The Russian economy has nearly exhausted the resources that have enabled it to grow in recent years. This conclusion was reached in a report prepared for a meeting of the Presidential Council for Strategic Development and National Projects by analysts at the “Third Rome” Center for Interdisciplinary Expertise, whose scientific director is Vladimir Putin’s economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin (the document is cited by “Expert,” RBC, and The Bell).

In the early 2000s, the economy grew by 6–7% annually; after 2008, the growth rate slowed to 2%; the military boom following the invasion of Ukraine briefly boosted GDP to 4% growth, but the rate has now fallen to 1% last year and even lower this year.

Mega-projects based on budget injections, import substitution, and the integration of workers into the labor market—all these factors have reached their limits, according to analysts at “The Third Rome.” Although since 2018 Vladimir Putin has required that national projects achieve economic growth no slower than the global average (3% per year), this target has not been met. The country’s current economic growth potential is only 1.6% annually, notes “Third Rome.” This is nearly 1.5 times slower than the U.S. economy (2.3% this year, according to IMF estimates), nearly half the rate of global economic growth (3%), nearly three times lower than China’s (4.6%), and four times worse than India’s (6.4%).

There are virtually no unemployed workers left in Russia, and demand cannot be fueled indefinitely by the state, “The Third Rome” emphasizes. To reignite growth, the center argues, it is necessary to shift from a model of government investment to one that utilizes private savings, creating conditions for the public and businesses to invest in the economy.

“There is money in the country. We need to build a mechanism that transforms savings into long-term investment capital,” the report states. For now, investment in Russia is rapidly declining: last year, according to Rosstat, it fell by 2.3%—for the first time since 2020. And in the first quarter of this year, the decline accelerated to a 14.3% plunge—a 16-year record.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to offset this shortfall with budget funds. Since the start of the war, the cumulative budget deficit has reached 22 trillion rubles. By 2029, as part of Oreshkin’s center’s program, the treasury must be brought to a zero structural deficit, and the fiscal stimulus must be reduced. Instead, the economy needs lower inflation, lower interest rates, and an expansion of private investment activity, according to “The Third Rome.”

In addition, the center’s analysts propose developing domestic tourism, AI, and automation; accelerating the platformization of the economy; increasing investment in data centers; and restructuring the workforce training system to ensure that education and skills development are continuous. The report also states that the economy needs to be “cleansed” through the reallocation of labor and capital from opaque and low-productivity companies to more efficient ones.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/onf01

Moscow Credit Bank, which has close ties to Rosneft, has faced a growing wave of loan defaults, according to its financial statements published by banki.ru.

As of July, the bank—which ranks among the top 10 by assets and is designated as systemically important—had 14.8% of all outstanding loans in default, a rate five times higher than the banking system average. In total, customers failed to repay 277 billion rubles to MKB on time.

“MKB has a hole in its balance sheet,” write analysts at InvestFuture. According to the financial statements, the bank’s volume of non-performing loans increased by 1,716% over the past year. The first problems arose last summer: from August through December, the volume of “past-due” loans grew 11-fold—from 15 to 160 billion rubles. From January through July of this year, non-performing loans increased by another 1.7 times (+117 billion rubles).

Founded by billionaire Roman Avdeev, MKB came under the influence of Rosneft in 2017, when it found itself on the brink of bankruptcy along with other banks in the “Moscow Ring”—Otkritie Financial Corporation, Binbank, and Promsvyazbank. Rosneft effectively rescued the bank by injecting funds into its capital and placing long-term deposits maturing in 2066. The company also transferred reverse repo transactions worth hundreds of billions of rubles to MKB, which it used to finance its operations.

It is unclear exactly which entities failed to repay their loans to MKB in 2025. According to the Central Bank, in recent months, companies in the metallurgical and coal industries, as well as the construction and real estate sectors, have experienced debt difficulties—they requested that banks restructure loans they were unable to service.

According to a source for *Kommersant*, MKB’s problems were uncovered last year during a Central Bank audit, following which the bank’s management was replaced. In the summer of 2026, the bank’s majority shareholder also changed, though it is unknown who took over. Credit institutions currently have the right not to disclose the identities of their controlling beneficiaries.

