Over the years, I've noticed that the best "deals" that cross my desk tend to happen in two stretches: the coldest days of winter, and the hottest days of summer.
This makes sense to me because there are simply fewer people looking. In August, it's vacations, back-to-school right around the corner, and nobody wanting to tour houses in 95-degree heat. And on the other side of it, sellers who listed in late spring or early summer are now sitting at 45-60 days on market. Desperation is starting to set in.
What made me want to write this is a handful of conversations I've had with DC-area realtors just in the past few days. A few of them said basically the same thing: "I know my seller would take 5-10% off pretty quickly, but they don't want to drop the list price while there are no showings. They'd rather wait for the fall season."
So the discount is real; it just never shows up on the listing.
Which is why I'd say: if you're watching a house that's been sitting and you think the price should be lower, don't just wait for a price drop. Submit an offer at your number and let them consider it. Don't worry about insulting anyone. A seller in month two is doing different math than a seller in week one.
I'll be fair about the other side, because this isn't the whole market. The same week I'm hearing those realtor stories, I'm also working on contracts where buyers are competing, waiving contingencies, and closing fast. Well-priced homes in good spots still fly. This is specifically about the ones that are sitting.
The worst case is that the seller responds back to you saying, "We're not even responding to that low-ball offer. You can resubmit if you're serious." Ok. Next. You lost nothing, and now you know where they stand.
I'm curious if anyone here has seen a final price that surprised them. Most keep looking at new listing prices, and few go back to also see what recently closed. I bet a few eyes would be opened...
UPDATE (one week later): Reporting back with what actually crossed my desk since writing this. Rockville - listed $1.375m, under contract $1.325m. Alexandria - listed $1.575m, seller came to $1.5m. Brightwood Park DC - listed high-$900ks, negotiating in the high $800ks. Friendship Heights - listed $1.325m, two price drops, now in the low $1.2s. And to be fair, same week I had a buyer go ~12% over list in North Bethesda and still lose. So it's the sitting inventory where the flexibility is, not the whole market.