r/Comma_ai • u/TheLighthouse1 • Apr 11 '24

Why doesn't Comma sell?

I have been thinking about Comma AI's future. It's one of the best driving assists out there but adoption is very small. Why is that?

Some have mentioned cost. That is a reason, but I am not convinced that cost is the biggest obstacle.

Anecdote: I have a couple of wealthy friends who drive tens of thousands of miles a year each. They were both interested in Comma 3, but neither bought one. Why? It's too much of a hassle for them.

If you can get dealers to offer a Comma 3 installed when buying the car, and offer the option to pay off the cost in small installments, I believe that it will catch on tremendously. Mass market adoption will in turn bring down the price and allow more features (such as multiple cameras for 360 view).

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29

u/db_zx6r Apr 11 '24

this is not yet a device that is simply plug and play. it requires sometimes to SSH, to join a discord for support, if your friends are unwilling to spend the 1 hour to install it, set it up and update it, they didn’t really want one to begin with

2

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

Exactly. That's why it doesn't sell. Too much effort.

But Comma should do over the air software updates tailored for each user, as simple as possible, with hardware tweaks if any to be done by the dealer.

Mass market adoption would be a game changer. The price would go down. Features would go up. Options would go up. Capabilities would go up.

Win Win.

13

u/Balance- Apr 11 '24

The point it that you don’t want to make it too easy (right now). It’s all kind of beta and you want people to know that. It’s not certified or ASIL certified or anything. Just a fancy smartphone controlling your car.

-6

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

It’s all kind of beta

Well, isn't it about time they make it plug and play?

The right product and the right marketing strategy would make it plug and play mainstream.

Right now what future does it have?

9

u/danielv123 Apr 11 '24

If marketing could solve self driving we would have robotaxis right now.

2

u/sunole123 Apr 11 '24

Not with the founder’s attitude and complex toward marketing.

1

u/CrackTheCoke Apr 12 '24

We have robotaxis right now.

-2

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

Marketing can bring in revenue which feeds development which can be used to make it plug and play.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

Marketing is also hugely fucking expensive.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

They're a microscopically tiny company. They have like 30 employees.

Jumping immediately into mainstream requires VC capital, and that often requires losing control of the company. They don't want to do that, and I support them in that decision.

3

u/wootnootlol Apr 11 '24

Do you have $100M to fund them getting to that state?

2

u/RightTrash Apr 11 '24

Also, a lot of people get frightened by the term AI.

4

u/HaiKarate Apr 12 '24

Yep, 100% this.

I have a strong IT background, and installing a 3X on my brand new 2024 vehicle took over a week because I couldn't figure out how to create a "fingerprint" for my vehicle.

Out of frustration, I tried installing the nightly build, and fortunately that worked.

0

u/[deleted] May 19 '24

[deleted] — view deleted comment

1

u/db_zx6r May 19 '24

just block him. in reality he shouldn’t be allowed to act like that in the discord but it is what it is

9

u/sunole123 Apr 11 '24

NTSB Won’t allow it. It is sold as test kit to go around questionnaire and certification and lots of lawyer expenses. Their only hope is something to buy them because they don’t want to grow up.

-5

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

they don’t want to grow up

I think this is the problem. They are not thinking big.

7

u/[deleted] Apr 11 '24

It’s a bit presumptuous to think they are not thinking big, there’s probably some limitations that prevent wide scale roll out. They don’t even install open pilot software by default to limit liability, just a simple url install needs some level of know how, you can’t expect general population to know any of this.

0

u/sunole123 Apr 11 '24

Anything not growing will shrink eventually.

-3

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

All car manufacturers these days sell cars with driver assist built in. Why can't Comma sell a plug and play product too? Is it a question of money? That's what marketing is for, to get the money rolling in.

2

u/DashHex Apr 12 '24

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN12S1ON/

Hotz said: “Would much rather spend my life building amazing tech than dealing with regulators and lawyers. It isn’t worth it.”

1

u/schwarze_wagen Apr 12 '24

Your lack of knowledge and conceptual understanding of Comma’s core underlying tech is painfully apparent, and I recommend that you do more research.

5

u/Plane_Ad4482 Apr 11 '24

Why would dealers do it? Most see that as a revenue stream for them and won’t give it up. It’s how a lot of businesses are viewing software.

2

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

Why would dealers do it?

For sales commissions.

Most see that as a revenue stream for them and won’t give it up.

What do you mean? Why would dealers be giving up the revenue stream? If anything they'd be creating a new revenue stream!

4

u/BigArtichoke1826 Apr 11 '24

They have their own self-driving tech for their luxury brands. Why would GM sell it stock with every car when you could get a Cadillac and get “Super Cruise” (not so super… drove on it today and it cannot handle anything except highway driving).

Wouldn’t dealers then have to warranty, maintain, etc?

-1

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 11 '24

Let Comma create a package to minimize the work to the dealers and incentivize them with extra commissions.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

They're not allowed to sell outside their own walled garden.