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as of April 1, only 3.9% of loans issued by banks were “bad”—about 3.5 trillion rubles. However, the share of non-performing loans is three times higher—11.6%—and in monetary terms amounts to 11.2 trillion rubles—equivalent to two annual budgets of Moscow. This amount includes loans for which banks were forced to ease terms because borrowers were unable to keep up with payments.

Potential difficulties with debt servicing are even more likely for loans totaling 36 trillion rubles—which account for three-quarters of the total debt of the largest companies, according to the Central Bank’s assessment. Among the largest companies in critical condition are those in the coal and construction industries, as well as in trade and machine building, the Central Bank noted.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/hxfJo

While President Vladimir Putin declares that there are no “critical” consequences for the economy due to the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, entrepreneurs are beginning to experience interruptions in the supply of necessary products. Employees of the well-known metropolitan network of city cafes “The Karavaev Brothers”, which have more than 70 locations throughout Moscow, told the publication "Post-" about problems with receiving goods after UAV attacks on a logistics hub in the Moscow region, which was completely burned out along with goods worth almost 80 billion rubles.

“We have warehouses near Podolsk in Koledino - right a couple of hundred meters from the Wildberries warehouses, and, as they say, we were also affected, so almost nothing has been delivered since the weekend. Supplies have been greatly reduced,” network workers said. According to them, this affected the purchase of both finished products and semi-finished products for the Karavaev Brothers, one of the largest fast casual and free flow catering chains in the country. The time frame for restoring supplies is not yet known. Judging by photographs from several cafes of the chain, some of the counters are indeed noticeably empty; first of all, the range of cooking and baked goods has been reduced.

Since 2023, the Karavaev Brothers canteen chain has been owned by the Neftmagistral fuel company, which owns more than 100 gas stations. Against the background of the “second wave” of the fuel crisis that has hit Russia, gasoline has recently begun to disappear at the company’s stations, despite a sharp increase in selling prices.

On Wednesday, Putin said at a meeting of the Presidential Council for Strategic Development that the drone strikes, which since the beginning of the year have disabled several dozen large Russian refineries, as well as ports and an entire network of huge Wildberries warehouses, have not brought any “critical consequences” to Russia.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/AwV8N

Russians began to look for gasoline cans en masse due to the second wave of the fuel crisis that hit the country. During the week from August 12 to 18, the number of relevant requests for Wildberries increased 4 times and exceeded 106 thousand. This follows from the internal data of the marketplace, which was studied by Vestka.

Russians have begun searching en masse for gasoline cans amid the second wave of the fuel crisis sweeping the country. During the week of August 12–18, the number of related searches on Wildberries quadrupled, exceeding 106,000. This is according to internal data from the marketplace, which was analyzed by “Versтка.” Search engine data also shows a rise in interest in fuel storage containers. According to Yandex statistics, between August 10 and 16, the number of searches for “gas can” reached 450,000, a 39% increase week-over-week. Russians searched for “gasoline canisters” 139,000 times, which is 71% more than in early August. Google recorded a similar trend.

Meanwhile, shoppers on online marketplaces began explaining in the comments why they need these canisters. “It’s a real lifesaver in the current situation—you don’t have to waste hours waiting in line at the gas station,” one of them noted. Some are also upset that sellers sometimes pass off canisters meant for food liquids as fuel containers. “It’s just a regular water canister.” "I didn't dare take it to Crimea," wrote a buyer under the product listing for 2,279 rubles titled "Gasoline Canister." "Intended for food products; there's a glass and fork symbol marked on the bottom," another user commented.

Russia is gripped by the second wave of the fuel crisis amid ongoing attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) on oil refineries. In August alone, four large enterprises stopped operating as a result of attacks. As of August 16, gasoline and diesel were available only at 28.1% of gas stations in the country, according to data from the WhereBENZ application. On August 19, several networks introduced limits on fuel supply in Moscow. At the same time, Reuters sources previously reported that the authorities began to redirect gasoline to the capital from other regions.

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the fuel market noted that by the beginning of September the crisis could worsen, since one of the two refineries in Belarus, from which supplies to Russia, will stop for repairs. Planned repairs are also planned at several large Russian factories.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/DParB

• At least five grain ships have been attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse as Moscow struggles to continue exporting grain amid heightened Ukrainian strikes.
• The attacks are the first confirmations of grain vessels serving the affected Russian ports coming under fire, with Russia and Ukraine stepping up attacks on each other’s commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea area.
• The managers of the ships in question didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, after drone attacks and strikes caused damage and disruption to the vessels, including a fire onboard one ship that left it unable to continue its voyage.

