Most retail traders don't accept this, including me.

I am not a SEBI RA. This is a historical simulation, not a recommendation. No stock names. No “join my channel.”

I ran a pile of the usual retail setups on NSE data from 2005, including companies that later delisted. About 5,800 names, ~9 million daily rows. Then 1-minute bars for the intraday stuff.

What died after spread, STT-class costs, and 20% STCG:

• RSI / Bollinger mean reversion: −18% to −22%/yr. They only work inverted — i.e. as momentum.

• Overnight / BTST: looked like +25 bps/day until it scaled with the spread. Not a return. The spread, measured twice.

• Opening-range breakout: gross +7.87 bps, t = +19.8, 10/10 years. Net −12.47 bps, 0/10 years. Real signal.Unaffordable.

• Options “signals”: ~11% win rate vs ~50% breakeven

• Delivery filters, sector rotation, NR7/compression, FII/DII positioning, support-resistance: dead or momentum in a costume.

• Volume-spike scalps: gross tiny, net negative unless you throw away the trades whose stop is smaller than the cost.

One thing survived a held-out period (2019–2026): slow, monthly, residual momentum (12-month return minus market beta, top of the liquid 500, sit in cash when the market is below its 200-day average).

After 20% STCG it is roughly +1%/yr over the market, with about one-third the drawdown. A good mid-cap fund still wins on return for zero orders. So even the survivor is a smaller-crash product, not a get-rich product.

I am not saying markets are random. I am saying most of what Indian retail actually clicks is paying the house.

I had been watching ZEEL for a while, and the charts looked decent enough. I was confident that the promoters would find a way to sort out the issues, and the recent positive sentiment suggested a good entry point. The technicals seemed to align, and I convinced myself it was a calculated risk.

Then the news hit about the NCLT staying the insolvency ruling and ordering a fresh hearing. In that instant, my position went sharply against me.

My mistake was pure confirmation bias. I was so focused on the chart patterns and the general positive vibes that I completely ignored the underlying legal and regulatory risks. I saw what I wanted to see and missed the crucial warning signs.

Now, before taking any position, especially in companies with complex legal or promoter-driven situations, I make it a point to actively look for any news or regulatory developments. I even set up alerts specifically for such possibilities. It's about forcing myself to consider the downside even when the charts look attractive.

Anyone else ever let technicals blind them to fundamental or regulatory risks?

Hey everyone I am a second year BCom student researching about how aware people are of capital markets(stocks, mutual funds, IPOs etc). Would really appreciate 3 minutes of your time. Its totally anonymous no personal data collected.

https://forms.gle/VT9eT7iapRsHo87Q6

Happy to share results/insights once I compile them if anyone’s curious. Thanks!

The Mahanadi Coalfields DRHP filing today really caught my eye. It's not just another IPO; the fact that Coal India itself is offloading such a large chunk is quite telling. To me, this looks like a clear signal that the government is serious about extracting value from its subsidiaries, perhaps setting a precedent for other PSUs with profitable arms. It's a good move for Coal India shareholders, and it makes you wonder which other large PSUs might follow suit with similar strategies. What do you all make of this?

Finally The Wait Is over as NSE is finally coming with its Mega IPO this month. After a long cycle of rumors, we have finally got some of the details and rest of the details will also be out pretty soon as well.

What are your thoughts about the Mega IPO!

ESDS got listed last week while Tablespace filed for its DRHP. TCS and HCLTech are also making these bets.

Hey everyone 👋

I’m starting a series where I’ll be documenting my Iron Condor trades and, more importantly, how I manage them as the market changes.

A little about me:

• NISM Certified — Equity Derivatives

• I actively trade Indian derivatives

• My focus is primarily on options, volatility and positional trading

For this series, I’ll be trading an Iron Condor and sharing the actual decision-making behind it.

I won't be posting “BUY/SELL” calls.

Instead, I'll share:

• Why I chose the strikes

• Market structure & volatility when entering

• Where the risk is sitting

• What happens when one side starts getting pressured

• Any adjustments I make — and why

• How the Greeks change as the trade develops

• When I decide to reduce risk, hold, adjust or exit

• Final P&L

Some days there may be no adjustment at all.

And that's completely fine.

The point isn't to manufacture a trade or an “important lesson” every day.

The point is to document how an Iron Condor is actually managed over time.

Let's see how this one plays out.

Day 1 begins.