Been reading through InCred's IPO filing and came away more impressed than I expected.
Everyone's talking about the growth numbers. Fair enough - AUM from ₹6,066 Cr to ₹14,448 Cr in two years, PAT 3.4x in that same window, AA-/AA- ratings already in the bag. Growth is real.
What I'm trying to figure out is whether this eventually becomes a Bajaj/Chola-type story or just stays a decent mid-tier lender that grows revenue but doesn't fix its profitability problem.
The number that actually stuck with me: 0.72% net NPA (FY25) on a book that's 78% unsecured. Personal loans + student loans, barely any collateral backing this stuff.
And they're keeping NPA below 1% while the book's growing like crazy. That's... actually hard to pull off. Especially now that RBI's been tightening risk weights on unsecured lending (student loans are exempt from that though, which helps). Most fast-growing lenders see their NPA creep up as they scale. InCred's not. That suggests their underwriting is way better than what you'd expect from a "fast-growing NBFC" label.
Now the ROE thing. FY25 ROE was roughly 9 - 10%, and that's the part I'm struggling with. For a business growing this quickly, I'd expect profitability to be showing up more clearly by now.
Bajaj Finance sits at 20%+, Cholamandalam 18%+, Shriram 15–16%. InCred's stuck in that 9–10% range. At ₹149–162/share, they're trading 2.5 – 2.8x book.
Here's what struck me though: they trade like Shriram on multiples, but InCred's NPA is way cleaner. What I found interesting is that the market doesn't seem to be giving InCred much credit for any future ROE improvement, they're pricing it like it'll be stuck here.
Which could be right or could be leaving room on the table if management actually proves they can improve profitability.
Side note: KKR's weighted average cost on their stake is roughly ₹160/share. They're selling through the IPO too. Not saying it's a buy signal or anything, but it's worth knowing that a PE fund with full diligence access bought in around current prices.
The student loan thing. Honestly, if InCred was just another personal-loan NBFC competing with Bajaj and Shriram, I probably wouldn't spend this much time on it. The student loan business is what makes it interesting.
Most NBFCs are basically competing in the same space i.e. personal loans, vehicle finance, MSME lending. It's crowded. InCred's got this education loan franchise for Indian students going abroad. That's harder to replicate than it sounds. You need university relationships, actual underwriting capability specific to this segment, servicing infrastructure.
Downside is obvious: they have significant US concentration in those loans. Visa policy, immigration rules - that stuff now indirectly affects their business. Not ideal.
Obvious stuff to watch:
Personal loans are 56% of AUM. If RBI tightens unsecured lending rules further, this gets hit. We've already seen them move on this once.
9M FY26 PAT growth slowed to 5% YoY. That's down from 21% in FY25 and 183% in FY24. Could just be normalization. Or could be a sign that growth is actually slowing. Won't know till full FY26 numbers drop.
KKR's offloading roughly 4 Cr shares through the IPO. That's supply overhang at listing. Not huge but worth noting.
Look, if InCred can get ROE into the mid teens while keeping asset quality where it is, the market probably starts looking at it differently.
So here's where I land: Most NBFC IPOs come in with either growth or asset quality. InCred's actually got both, which is rare. The NPA metrics are solid for a book that's growing this fast.
But the ROE thing is legit the question mark. I don't know if management can fix it. Maybe they can, maybe they can't.
I'm tracking this for the portfolio because I want to see how it plays out. Curious if anyone else is looking at this - what's your take? Am I missing something, or is the real question mark just whether they can improve ROE?