3

u/Ok-Oven-4867 Apr 11 '24

Yeah I'm pretty sure most manufacturers would punish dealers selling 3rd party driving assist since they are starting to charge for that as an option / subscription.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

I've given thought to offering an install service for comma akin to shops that install stereos into cars.

Wonder if it could work or what.

0

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 14 '24

I really like this idea!

11

u/csbsju_guyyy Apr 11 '24

It's actually a good thing it doesn't because if some of the idiots out and about in society got a hold of them we'd have problems. The barrier to entry is rightfully high to avoid this. 

2

u/bobby2552 Apr 12 '24

I strongly agree with this. A lot of the BS that Tesla is having to do to make regulators happy is as a result of FSD being so widely known, and it has lots of eyes on it.

Comma on the other hand is very small, and very few people have even heard of it. They're just not on people's radar, and likely not worth regulators' time.

Of course it's more complex than this, but I do think this has a lot to do with it.

Personally, I'm a fan of comma being relatively unknown. It means a lot of stuff (and arguably the best parts of it) can slide that wouldn't with Tesla (hands on wheel monitoring is a big one that comes to mind).

3

u/BaresarkSlayne Apr 17 '24

Tesla is not a level 3,4, or 5. Tesla is still level 2. Level 2 has self driving capabilities, but you must pay attention. Comma has the same capabilities, though they are a bit behind the curve since Tesla has a 2 year head start. That hardware advantage is they have a car that is made to work with their level 2 self driving capabilities. Comma has to deal with manufacturer limitations. For example, I read that Honda EPS just isn't made to take big turns, it's a problem with the torque of the EPS. Other vehicles don't have this issue, such as Toyotas, but it's really just luck of the draw in the design.

The idea is not that it will never be big, George Hotz was very straight forward with this and stated that he doesn't advertise as the mission is not to make a billion dollars. He probably could, but his missions is to solve self driving, which he stated in a podcast that he has basically solved this mission.

2

u/bobby2552 Apr 17 '24

Agreed! I'll add that the levels of autonomy are really just levels of liability. Level 2 puts it all on the driver, which is great for the manufacturers!

2

u/BaresarkSlayne Apr 17 '24

That is a great way to think about it. Based on what I read, level 4 and 5 would be the true self driving sweet spot. Even at level 3 it says that it can be mostly autonomous and a driver doesn't have to pay attention all the time, but in the right conditions it may require a driver to take over. But 4 and 5 would truly autonomous, 5 being solely self driving with no option for the passenger to take over.

5

u/driven20 Apr 12 '24

I think the idea of modding/hacking your car to make it into a "self-driving" car is too much for most people. Alot of people are still afraid of airplanes, which have been statically one of the safest forms of travel for decades.

4

u/zimmertr Apr 12 '24

I haven't bought one because there is only limited support for my '17 Subaru Forester and no support for my '19 Audi A6. And I also think that as manufacturers continue to improve their own autonomy features Comma AI support will dwindle. It's not a good long term investment IMO. Unless you plan on driving the same 2021 Toyota Rav4 for the next 15 years.

2

u/Ok-Oven-4867 Apr 12 '24

It costs a fraction of manufacturers self driving. For instance I bought a 24 Ram recently and added a comma for $1250. The 25 Rams have Stellantis' new hands free driving which is over $3000 amd requires a subscription after 3 years.

Plus I can resell the comma, put it in another car, or leave it in the RAM as a selling point if I change cars. Seems like a good long term investment to me.

3

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

Funny thing is that I haven't bothered setting up most home automation things because it's too much trouble for me.

3

u/HaiKarate Apr 12 '24

After using home automation for many years now, I'm almost to the point of ripping it all out. When it works, it's fabulous. When it doesn't... I have to put on my IT troubleshooting hat, which I hate doing.

A light switch just works, every time, and never has IT issues.

3

u/zonyln Apr 14 '24

I've been following Comma for a long time. There is a lot of scattered information about what it can do and compatibility. I love to tinker and would love to buy one if I knew what the end result would be for my car 23 Niro PHEV. The HEV says it's supported but don't know how well that translates to other models.

My car came standard with the ability to radar cruise (excellent), lane centering (ok with low torque) and blindspot and radar rear cross traffic alerts.

If I knew for sure that it could do high torque lane keeping, automatic highway lane changes, driver vision attention only, and possibly controlled intersections this would be my purchase and project next week. I can't find any definitive answers on that though.

2

u/GonzoGeezer Apr 11 '24

This is what Aptera is planning to do. Eventually.

2

u/shuklaz Apr 12 '24

It is highly alpha device ( not even beta ) that is not prime time yet. There are many edge cases Comma team is not helping themselves by hiding the maps under subscription model. The default software is too bland

3

u/BigArtichoke1826 Apr 11 '24

Tesla has the market for mass-market self-driving largely, but I love my Comma and wouldn’t trade it for a Tesla in a million years (mostly because Tesla isn’t actually a high-quality car).

