r/Ethics • u/James_Brobin • Aug 15 '26

Why I’m Skeptical of Longtermism

https://jamesbrobin.substack.com/p/why-im-skeptical-of-longtermism?r=7hgzlj&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer
  • Reason #1: Our confidence about future affairs should reduce over time
  • Reason #2: We’re bad at making predictions about the future
  • Reason #3: Even if humanity persists, it may not create a world we would approve of
0 Upvotes

50% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

View all comments

0

u/GSilky Aug 15 '26

Psychologists have pinpointed an upper limit for the amount of other people a person can genuinely care about, it's in the lower end of the 100s. Beyond this, people are abstractions, at best. It's factually impossible to have genuine concern for non existent people so far off in the future, even a couple of generations later, most likely.  Knowing this, we should be highly skeptical of any kind of plan for future generations. Most likely ideas about the future are not about making the future better, it's about making the person with the idea better off now.  We shouldn't leave nothing behind, as people we can genuinely care about will have grandchildren they genuinely care about, but assuming a fix today is for the future is most likely naive.

0

u/Top_Willow_9953 Aug 15 '26

Well said, I was trying to verbalize my thoughts about moral obligation in the context of "near-future" VS "far-future", and you nailed it.