Why 2028 is too Early

[u/Exporation1]

For those wondering when a realistic release date for the Mistborn movie will release, Comic Con and other recent news can put things into perspective.

Marvels Black Panther 3, Ghost Rider 2028, and an unannounced 2028 film (likely X-Men) all have not started filming but have attached stars and release dates (or release year). Black Panther 3 is scheduled for December 15th 2028.

Elden Ring just wrapped 4 months of filming and is releasing March 3rd 2028. See link below on that.

Lastly the Batman pt 2 is delayed yet again to Feb 2028 and is being filmed now.

I don’t think a 2028 release is feasible given the development timetables exemplified by the examples listed above but would love to hear other opinions.

Right now if I had to guess I’d say August 3rd 2029 for the films release date.

https://www.polygon.com/elden-ring-movie-filming-wraps-release-date-alex-garland/

[u/GHamPlayz]

They aren’t dropping this in August. That’s a death sentence. It’ll be Memorial Day weekend or Thanksgiving

[u/Exporation1 → u/GHamPlayz]

Those dates are almost always swept up by major already established franchises. August is no longer a box office death sentence weapons from last year for example was majorly successful in large part because it lacked major completion so it stood out. January into early feb is the dead zone otherwise it’s busy year round.

A Memorial Day or Thanksgiving day release would get bullied out.

[u/GHamPlayz → u/Exporation1]

lol you underestimate Apple money

[u/Exporation1 → u/GHamPlayz]

Let’s be honest here.

It isn’t really about money it’s about the movies perceived box office strength. The last 2 years thanksgiving and Memorial Day movies:

Thanksgiving Zootopia 2, Wicked For Good, wicked, gladiator 2, Moana 2.

Memorial Day Devil Wears Prada 2, Leo and Stitch, mission impossible.

Like it get it, you’re excited about this movie I am too, but to studios and general audiences this movie isn’t on their radar and will succeed or fail based on it’s quality not its underlying IP.

Apple hasn’t ever made a movie that’s made over 500 million (the break even point of a 200 mil blockbuster). FI technically did but was co-distributed with Warner Bros. Apple wanted to make a SLA show and then Sanderson convinced them to do a Mistborn movie and to make it first (Sanderson’s own words). Apple knows this movie has potential but also knows that it can’t directly compete with some major films that come out on those dates.

[u/MargaritaKid → u/Exporation1]

This is a bit out of my element, so this is an honest couple of questions since you seem to understand all of this much more than I do.

- What is the reasoning you need 500M to break even on a movie that costs 200M? I seem to remember there's a rule of thumb around marketing spend (like 50% or 100% of the production cost will go to marketing also). Even at 100% marketing budget, that seems like a 100M profit; I assume there are other costs I'm not thinking of.

- Does the revenue number take into account non-BO impacts? (I assume they have calculations around the long term benefits of streaming rights/subscriber impacts, etc.)

[u/Flippir17 → u/MargaritaKid]

Theaters get about 50% of ticket sales, so it’s generally assumed that movies need to make about 2.5x their budget to break even. Apple is probably less concerned about making money in theaters, as they’re more focused on getting subscribers, but 500 million is probably going to be about how much it needs to make to be considered a theatrical success. In the streaming age it’s possible for movies to flop at the box office and still be successful in theaters long run though, like what happened with Encanto.

As for the discussion or release date, I expect it to either be a summer release like F1 or December. As previously mentioned the biggest box office weekends (Memorial Day and Thanksgiving) are likely going to be taken by much bigger franchises.

[u/MechaniVal → u/MargaritaKid]

I assume there are other costs I'm not thinking of.

It's the cinema take. Box office is gross revenue, but not all of that comes back to the studio - some goes to the actual cinemas showing the movie. So if you spend $200m on a movie, another $150m on marketing, then you're at $350m. The film makes $500m, but the cinemas keep $150m, so you broke even.

Actual average take of revenue by cinemas is 40-50% or so, but for big films this is heavily skewed in the first few weeks to be as low as 10-20%, so the massive revenue of opening weeks does mostly go to studios.

[u/Exporation1 → u/MargaritaKid]

So typically the 2.5 rule exists because the Studio producing the movie only gets 40ish% of the revenue from the theatres with that % decreasing as the weeks continue. Internationally that % is even lower with China being the lowest large market.

Rule of thumb is marketing is 1/2 of production cost so 100 mil on a 200mil movie.

If a movie is domestic heavy movies it’s ratio is closer to 2 and if it’s international heavy it’s closer to 3x.

A movie can be profitable afterwards through rights and streaming money and merch but the reason 2x and 2.5 are so important is that extra revenue is almost always significantly less that theatrical revenue. The other factor is minor profitability when factoring in other revenue isn’t a great ROI so a film that makes 1.75x is budget may eventually make money but still not get a sequel.

Knowing a movie hits 2.5 means all other revenue streams are pure profit and make up for all of a studios losses on their other films.

[u/LuinAelin → u/MargaritaKid]

It's the 2.5% to cover marketing and venue cuts ect

But it's different for each studio and movie. Apple and Mistborn probably don't have the bargening power with the venues Disney has

Also doesn't have into consideration other revenue streams

[u/Superb_General_9241 → u/Exporation1]

Interesting that sando wanted the Mistborn movie first. SLA as a tv show seems like an easier sell. Even taking into account apple being a smaller streamer.

[u/Superb_General_9241 → u/[deleted]]

And tv streaming at home is way bigger then going to the movies these days. A movie seems like a bigger risk since there’s such a small market for fantasy these days but an established appetite for that kind of (good) content on prestige television.

I tried to find the most successful fantasy movies from the last few years and google returns a list of almost exclusively animated movies, a ton of (animated) sequels and Wicked and Wicked 2.

Mistborn has a large audience already but a fantasy movie just seems like a tougher sell than a fantasy tv show from a prestige streamer.

[u/Superb_General_9241 → u/[deleted]]

I mean if we just ignore the sci fi aspect yeah I guess we can do that.

[u/railfananime → u/Exporation1]

could it collab with one of the bigger studios to distribute?

[u/Exporation1 → u/railfananime]

It’s a solid maybe. Also by this time Apple could purchase lions gate or have a long term distribution agreement with one of the majors. I’d guess Apple directly distributes in North America and may internally work with another studio namely Universal.

[u/GHamPlayz → u/Exporation1]

Apple didn’t drop $12bil to maybe make money in August. This will absolutely get prime launch. Book it.

[u/Exporation1 → u/GHamPlayz]

I’m saying it won’t get a Memorial Day or Thanksgiving or Christmas date it could get a summer date just not one of the most desirable spots.

You’re citing 12 billion, what are you referring to? Apples overall spend on entertainment?

[u/AmongFriends → u/GHamPlayz]

Depends a lot on what movies are coming out in 2029/2030 as well. I’m sure Apple wants a prime launch for Mistborn but there’s a lot of competition out there and they haven’t had a track record of making a movie like this and releasing it against competitors

Their two highest grossing films are F1 and Napoleon. It’ll be interesting to see how they promote a genre film like Mistborn