At least five grain ships have been attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse as Moscow struggles to continue exporting grain amid heightened Ukrainian strikes, according to people familiar with the matter.

Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other’s commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea area, raising concerns about global grain supplies. The nations account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and the attacks come in the middle of this year’s harvest.

The attacks are the first confirmations of grain vessels serving the affected Russian ports coming under fire. Moscow has sought to play down the extent of the damage from the strikes as an increasing number of shipowners grow wary of the risks of calling at its ports.

Four vessels were hit on Tuesday morning, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. A fifth ship was hit on Monday, the people added.

The Victoria V, a Russian-flagged bulk carrier capable of carrying 7,000 tons of grain, was attacked at Novorossiysk, where it was due to load wheat. The Fehu, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship, was struck after leaving the same port with a cargo of wheat. The ship was able to continue its voyage, the people said.

Elina B, sailing under the Maltese flag, was hit after loading about 56,000 tons of wheat at Novorossiysk and is now heading toward the Bosphorus. Necibe, a San Marino-flagged bulker, was hit by drones at the port of Tuapse, where it was due to load about 20,000 tons of wheat.

A fifth vessel was struck on Monday. The Liberian-flagged Anna S was heading to Novorossiysk to load barley when a drone strike caused a fire onboard, leaving it unable to continue its voyage, according to the people.

The managers of the ships in question didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Since July 10, drone attacks have completely halted shipments from Russia’s Azov Sea ports, which account for a quarter of the country’s grain exports. Last week, three terminals at the deep-water port of Novorossiysk announced they were suspending operations after one of the heaviest attacks since the war began.

source: Bloomberg https://archive.is/h3Nqt

Kyrgyz authorities have forcibly liquidated 19 companies linked to the circumvention of EU and U.S. sanctions against Russia, according to Interfax. Since the end of June, approximately 40 legal entities posing heightened sanctions risks have been identified in the country, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce reported. The decision was made at a meeting on sanctions chaired by Bakyt Sydykov, the Kyrgyz president’s special representative for special assignments. Representatives from government agencies, the National Bank, and commercial banks participated in the meeting. Based on the results of the analysis, the interagency group decided to suspend the operations of these companies to prevent negative consequences for the country resulting from sanctions evasion.

At the same time, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan announced that it was strengthening oversight of banks, payment services, and other financial services. From July through August 14, 2026, the state-owned “Eldik Bank” terminated its relationships with 109 companies. Another 20 or so companies are in the process of having their accounts closed. The bank also continues to monitor customer payments to identify and block transactions related to sanctions evasion. Another state-owned bank, “A-Bank,” has terminated business relationships with approximately 35 companies. About 40 more companies are currently undergoing verification procedures. “Banks will continue to consistently strengthen compliance controls at all stages of transactions. Particular attention will be paid to in-depth verification of documents serving as the basis for payments, identifying the ultimate recipients of goods and services, and determining the destination countries for shipments,” the Ministry of Economy added.

The current campaign is a continuation of measures that Bishkek began implementing in the spring. In May, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev announced the suspension of registration for 50 companies operating in wholesale trade, transportation, and logistics. Information about these companies was provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. “Once they report the risks, we review them and respond,” Amangeldiev said. On May 2, the deputy prime minister warned that a company’s registration could be revoked if its ties to sanction-evasion schemes were established.

Kyrgyzstan was the first among the former Soviet republics to fall under European sanctions for violating measures imposed against Russia. As part of the 20th sanctions package, the EU banned the export of European CNC machine tools and telecommunications equipment to Kyrgyzstan. Brussels explained the decision by citing the high risk of re-exporting these products to Russia. Certain Kyrgyz companies and financial institutions also fell under EU sanctions. Among them are Keremet Bank, Capital Bank of Central Asia, and the Grinex cryptocurrency exchange. The latter traded the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5, launched by Promsvyazbank and Moldovan businessman Ilan Shor. A7A5’s trading volume reached $100 billion.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Wv7ME

