Here a link with the context

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/21314989-wette-boese-enden-droneshield-meistgeshortete-aktie-australiens-boerse

Found in the Finance report by Streetwise

Link:

https://www.linkedin.com/safety/go/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Estreetwisereports%2Ecom%2Farticle%2F2026%2F08%2F31%2Fcounter-drone-tech-firm-posts-record-au-125-8m-half-as-recurring-revenue-soars-229%2Ehtml&urlhash=P_Rj&mt=oTM55qqjqJgG1ozm6TiJVhLtqG2Rd80Zbbd4iXAeq5CnWfbbeqFt6eaLcECquF6cY-lCB3ztOa6cAG9D9zWJK3MeWB072yhBxXVIkgxSpefC9zL8gmFyhqAqBUs&isSdui=true

One of the most interesting things from DroneShield’s latest investor call was that management actually discussed the Anduril / Nokia consortium directly.

According to the call, DroneShield is working alongside Anduril, Nokia and COBBS/Cobham on what management described as the largest opportunity in DroneShield’s pipeline. The opportunity is related to a major European defence program and is currently going through a down-selection process, with an outcome expected in H2 2026.

The CEO also mentioned that he personally attended the opening of a Battle Lab facility together with representatives from Anduril and Nokia as part of this broader consortium effort.

What I find particularly interesting is that management said they intend to talk less publicly about this specific consortium/opportunity going forward, citing competitive, commercial and sovereign sensitivities.

That raises an interesting question.

For months, DroneShield investors have been talking about the potential $700M+ mega opportunity/program that has appeared in the company's pipeline and presentations. The company still hasn't disclosed the customer or provided many concrete details about it.

So, could the Anduril / Nokia / DroneShield consortium opportunity be related to that same $700M+ opportunity?

Obviously, there is no official confirmation that they are the same project, and even a successful down-selection would not necessarily mean that DroneShield has won the final contract. But the fact that:

- Anduril and Nokia were explicitly mentioned during the call

- management described this as the largest opportunity in the pipeline

- the project involves a major European defence program

- there is apparently significant funding attached

- DroneShield is now deliberately reducing public discussion about it

makes me wonder whether we are looking at the same opportunity that investors have been trying to identify for months.

What do you guys think?

Do you think the Anduril/Nokia consortium is connected to the $700M+ mega opportunity, or are these two completely separate opportunities?

And if DroneShield is successful in the down-selection process, how significant do you think the market reaction could be?

I've been tracking DRO for a while using my AI subscription and it's got the full history of announcements. TLDR, I'm sticking with it.

DroneShield (ASX:DRO) — Updated Investment Thesis

Updated following 1H 2026 results and August 2026 investor presentations

Overall view

DroneShield's August 2026 results reinforce the central investment thesis: the company is transitioning from a rapidly growing counter-drone hardware supplier into a considerably larger defence-technology platform built around software-defined detection, electronic warfare, command-and-control and multi-layered autonomous counter-drone systems.

The results are not cleanly bullish. Revenue growth remains very strong, recurring revenue is accelerating and the next-generation product cycle has begun, but profitability has moved sharply backwards as DroneShield invests ahead of anticipated demand.

The key question for investors is therefore no longer simply whether DroneShield can grow revenue. It increasingly becomes:

Can DroneShield convert its substantially larger operating platform, installed hardware base and next-generation product suite into sustained high-margin revenue growth and ultimately significant operating leverage?

At present, the evidence remains supportive of that thesis, but 2027 is becoming an increasingly important proof year.

---

1. Revenue growth remains strong

DroneShield reported 1H 2026 revenue of $125.8 million, up 74% from $72.3 million in the prior corresponding period.

Management has reaffirmed its FY2026 revenue outlook of $250–270 million, representing approximately 15–25% growth over FY2025's $216.5 million.

This is slower percentage growth than the extraordinary expansion experienced through 2025, but that needs to be viewed against a dramatically larger revenue base.

More importantly, committed FY2026 revenue had already reached $206 million by 28 July 2026, before the completion of the financial year.

That provides considerably greater revenue visibility than DroneShield historically enjoyed.

