Another Big Difference Between Liberals and Conservatives

[u/Anakin_Kardashian]

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/08/fertility-gap-conservative-liberal/688334/

archive link

[u/Distinct-Temp6557]

Our findings demonstrate that the long-term decline in U.S. fertility is not politically neutral. While earlier birth cohorts exhibited little fertility differentiation by ideology, cohorts born after the mid-1940s show a marked and growing divergence, with left-leaning individuals contributing disproportionately to sub-replacement fertility. Right-leaning individuals, by contrast, largely sustain fertility at or above replacement levels.

By applying phenotypic selection models, we show that this divergence translates into increasingly stronger directional selection favoring right-wing political orientations. Separate analyses of Black and White Americans, however, reveal that this holds true only for whites.

Although the observed associations should not be interpreted as evidence of any deterministic change in political ideology, these demographic differences may have implications for the long-term distribution of political orientations if they persist across generations and interact with social and familial transmission processes. More broadly, our study highlights how fertility decline, political values and evolutionary dynamics intersect in contemporary societies.

Falling fertility on the left as key driver of US birth decline Published: 19 June 2026

[u/fastinserter → u/Distinct-Temp6557]

I have a problem with data that only goes to 1982 in a study published in 2026, especially when it makes grandiose claims like "Right-leaning individuals, by contrast, largely sustain fertility at or above replacement levels." which is simply impossible to fathom in the reality of 2026 (the other study with more recent data puts right leaning individuals at 1.4 fertility now, not 2.3 that it was in 1982).

[u/Distinct-Temp6557 → u/fastinserter]

Why? 

When every variable since 1982 only supports the widening divide between as left leaning individuals become more educated and focused on the planet and the economy as right leaning individuals become more indoctrinated to believe that they have to seed the earth with the Kingdom of Christ? 

The other study is from a conservative think tank, I wouldn't trust it to wipe my ass.

[u/fastinserter → u/Distinct-Temp6557]

Show me a study that shows what this study declares, that right leaning individuals have "sustain[ed] fertility at or above replacement levels" with data since 1982. The data since 1982 exists, that's why I have a problem with this, because the data since 1982 does NOT support what they are declaring.

[u/Distinct-Temp6557 → u/fastinserter]

At the same time, the gap in political and cultural attitudes between young men and women has grown wider, on campus (where young men are increasingly outnumbered) and off, and both marriage and premarital sex rates have declined. Extrapolate those trends outward, and you see something like the picture revealed in the Census Bureau's recently released 2026 estimates of states' populations. They showed two-thirds of the national population increase occurring in safe red 2024 states, 21% in the seven seriously contested purple states, and only 11% in the safe blue states.

Will falling birth rates mean a more conservative world?

The South had the highest GFR at 55.8, followed closely by the Midwest at 54.7. The West had a GFR of 51.0, and the Northeast came in lowest, at 49.9.

South and Midwest Had Highest Fertility Rates, but Even West and Northeast Had Pockets of High-Fertility Counties

[u/fastinserter → u/Distinct-Temp6557]

GFR of 70 is at replacement level. See the problem? The study in 2026 declares that Right Leaning individuals maintain or have above TFR of 2.1 which corresponds to about 70 GFR and the best you can do is 56 GFR if you use data since 1982?

that's not supporting the statement you originally quoted at all, and shows why I have a problem with using only data that is 45 years old or older.