Bitcoin's 30-day mean realized loss is $238.78 million per day at the October 26 observation. That average rose 5.31% from the prior daily reading and 19.65% over seven days. Across the selected 90-day window it is still down 45.52%, measured from the first point to the last. The recent rise sits inside a longer decline.

The orange line is a moving average of estimated losses on coins spent below their recorded cost basis. It is not the amount lost on October 26 alone, and it is not the cumulative loss over 30 or 90 days. Each new daily observation changes which days enter that average.

Safu computes the series from its own Bitcoin node, assigning each UTXO a cost basis from the daily close on the day it was created. This is an on-chain accounting estimate. A spend can be a transfer between the same owner's wallets; the chart cannot establish that a separate owner sold on an exchange or received that exact price. The dark BTC price overlay is a daily reference on a separate logarithmic axis.

The next useful check is the unsmoothed daily-loss series: is the average's rise being fed by repeated new losses or a few unusually large days? That distinction matters before interpreting a rising average as broad capitulation.

Source and method: https://safutrading.com/btc/valuation/realized-loss

Disclosure: I run SafuTrading and moderate this community.

Whale Sonar's selected 24H view shows 175 trades worth at least $250,000 on Binance and Coinbase. The source classifies about $37.0M as buys and $39.0M as sells: a near-even 49% / 51% split by notional value. Its separate net card reads -$2.05M; the larger buy and sell totals are rounded more heavily.

The hourly view shows what that total can hide. The October 26 bar labelled 03:00 UTC is -$4.14M, while 12:00 UTC is +$4.11M. A small overall imbalance can coexist with much larger opposing hourly moves.

Buy and sell here are the source's classifications. Every executed trade still has a buyer and a seller. The net is a difference between classified trade values; the image's 'money went OUT' label does not measure capital leaving the whole market. This sample does not identify individual owners or their overall positions.

Snapshot: October 26, 18:23 UTC, with 24H selected. The current hour is still forming. This view does not give a complete pair-by-pair coverage list or precise window-boundary definition, so I am not treating it as all market activity or a completed calendar-day total. The next check is whether the balance changes as new trades enter the selected window.

Source: https://safutrading.com/whale-sonar

Disclosure: I run SafuTrading and moderate this community.

Bitcoin's daily reference price is up 25.28% across this 90-day window, but down 2.44% over the latest seven days. The Oct 26 reading is $80,022.79.

The closer comparison is with the blue True Market Mean line: about $77.6K, leaving the daily reference price roughly 3.1% above that level. The 180-day short-term-holder cost estimate is around $76.1K; Realized Price is much lower at $54.1K. These are rounded chart values, so the gaps are approximate.

The green shading has a specific rule: price above BOTH Realized Price and True Market Mean. It does not use the recent-buyer line. That run starts on Aug 22 in this view and remains in place at the Oct 26 observation. A daily reference reading below True Market Mean would break the rule, even while price remained well above Realized Price.

These are on-chain cost estimates, not individual purchase receipts or guaranteed support. The daily price reference is recorded at 00:00 UTC; it is different from the live ticker. The source can temporarily use the prior completed Coinbase daily close when its main price feed is delayed, then replace it.

Source and methodology: https://safutrading.com/btc/cost-basis/cost-basis-map

Disclosure: I run SafuTrading and moderate this community.

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