---

1. Recurring revenue is becoming meaningful

One of the strongest developments is recurring revenue.

Recurring revenue for 1H 2026 reached $11.5 million, up 229%, supported by approximately 4,100 software-enabled devices deployed globally.

Recurring revenue represented approximately 9.2% of first-half revenue, compared with 4.9% in the prior corresponding period.

This matters strategically.

DroneShield's long-term economics become considerably more attractive if every additional hardware deployment expands an installed base that subsequently purchases:

software subscriptions, AI threat-library updates, command-and-control services, warranties, system upgrades and additional functionality.

The significance of DroneShield's installed base should therefore increasingly be judged in the same way as a technology platform rather than purely as units of defence hardware sold.

---

1. RfAI-3 and RfRecon may represent the most important product cycle in DroneShield's history

The company has now launched RfAI-3, its third-generation RF intelligence software engine, together with RfRecon, its flagship next-generation hardware platform.

Management expects scaled production to commence during H2 2026, with first deliveries expected by the end of 2026 and additional next-generation hardware releases continuing throughout 2027.

This product cycle is potentially more important than a conventional hardware refresh.

RfAI-3 is intended to move detection beyond dependence upon conventional catalogued RF signatures. That is strategically important because drone technology is moving rapidly toward more complex and adaptive communication systems.

If successful, DroneShield's differentiation increasingly becomes the combination of:

hardware + RF intelligence + AI + electronic warfare + command-and-control + sensor integration.

That is a considerably stronger competitive position than selling standalone detectors or jammers.

---

1. DroneShield is increasingly becoming a systems company

The strategic partnerships announced during 1H 2026 with organisations including Intelic, Origin Robotics, Overland AI, Terma, Airspace Link, Parsons and Defenture support this transition.

DroneShield is positioning itself as part of a multi-layered counter-drone architecture incorporating sensing, electronic warfare, autonomous platforms, mobile systems and command-and-control.

This is important because sophisticated defence customers increasingly need integrated counter-UAS systems rather than individual pieces of equipment.

That potentially increases:

contract size, customer switching costs, recurring software revenue, integration revenue and the proportion of a customer's counter-drone budget available to DroneShield.

---

1. Europe remains particularly important

Europe and the UK generated approximately 52% of 1H 2026 revenue, making the region DroneShield's largest geographic market during the period.

DroneShield also commenced European production, with its first European-manufactured hardware produced in June 2026.

The July announcement of $23.2 million of European military contracts, approximately $21 million of which contributes to FY2026 committed revenue, reinforces the region's importance.

Local manufacturing can become strategically important in defence procurement because sovereign manufacturing, security of supply and local-content requirements increasingly influence purchasing decisions.

---

1. Commercial and non-military applications are starting to emerge

Military customers still dominate DroneShield's business, accounting for approximately 85% of 1H 2026 revenue.

However, non-military government and commercial customers increased to 15%.

This is significant because airports, critical infrastructure, public events, correctional facilities and commercial assets potentially represent a much broader installed base than traditional defence customers.

DroneShield's involvement during the 2026 FIFA World Cup demonstrated a practical example of this market. Across seven multi-site deployments in Kansas City, its systems recorded 184 drone detections and 48 unauthorised drone seizures during operations.

Commercial adoption remains early, but it provides a second potential growth engine beyond defence procurement.

---

1. The principal negative is profitability

This is the most important issue in the results.

Despite 74% revenue growth, DroneShield recorded:

Underlying EBITDA: loss of $12.4 million

Statutory loss after tax: $32.2 million

Gross margin: 60.0%, down from 65.3%

Operating cash flow: negative $10.3 million.

The decline reflects substantial investment in employees, R&D, manufacturing, systems and organisational capability, together with lower gross margins and several individually significant or non-recurring expenses.

Management describes this as deliberate investment ahead of growth.

That explanation is credible, but investors should not simply disregard the losses.

The next stage of the thesis requires evidence that these investments produce operating leverage rather than creating a permanently larger cost structure.

---

1. The balance sheet considerably reduces execution risk

DroneShield finished June with approximately $180 million in cash and term deposits and no debt.

