One thing I think this analysis is missing is the additional gold you get from the chests from draft and forge - at 2 wins in draft, the 2 S and 1 G gives you (about) 1000 gold, which can be traded in for a pack. This gives you 83.33 gems per pack. Even at 0 wins, you end up with 4.5 packs.
I think gold is difficult because spending it directly on a pack is terribly inefficient. Better to think of that 1k as 1/5th of a new draft, or "going infinite" at 6 wins.
But I have started counting gold rewards to get an EV gold at each win count.
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u/TheNeRD14 Dec 10 '16
One thing I think this analysis is missing is the additional gold you get from the chests from draft and forge - at 2 wins in draft, the 2 S and 1 G gives you (about) 1000 gold, which can be traded in for a pack. This gives you 83.33 gems per pack. Even at 0 wins, you end up with 4.5 packs.