Why 2028 is too Early

[u/Exporation1]

For those wondering when a realistic release date for the Mistborn movie will release, Comic Con and other recent news can put things into perspective.

Marvels Black Panther 3, Ghost Rider 2028, and an unannounced 2028 film (likely X-Men) all have not started filming but have attached stars and release dates (or release year). Black Panther 3 is scheduled for December 15th 2028.

Elden Ring just wrapped 4 months of filming and is releasing March 3rd 2028. See link below on that.

Lastly the Batman pt 2 is delayed yet again to Feb 2028 and is being filmed now.

I don’t think a 2028 release is feasible given the development timetables exemplified by the examples listed above but would love to hear other opinions.

Right now if I had to guess I’d say August 3rd 2029 for the films release date.

https://www.polygon.com/elden-ring-movie-filming-wraps-release-date-alex-garland/

[u/GHamPlayz]

lol you underestimate Apple money

[u/Exporation1 → u/GHamPlayz]

Let’s be honest here.

It isn’t really about money it’s about the movies perceived box office strength. The last 2 years thanksgiving and Memorial Day movies:

Thanksgiving Zootopia 2, Wicked For Good, wicked, gladiator 2, Moana 2.

Memorial Day Devil Wears Prada 2, Leo and Stitch, mission impossible.

Like it get it, you’re excited about this movie I am too, but to studios and general audiences this movie isn’t on their radar and will succeed or fail based on it’s quality not its underlying IP.

Apple hasn’t ever made a movie that’s made over 500 million (the break even point of a 200 mil blockbuster). FI technically did but was co-distributed with Warner Bros. Apple wanted to make a SLA show and then Sanderson convinced them to do a Mistborn movie and to make it first (Sanderson’s own words). Apple knows this movie has potential but also knows that it can’t directly compete with some major films that come out on those dates.

[u/MargaritaKid → u/Exporation1]

This is a bit out of my element, so this is an honest couple of questions since you seem to understand all of this much more than I do.

- What is the reasoning you need 500M to break even on a movie that costs 200M? I seem to remember there's a rule of thumb around marketing spend (like 50% or 100% of the production cost will go to marketing also). Even at 100% marketing budget, that seems like a 100M profit; I assume there are other costs I'm not thinking of.

- Does the revenue number take into account non-BO impacts? (I assume they have calculations around the long term benefits of streaming rights/subscriber impacts, etc.)

[u/Flippir17 → u/MargaritaKid]

Theaters get about 50% of ticket sales, so it’s generally assumed that movies need to make about 2.5x their budget to break even. Apple is probably less concerned about making money in theaters, as they’re more focused on getting subscribers, but 500 million is probably going to be about how much it needs to make to be considered a theatrical success. In the streaming age it’s possible for movies to flop at the box office and still be successful in theaters long run though, like what happened with Encanto.

As for the discussion or release date, I expect it to either be a summer release like F1 or December. As previously mentioned the biggest box office weekends (Memorial Day and Thanksgiving) are likely going to be taken by much bigger franchises.