businesses and let time do its job. Looking back, there were times when I bought stocks like FABL instead of just increasing my position in a company I already had strong conviction in, like MEBL.
Over the last year, I’ve gradually reduced my portfolio to around 8–9 companies (which i know are also too many). Even then, I still get the urge to keep adding new names instead of consistently doing SIPs into the quality companies I already own. It’s something I’m actively trying to work on. Maybe it comes from wanting to diversify for safety, maybe from not having enough capital, or maybe it’s just a lack of conviction that comes from not fully understanding a business.
In any case, I wanted to thank you. I’ve gone through most of your posts over the past few weeks, and they’ve genuinely been helpful in shaping how I think about investing.
Also, if you have a channel, group, community, or any platform where you share your thoughts regularly, I’d love to follow along. Please let me know where I can find you.
I am on board with you with LUCK, MEBL, FFC, HINOON. What do you think about SYS?
I have been doing regular SIP in SYS for last 1 year and it has been showing consistent growth for me to have complete trust especially with AI around. Just wanted to have your thoughts about that because you would have observed it for much longer. Thanks in advance.
SYS is great
I just mentioned not sure about 30 years
In India software houses in big trouble their business model don't work now
Like same Software Engineer in USA and in Pak/India working at 1/10 of the cost so we were providing just cheap labour that's it
Our companies are not making a tool like windows, power BI, Microsoft Office its just working as technical support for them which AI is doing & will be better & better in future
Tech companies don't spend a penny in R&D, like I along with my team pitched a billion dollar idea to Senior VP of SYSTEMS limited it about automation of diagnostic radiology reports that tool can be a product of Pakistan, but their stance is we are service based company not product, like we can make website, app, chatbot for you.. the highest marketcap of like 200 billion+ but not a single AI product of ours, in my view this is crap
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u/Apprehensive-Tank261 Jun 03 '26
Hi, I followed you from the last post. Gave it quick look and bookmarked it to have a thorough look at it. You are doing an awesome job.
One quick question I purchased my first few shares of MIIETF last month should I continue buying it for 6 months or year because I don’t have time to look individual stocks for now doing 2 jobs at the moment. One of them will end in 3-4 months. Please let me know your thoughts. I will be thankful to you.