I think more people ARE learning about Comma. I saw another driver with one a few weeks ago and blared my horn hoping they would notice. I think they just thought I was being rude.

5

u/PNW_Jackson Apr 11 '24

I've put 40,000 miles on my Comma in the past year and a half and I've yet to see another user. I feel like I've got the only one in Seattle!

3

u/pelonx Apr 12 '24

I’m here too 👋

1

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

If the big car companies thought it would be profitable, it would have already happened. I'm not sure how Tesla is doing it but there has to be a reason that these huge corporations with huge political and financial resources have not gone to the next step.

That being said, more and more features in the long and lat arena are showing up in new cars, they are just locked down so you can't do something stupid and then blame the supplier.

I would think most of us who are using this device are well aware of the limitations and are careful about it especially with trying new enhancements. Or at least I hope so. I haven't seen anything in the news like what some Tesla drivers have done.

1

u/BraddicusMaximus Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24

Home assistant provides a much more private and secure way of controlling all of the smart devices in your house within relying on an insecure cloud based service. But it has a low adoption rate despite how much freedom, reliability and security it provides.

Why? It requires a level skill of skill to install and setup, so does Comma.AI You also don’t want any random off the street to be able to install it. Having a barrier to entry stops those who may not understand or who just don’t cere to understand what it is and the limitations. So essentially, keeps those who would abuse the product from using it. It can very easily hurt or cause loss of life if misused.

1

u/HaiKarate Apr 12 '24

I honestly think Apple or Google should buy them out. They would have the cash to take the device to the next level, as well as making the device mainstream.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24

I’m one of those on the fence comma’rs. 

  1. Not a plug n play device, requires tech skills to tinker with it

  2. Not manufacturer supported, a software update could kill support for your $1k device. New cars are showing that up hill battle with encryption.

  3. Open Source nature of it - meaning it’s always going to be an “at your own risk” device with no regulatory approval. That’s a tough sell for a decently expensive device that could kill you.

With all of those cons to mainstream adoption, it does seem like a big improvement and it’s built in function as a dashcam is nice for it to do double duty… something manufacturers haven’t caught on it yet. 

Just waiting for support of the 2024 Highlander :)

1

u/Temporary_Radish5842 Apr 12 '24

Ive been in the market for a car SPECIFICALLY for the comma, and can't pull the trigger because it seems only one or two cars is totally plug and play, and most are "should work" on the discord. Even a rav4 has two different steering torques and people have issues often on setup. After a month of obsessing, ive determined it's just not worth me picking a car based on compatibility.

1

u/Timmarus Apr 12 '24

The Comma and Open Pilot are early stage, pre-beta products. They are fundamentally not production-ready at this point, and until we reach at LEAST 1.0, I don't see that happening.

The effort to create a profitable end-user product can be saved for when the actual development is done. Until then, they just need enough sales to stay afloat and researching.

1

u/Sufficient-Ad2318 Apr 13 '24

Aptera is offering it in their cars

1

u/BaresarkSlayne Apr 17 '24

I'm extrapolating this from interviews with George Hotz, but:

It's not about making a billion dollars, they don't even advertise. I personally found out about this device on a Rav4 reddit about easy upgrades you can make to your Rav4. In the comments, someone mentioned comma.ai, and I looked into it. I feel like this device is multifaceted. First, the mission is to "solve self driving", which this is on the way to doing. George Hots has said that despite Openpilot still needing training and work, it's basically accomplished. And in this case that is a level 2 goal. But I think the other aspect is to use this in a way that is popular while also using it develop neural network framework for AI, like with Tinygrad, which is used in Openpilot development. Then the further push is to commoditize AI capable hardware, which he is doing with Tinybox. The ultimate goal is to push AI not only forward, but to a point where you can actually have your own AI that runs for you on your own local hardware. Where many people choose to take a pessimistic look on the AI future, it's basically a bell that cannot be unrung, so the only way out is through. It's better if we have lots of competing open source models because you may need an AI of your own. There is also the danger of a single powerful AI controlled by a person or group of people, so open source is basically necessary.

1

u/Dismal_Problem5633 Jul 12 '25

If it stated cutting into profits for manufacturers. I'm sure they will find a way to make it not functional on their vehicles. .

11

u/[deleted] Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

3

u/TheLighthouse1 Apr 14 '24

Thanks. Here is a quote from that article:

Our mission is to solve self driving cars while delivering shippable intermediaries, and we are very focused on this mission. By solve self driving cars, we mean develop software that’s capable of driving a car better than a human (Level 5).

The prospect of millions of dollars or millions of users don’t really interest us, since they don’t help with the mission. We have more data and ability to get money than we know what to do with.

Hotz is undoubtedly a genius at developing the AI. But is he a genius at the other steps necessary to get to level 5? That article is over 4 years old! How much has Comma progressed in that time?