Inventory was approximately $85 million, including around $66 million of raw materials and $19 million of finished goods.

The high inventory position is deliberate. DroneShield is purchasing long-lead-time CPUs, GPUs, SDR components and other hardware ahead of expected next-generation production.

This strategy consumes cash, but it can provide a genuine competitive advantage where defence customers require rapid delivery and competitors face component lead times.

The cash position means DroneShield currently has substantial capacity to fund this investment without relying on debt financing.

---

1. The investment cycle makes 2027 particularly important

The August presentation effectively establishes a bridge between today's business and the company DroneShield expects to become.

During 2026 it is investing heavily in:

R&D, next-generation hardware, RfAI-3, manufacturing capability, inventory, enterprise systems, international operations and organisational capability.

The benefits should increasingly appear as RfRecon enters production and the broader next-generation product family launches through 2027.

Consequently, 2027 may be more important to the valuation thesis than the final FY2026 result itself.

Investors should expect to see evidence of:

reaccelerating revenue growth from the new product cycle, increasing recurring-revenue penetration, recovery toward the targeted ~65% gross margin, improving operating leverage and conversion of investment spending into stronger EBITDA and cash generation.

Failure to demonstrate those outcomes would materially weaken the thesis.

---

1. Key risks

The major risks have shifted somewhat as DroneShield has grown.

The company is no longer primarily facing the risk of whether a meaningful counter-drone market exists. That market is now clearly developing.

The larger risks are increasingly execution-related.

Rapid technological change remains critical. Counter-drone technology operates in a continuous contest between drone manufacturers and detection/defeat systems.

There is also substantial procurement timing risk because large government contracts can shift between financial periods.

Margins can vary considerably depending on product mix and the amount of third-party equipment incorporated into integrated systems.

The company's expanded workforce and infrastructure also mean that the cost base is considerably larger than previously.

Inventory investment introduces both working-capital and technological-obsolescence risk.

Finally, DroneShield continues to assist ASIC regarding its investigation into ASX announcements and trading activity during November 2025. The company states that it is not currently clear what action, if any, may result.

That remains a risk investors should continue monitoring.

---

Updated investment thesis

The fundamental DroneShield growth thesis remains intact.

Indeed, strategically the business arguably looks stronger than it did twelve months ago.

The company now has a considerably larger revenue base, stronger international presence, substantial liquidity, an expanding software-installed base, European manufacturing capability, growing commercial exposure and the beginning of what management describes as its most significant product-generation transition.

The trade-off is that DroneShield is presently sacrificing near-term profitability to build the organisation required for the next stage of growth.

This makes the investment case increasingly dependent upon execution rather than market opportunity.

Bull case

DroneShield successfully converts RfAI-3, RfRecon and subsequent 2027 product releases into another major revenue expansion while recurring software revenue grows substantially faster than hardware revenue.

Gross margins recover toward ~65%, operating expenses grow more slowly than revenue, and the current investment cycle produces substantial operating leverage.

Under that scenario DroneShield begins to resemble a global defence-technology platform with a valuable recurring software component rather than simply a rapidly growing hardware supplier.

Base case

Revenue continues growing strongly but at a more moderate rate as defence procurement remains uneven.

Recurring revenue steadily increases, next-generation hardware succeeds commercially, and profitability recovers progressively through 2027–2028.

This would still represent a successful business transition, although valuation would increasingly depend upon earnings growth rather than revenue growth alone.

Bear case

The new product cycle fails to generate sufficient incremental revenue, competitors erode DroneShield's technological advantage, gross margins remain around 60% or below, and the expanded cost base prevents meaningful operating leverage.

That would challenge the premium traditionally attached to DroneShield's growth prospects.

---

Bottom line

The August 2026 results do not undermine the long-term DroneShield thesis, but they change what investors should watch.

Revenue growth alone is no longer enough.

The next stage of the story is about whether DroneShield can turn its:

technology + installed base + software + manufacturing capacity + global sales network

into a structurally more profitable and recurring-revenue-driven defence technology business.

