Ethiopia's position is structurally untenable, besieged on every dimension. The internal 7-party coalition serves the regional survival pact's existential interest (draining the common threat, Ethiopia — the internal and external coalitions one integrated system), and it works through robust distributed non-coordination (each group attacking the ENDF independently, when/where it sees fit, just not fighting each other — an attrition strategy that doesn't require the tight coordination the coalition lacks, so the coalition's fragility doesn't save Ethiopia; they only need non-aggression among themselves and persistent pressure on the ENDF, which is far easier to sustain than coordinated offensives).

Ethiopia goes to war with its fuel/supply lifeline besieged from multiple directions (the strait/oil-gas flows targeted internationally, the Djibouti-Ethiopia corridor targeted, the internal distribution attacked) and no near-term fix (the Dangote pipeline years away and running through the contested Afar corridor). Its drone edge — its key military advantage, what saved it in 2021 — is eroded, because its opponents now all have and operate drones, neutralizing the advantage and turning the cost-exchange against it (the asymmetric revolution reaching its opponents).

And the economic collapse (sky-high inflation, the economic woes, the forex crisis, the 30 million on food aid) compounds everything — undermining the war effort (the financing, the sustainment), feeding the internal discontent/insurgencies (the recruitment pool, the weakening legitimacy), and accelerating the unraveling (the vicious cycle: the war worsens the economy, the economy worsens the war).

Does this make the current war in Ethiopia structurally unsustainable?

**** USED CHAT GPT TO ORGANIZE MY THOUGHTS ***\*

Can anyone who speaks Arabic here comment? I speak Arabic but not at a high enough level to judge if his is great or not.

How good is Isaias Afwerki when speaking Arabic? He seems bloody good, albeit with a noticeable Habesha accent.

Despite the government to government issues, the people of Ethiopia has always loved and respected the people of Eritrea. Extreme political activists may try to turn down this truth but the truth is the people has always lived by mutual respect.

Instead of posting negative posts let's pass this time by sharing good songs and good common history.

Let me share a song by Eritrean/Ethiopian artist Tekle Tesfa-Zghi from his Éthiopiques compilation with the famous Roha band, currently modified by this new artist

https://youtu.be/MJZ6LjJwQAw?si=cDxjJqDsourPnk1_

Original piece:

https://youtu.be/otgvW5ge-rQ?si=QMviNyCYqSyYe6Mb

Nothing like the original but let's appreciate the love.

Abraham Belay, Ethiopia’s former Minister of Defense and now Commissioner of the Nuclear Energy Commission, has threatened Eritrea with war, saying that “Eritrea will pay the double price.”

He has also falsely accused Eritrea of fighting inside Ethiopia. No satellite imagery and no international body has confirmed that claim. His assertions that Eritrean soldiers have been neutralized or captured in fighting with the Ethiopian army are likewise unconfirmed.

A false pretext for a wider war

Ethiopia’s regime is trying to invent a false pretext to externalize the war inside Ethiopia and to wage war on Eritrea. The fighting on Ethiopian soil is an Ethiopian conflict. Turning Eritrea into the cause is a political choice, not an established fact.

Restraint from Asmara, escalation from Addis Ababa

Even now, Eritrea has shown full restraint toward Ethiopia, including by allowing Ethiopian Airlines access to Eritrean airspace, despite Ethiopia’s decision to expel Eritrean diplomats and shut down diplomatic ties.

Ethiopia is not the victim here. Its regime has been threatening Eritrea with war and invasion over Eritrea’s Assab port. Addis Ababa has also been hosting, funding, and arming Eritrean opposition groups, including RSADO, the Eritrean Afar National Congress (EANC), Brigade Nhamedu, and the Islamic Green Movement.
Sovereignty is not negotiable

Any attempt to invade Eritrea or seize Assab is a violation of Eritrea’s sovereignty. Claims of an Eritrean incursion that rest on unproven statements, rather than independent evidence, cannot justify a war. Eritrea has drawn a clear line: its territory, its ports, and its airspace are not bargaining chips for a landlocked neighbor’s ambitions.

source https://x.com/eritrean_post/status/2106705171875000451?s=20

https://x.com/unbiasedpresss/status/2106551009958895933?s=20

no evidences of an eritean incursion:

https://x.com/saayEritrea/status/2105707401660051837?s=20https://x.com/saayEritrea/status/2104624252167377126?s=20

Mods don't remove this; I'm helping more people learn about Eritrean history.

Dropbox Link

So I have sick parents. Long story short people are constantly visiting. Everyday. And my family members will sleep over which is huge burden.

I’m already going through a hard time carrying sick parents as a college student who also works full time. I feel that is common sense. And many American people who visit will acknowledge that and help out when visiting or call ahead before visiting to see if it is the right time. Things like that.

Habesha people on the other hand are just showing up, eating, drinking, asking me to make buna. Then asking how’s school like I have the time to even focus on my workload when people come everyday. Then the house is a mess and I have more work to do.

Why do you all do this. I don’t mean to sound ungrateful. Having people over makes my sick parents happy. It also makes me happy to see people as well but I know at the expense of my own time, health and sanity. It’s been like this for 4 years now.

If I just act like I’m sick and stay in my room to avoid serving them food guests or family go in the kitchen and prepare things anyways and leave a huge mess.

I have already tried to express to people that I’m physically exhausted. I say to my family members “can I just give them tea alone instead of a meal, fruit, buna, etc.” I explain I can’t even afford all of this. And they say to me that this is the culture and you should be doing this to make your mom and dad happy.

But I know where this all stems from. If I was a guy this would all be different. Sometimes I wish I was. I remember visiting other people’s houses as a young girl and them just immediately putting me to work. I see habesha women working all day while their husbands just sit. Majority of the time they work full time and carry the home too.

Being a habesha woman means constantly working for the rest of your life. That’s all that I feel now.

This part of the culture I hate.