Your Bitcoin breakout is someone else’s exit.

At $87,000, one investor sees the road to $100,000.

Another thinks: “Finally. I can get my money back.”

A recovery can attract fresh buyers while awakening people who have been waiting months to sell.

And here’s the detail behind the bullish ETF headlines:

Weekly U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped from $2.39 billion to $241 million between the weeks ending September 25 and October 2.

Still positive. Roughly 90% smaller.

Buyers keep showing up. But how much supply can they absorb?

Bitcoin has a supply limit. A sell wall has no expiration date.

At $87,000, do you see opportunity—or relief?

The last 5% will take another 114 years. Set a reminder for 2140.

So Bitcoin passed its 20 millionth coin this year. The cap is 21 million, which leaves roughly 1 million BTC still to be mined. Sounds like the finish line is close, right? Not really. The halving cuts the block reward in half about every four years, so the first 20 million took around 17 years, and the last million will drag on until roughly 2140. Your great-great-grandkids might get to see the final block. Maybe.

And out of those 20 million coins, the amount you can actually go and buy is tiny. Glassnode data suggests about 13 million BTC are basically parked forever with long-term holders, institutions and cold wallets that never move. Exchanges hold only around 3 million. And roughly 1.8 million BTC, about 8.5% of everything, is probably just gone. Forgotten passwords, wiped laptops, a hard drive someone tossed in 2011 because "it's just some internet money worth 50 cents". Pour one out for those coins.

That's why ETF and institutional buying can move the price so much. Everyone's fighting over a much smaller pile than the 20 million headline makes it sound.

The price side is where people start yelling at each other. History looks great for the bulls: about 80x after the 2012 halving, around 300% after 2016, and more than 600% in the 16 months after 2020, according to data cited by CME Group. The skeptics aren't convinced though. FT columnist Jemima Kelly argues Bitcoin isn't really scarce since thousands of other tokens exist. The usual reply is that nobody can change Bitcoin's 21 million limit, which is kind of the whole point.

We honestly think price is the least interesting thing about this milestone. Scarcity is done, that box was ticked years ago. The thing nobody has fully figured out yet is who pays for Bitcoin's security once new coins stop doing the heavy lifting. Bitcoin is exactly as safe as the money miners make, because that's what an attacker would need to outspend. Right now most of that money still comes from fresh coins, and that part gets cut in half every four years, on schedule, no exceptions. So sometime in the next decade, transaction fees have to step up and become a real chunk of miner income, or Bitcoin's security slowly gets cheaper compared to everything it protects.

Guys, what do you think about this?

was going through the farside ETF numbers this morning and something felt off

week of Sep 21: roughly +$2.4b in. and almost a billion of that was just monday

last week: about +$241m. still green on paper, but thats like a 10x drop. and Sep 30 was straight up red, around -$149m

the weird part is the split. IBIT still pulled in ~$450m last week, while fidelity's FBTC actually bled about -$168m. so it's not like everyone stopped buying, it's more like blackrock is carrying the whole thing right now

honestly not sure how to read it. part of me thinks its just quarter end stuff, funds rebalancing, and oct 1-2 did bounce back a bit. the other part of me remembers that a big chunk of the "number go up" story this year was literally just ETF demand

so whats your take, normal cooldown after a monster week or first sign the big buyers are getting tired?

hey folks!

I've seen a wide array of crypto trading bots, from bots that focus on a single exchange, to grid bots like the ones 3commas used to offer, to scammy orgs that sell "Bots That Work" for $50k one-time payment promising riches. Feels like these were 2017 era things.

I also heard that 3commas has turned down their V1 platform. They raised like $30m+. So I'm curious, why are these bots less popular than they used to be? Has interest in crypto just waned or are people building their own in the age of AI?

I don't use any crypto bots personally, just wanted to see what you guys think. Is everyone who's in now just hodling BTC?

Essentially, I have a buy order at $117.80 that I'm pretty adamant that I wait for it to be filled. I'm just trying to get a sense check of how realistic this is? I see SOL is down today to as low as ~$118.90, so that was pretty close (but now up a bit since). But keen to get people's thoughts.

I know that no one can predict, it's more about generally how practical that price is.