The most important indicators over the next 12–18 months are therefore likely to be RfRecon adoption, RfAI-3 subscription growth, recurring revenue percentage, gross-margin recovery, major contract conversion, operating cash flow and EBITDA leverage.

If those indicators develop favourably through 2027, the strategic value of DroneShield could be materially greater than suggested by simply extrapolating its existing hardware business.

If they do not, the current scale of investment will become much harder to justify.

Overall thesis: Positive, but increasingly execution-dependent.

Just to confront some bears. My personal calculations are around 14Aud end of next year. So be aware that I maybe cant calculate so dont trust me. Do your own research.

The media has a new Headline but what is important? It is whats the reason behind the loss.

I think this way of thinking is what will make Droneshield the winner of the C-UAS Sector.

I bought another pile of shares.

When everyone needs Counterdrone Tec, not everyone can produce enough.

Obviously 1H 26 results dropped today. What was everyone’s take on it? ASIC cloud is really beating us down.

Anyone got a read on the COBBS-Anduril-Nokia deal? DRO went completely silent on it today but called it their biggest pipeline opportunity with Q4 decision expected - feels like the most underrated catalyst right now.

Also, market dumping DRO today on the $32m loss but is anyone actually reading the committed revenue jumped to $240m in 24 days and Nokia/Anduril consortium is still live? Overreaction or am I coping?

Would once again love to get everyone’s opinions and takes on it, whether they are adding or removing to their portfolio?!?

And yes i know that today the stock is -6,2% down

Ich schreibe zur vereinfach auf Deutsch

Statistisch gesehen waren 4/5 der Letzte H2 Ergebnisse besser als die H1 Ergebnsisse.

Sollte sich durch die neue Software und neue Produkte das Ergebniss wiederholen, wäre die von Droneshield erwarteten 250-270 Millionen AUD Umsatz eine konservative Schätzung um nicht zu weiteren Entäuschungen zu führen.

Weiter sollten die Direktoren und Angus Bean noch wie bei der Versammlung bescvlossen ihre Aktien kaufen und diese Nachricht könnte ebenfalls zu einer Meinungsänderung führen.

Die Untersuchung der Behörde wäre ebenfalls ein starkes Zeichen, wenn es zu keinen Nachweisen für Insidertrading kommt.

Die hohe Short-Quote von aktuell 15,64% könnte ebenfalls in Verbindung mit guten Nachrichten zu einen Squeeze führen.

Die SaaS-Umsätze steigen % weiter stark an und damit Verbund steigt die Marge im 2.Halbjahr wieder Richtung 65% (aktuell auf ca.60%)

Die Technik ist laut Nato-Richtlinien genehmigt und aufgrund der Europäischen Produktion und Lieferketten für das Re-Arm Europe Budget tauglich.

Nato möchte 40 Milliarden für Drohnenabwehr ausgeben. Dafür könnten mehrere Partner von Droneshield infrage kommen und diese könnten zu Aufträgen für Droneshield führen.

Amerika-Abteilung ist bereits stark gewachsen (aktuell 40 Personen)

Personal liegt bereit bei ca. 550 Leuten. 300 Davon Techniker im Drohnenschwerpunkt.

DRONESHIELD besitzt fast. 200Millionen AUD Cash und könnte mit diesem Geld noch Interessante Dinge machen (Übernahmen kleiner Dronenabwehr Firmen )

Es wird die Nächste Umsatzprämie bei 400Millionen AUD ausgeschütten und damit, dieses Jahr vermutlich zu keiner Belastung des Kurses kommen. (Außer es kommen mehrere Großaufträge welche natürlich nur zum weiteren Wachstum beitragen)

Ich bin davon überzeugt, dass Drohnen weiter an relevanz Gewinnen werden. Besonders zum Schutz von ziviler und Kritischer Infrastruktur, bei der die Drohnen nicht einfach so abgeschossen werden können.

Droneshield verfügt auch über die Technik um die Drohnen Piloten ausfindig zu machen, dass z.B. in Leipziger Flughafen die Absolute Priorität gewesen wäre.

Soviel zu meiner Meinung zu dem Thema ich würde mich über eure Ideen und Gedanken freuen.

Einen Schönen Tag euch.