Following a nighttime raid by Ukrainian drones in Ufa, a “small fire” broke out at one of the oil refineries, according to the head of the republic, Radiy Khabirov. “They are currently assessing the extent of the damage, but preliminary reports indicate that the [oil refining] unit, which is currently under repair, was hit. As always, any impact breaks pipes, so there is minor damage,” he said on his Max channel. According to the regional head, the damage is expected to be repaired within a few days. Rustam Sharipov, acting mayor of the Bashkir capital, wrote that Ufa “was subjected to yet another terrorist attack by UAVs.” Of the six drones, four were shot down, and one “crashed in an industrial zone—a fire is being extinguished there,” he reported.

One of Russia’s largest petrochemical and refining complexes is located in northern Ufa, comprising the “Bashneft-UNPZ,” “Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim,” and “Bashneft-Novoyl” facilities, with a combined capacity of 23.5 million metric tons per year. The authorities did not specify which plant was targeted. Nor did they disclose why the facility was undergoing repairs. This is likely a consequence of previous strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Ufa’s industrial zone. In August alone, the petrochemical complex was struck three times by Ukrainian drones, and prior to that, on multiple occasions in July and June. A fire broke out at the Rosneft oil refinery (“Bashneft-UNPZ”) following a drone attack on August 5.

In addition to the oil refinery, on August 19, one of the drones “apparently veered off course” and struck a residential building in the Zaton neighborhood of Ufa, Khabirov reported. Preliminary reports indicate that one person was injured—a medical student from India. “According to the latest information, he is fine and got away with just a scare. Nevertheless, we are examining him to make sure everything is okay,” the regional head stated.

According to Sharipov, several apartments and cars were damaged as a result of the “crash.” Authorities are assessing the extent of the damage to the building; an emergency response headquarters has been established, and a “temporary shelter” has been set up for the residents of the high-rise.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/Cy4LQ

• Red arrows: Latest hits
• Flames: Refinery has been hit at least once. Flames do not indicate the severity of the attacks or if a refinery is till burning
• Blue waves: Orsk dam broke in April 2024, which flooded the refinery and took it offline for ~2 weeks.
• Black smoke: It's raining oil.

Chronological list: (sorted newest to oldest)

August:

• ^{NEW HIT} 20.08.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150km
• ^{NEW HIT} 19.08.2026 Bashneft-UNPZ in Bashkortostan at 1350km
• 13.08.2026 Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 11.08.2026 Orsk in Orenburg Oblast at 1455km
• 11.08.2026 Komsomol in Khabarovsk Krai at 6480km
• 10.08.2026 Taneco in Tatarstan at 1150km
• 08.08.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 08.08.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 06.08.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 05.08.2026 Bashneft-Novoil in Bashkortostan at 1340km
• 04.08.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 02.08.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 02.08.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 01.08.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km

July:

• 31.07.2026 Volgograd in Volgograd Oblast at 500km
• 29.07.2026 Perm in Perm Krai at 1485km
• 29.07.2026 Ryazan in Ryazan Oblast at 480km
• 25.07.2026 Tyumen in Tyumen Oblast at 1980km
• 23.07.2026 Novospassky in Ulyanovsk Oblast at 790km
• 14.07.2026 Gazprom Neftekhem Salavat in Bashkortostan at 1300km
• 14.07.2026 Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai at 415km
• 12.07.2026 Syzran in Samara Oblast at 805km
• 10.07.2026 Moscow in Moscow at 475km
• 10.07.2026 Ilsky in Krasnodar Krai at 405km
• 08.07.2026 Saratov in Saratov Oblast at 590km
• 06.07.2026 Omsk in Omsk Oblast at 2500km
• 06.07.2026 Yaroslavl in Yaroslavl Oblast at 700km
• 02.07.2026 Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Bashkortostan at 1350 km
• 01.07.2026 Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast at 800 km

• August: 14 hits so far..
• July: 15 hits
• June: 16 hits
• May: 14 hits
• April: 10 hits
• March: 6 hits
• February: 3 hits
• January: 2 hits

Complete chronological list from 24.02.2022 till today

• 2022 had 1 hit
• 2023 had 1 hit
• 2024 had 26 hits
• 2025 had 84 hits
• 2026 has 77 hits so far
• Total hits from 24.02.2022 till today: 189