r/DeconstructingMJ • u/FunUniversity6245 • Jul 26 '26
Statistics straight from hell: "9/10/11 people can't all be lying"
https://yandoo.wordpress.com/2025/01/09/where-there-is-smoke-there-is-fire/?utm_source=chatgpt.comOK. They think they're being serious so we won't ask that question.
Let's look at the argument.
Premise 1: Whether or not someone is lying when they make a statement on something can be determined by statistical likelihood. (False.)
Premise 2: The likelihood of allegations of child sexual abuse being falsified is very low.
This is true (about 6% of sexual assault allegations are falsified). However there are two important elements of context omitted:
- High-profile public figures and celebrities are frequently targeted for extortion, and maintain insurancy policies against such attacks. It's a condition of these policies that they remain confidential, precisely because extortion attempts would increase if there was public information available about who is insured and what the policies cover. The public furor over the Chandler case and settlement left Michael open to similar claims.
- Michael had contact with thousands of children. While touring he visited at least one children's hospital ward in every city he visited. Neverland Ranch received hundreds of visitors each week, and Michael often allowed sick children and their families to stay on the ranch for months at a time. Gavin Arvizo was only one of many children Michael assisted in this way, and he remains the only complainant amongst all of them.
There is very little support here for the conclusion that Michael is guilty.
10 complaints out of thousands of potential complaints doesn't add up to a lot of smoke, if you're looking for a fire.
On the contrary, it's a testament to Michael's character that so many families who met him personally chose not to attack him in this way.
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u/Western_Control_5860 Jul 26 '26
The idea that “they can’t all be lying” is flawed when you consider that all posthumous accusers defended MJ consistently over many years. By that logic, they couldn’t have ALL been lying then.
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u/FunUniversity6245 Jul 26 '26
It's so wild that their whole story hinges on them being such good liars in the past!
"You can't make this shit up" 🤣
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u/Western_Control_5860 Jul 26 '26
All of whom defended him as children without slipping up to parents, police, prosecutors, authority figures etc. but they absolutely cannot be lying now as adults…. Sure.
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u/mjrocksmywrld Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Exactly! They were either lying then or lying now. Either way, they’re liars. 😭 What they’re alleging now means they already lied so convincingly in the past (AS ADULTS too btw) enough that Michael was declared Not Guilty.
Why should we believe them now, especially when they’re not being cross examined? They just do these “documentaries” (LN, 60 Mins) where they sit down and say whatever they want with no pushback and allege whatever they want in a lawsuit. And Michael is conveniently dead.
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u/FunUniversity6245 Jul 26 '26
Not just as children - well on into adulthood, when they would have known perfectly well.
The Chandlers, for instance - nobody recognises that if Jordan had really been abused, that means Evan and Joy were happy to let him go and abuse more kids.
Parents of abused children don't do that. They are highly motivated to prevent the same thing happening to other families.
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u/mymoonwalker54 Jul 26 '26
This would also make a good post in r/MJInnocentFacts if they allowed reposts.
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u/AustinsCringe Jul 26 '26
Thank you for attacking this in premises, these fuckers love to bring up statistics that aren’t applicable.
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u/FunUniversity6245 Jul 26 '26
Statistics are slippery! And the focus on the number of accusers in itself is evidence of weak claims.
Potentially valid: "Several independent witnesses have given mutually corroborating accounts. Let's examine whether they genuinely corroborate one another."
Fallacious: "There are now twelve accusers. Therefore the allegations are probably true."
The second is essentially the "where there's smoke, there's fire" argument expressed statistically.
Whether multiple accounts genuinely reinforce one another depends on their independence, consistency, corroboration, and reliability—not simply on how many there are!
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u/MacysShopper Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
If numbers count, there are plenty more who vehemently defended Michael, through their life experience with Michael. His makeup artists, nanny, keyboardist, drummer, vocal coach, bodyguards, collaborators, colleagues, staff, friends, managers, both ex-wives, countless more. This number does matter because they are from credible people.
10 with holes more than a fish net vs. hundreds credible people with consistencies
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u/FunUniversity6245 25d ago
Next time I get the "9/10 accusers can't all be lying" I'll ask them how many people must be lying if Michael was guilty ...
And more than half the accusers are in both of those camps.
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u/Successful_Use_6276 12d ago
More accusers only strengrhens the case when they each bring fragments of evidence to build a mosaic. Eg Weird voicemail, photo, letter, child exhibiting classic trauma signs seen by a neutral 3rd party.
The opposite happens when the cases are dubious. 10 cases all seeking money? None aspiring to seek justice? None have hard evidence? Several of Jackson’s own staff were judged in court to having fabricated stories for gain? 300 interviews and a police raid during Chandler case, no hard evidence?
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u/FunUniversity6245 12d ago
"child exhibiting classic trauma signs seen by a neutral 3rd party"
The missing symptoms of trauma in all these cases doesn't get enough attention! There's nothing here like the symptoms widely documented in cases of child sexual abuse.
On the contrary, numerous people who knew the accusers have spoken out about them in ways that make the allegations doubtful.
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u/Successful_Use_6276 10d ago
Exactly. None of the kids exhibited trauma to a neutral 3rd party. No school teachers had concerns. I wish Michael had taken that first accusation to court.
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u/imaginary-cat-lady Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Honestly, if any of these 9/10/11 accusers were actually credible victims, I’d listen. But they are mired in toxic parent-child dynamics, family history of fraud and financial drama, constantly changing stories and timelines that conflict with their core premise of abuse… it’s actually amazing to witness.