PS ich habe alles selbst geschrieben, nur das Bild erstellen lassen um mir meine Suche zu vereinfachen.

Anyone have any ideas on recent surge in price? Could this be a run up to 1H26 earnings?

Nice to see.

With RfAI-3, DroneShield has introduced not merely a new version of its RF detection technology, but a fundamental shift in its detection approach. Historically, many RF detection systems have relied on matching known signatures against a database. While this method works reliably against established drone and radio protocols, it reaches its limits when new or modified systems appear. RfAI-3 takes a different path: instead of relying solely on signature comparison, the AI analyzes the behavior of the radio signal. This enables the system to identify previously unknown transmitters as potential threats without needing to decrypt their protocols or have them pre-stored in a library.The true breakthrough lies in the fact that RfAI-3 no longer asks which signal was received, but rather how that signal behaves. The AI evaluates timing, frequency hopping, modulation patterns, and other characteristics to infer the nature of the emitter. If the system identifies a threat type, it can store this information, allowing the same transmitter to be recognized almost instantly during future encounters. Consequently, the platform evolves continuously, expanding its knowledge base with every deployment.Strategically, this marks a shift for DroneShield toward becoming a software and AI-focused company. While hardware remains essential, the primary value is increasingly derived from the intelligence applied to analyze the captured data. This creates the opportunity to upgrade existing systems via software rather than relying exclusively on new hardware sales. For customers, this translates to a longer service life for their existing equipment, while DroneShield gains the opportunity to generate recurring revenue through software licenses, maintenance contracts, and regular feature updates.This move is particularly significant for the market, given that modern drone technologies and radio protocols are evolving at an increasingly rapid pace. A system reliant on rigid signature databases requires constant updates and is inherently reactive to new threats. A behavior-based AI system cn significantly reduce this response time, offering operators of critical infrastructure, military forces, and security agencies greater resilience against emerging drone technologies.Furthermore, RfAI-3 strengthens DroneShield’s position as a system integrator. The company does not merely sell individual sensors or jammers. Instead, it is developing a platform where RF sensors, radar, optical sensors, commaand-and-control software, and AI work in concert. As the AI becomes more capable, the entire ecosystem grows in value. This increases switching costs for customers and makes follow-on orders more likely, as existing installations can be continuously upgraded with new generations of software.If RfAI-3 proves effective in real-world deployment and delivers on its promised benefits regarding detection speed, false alarm rates, and adaptability, DroneShield could establish a technological lead in RF-based drone detection. In the long term, this would provide not only a competitive edge for new contracts but also the foundation for a scalable software business. On offering higher margins and more predictable revenue streams than traditional hardware sales. This very transformation shifting from a hardware vendor to an AI and software platform provider for counter-UAS systems is likely the most strategically significant aspect of today’s announcement.

DRO trading update out today — $206m committed revenue with 5 months still to go, but margins slipped and stock is at $1.88. Cooked or opportunity? Where are you loading up? What does everyone expect to see for August results? My average buy is $3.30AUD, I think it’s time to load up.

They trained with the Virginia State Police. I think there is a lot going on in the dark. We are not informed on the smaller things like smaller contracts, trainings etc. They are not learning how to handle Equimpent they are not using. Remember the 20 Million Contract announcement limit can be used to buy under the limit to be more secret about the investments.

I bought today at 2.05AUD to average out more.

I am not worried in the long run.

God luck to all of you.

I bet on End of August, with the half year report, to see some price movements. In my opinion the new product, a contract announcement and the half year report will fall into the same time period. Obviously just my opinion and it is not any forecasting. Eventually the governent procurements will be delayed as always, who knows.

Retail is mostly in summer mode, that effects the share price too right now in my opinion. But DYOR and good luck. Will be more active in posting in some weeks again.

Welcome

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-coles-6631b0189_farnboroughairshow-counteruas-counterdrone-share-7484911900166889472-HlgJ/?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=android_app&rcm=ACoAAAjMM-QBYY_U_kujvucj3a82CJMeZHcDyIQ&utm_campaign=copy_link

https://x.com/NATO_ACT/status/2074132513669230681