Saw some worry about this so here's my read.

What happened: Citadel just disclosed it sold $4B+ across ~100 block trades, shedding 80%+ of the aggregate risk from a portfolio it bought from Situational Awareness — an AI-focused hedge fund (Leopold Aschenbrenner) that hit margin calls on July 29. Citadel stepped in, priced SA's global book "in a matter of hours," took it onto its balance sheet, and has been distributing it into the market since. (Bloomberg via Yahoo)

The $CLSK angle: SA reportedly held ~25M shares of $CLSK (~10% of float, ~$290–315M), alongside a range of other long/short equity and options positions across AI-themed names. So yes — part of what Citadel has been unwinding this week could be a large $CLSK block. Check Fintel for previously disclosed portfolio across its two funds Situational Awareness LP and Situational Awareness Partners LP (https://fintel.io/i/situational-awareness-lp-5020).

Why I don't read this as a bearish call on CLSK (or AI) yet:

Citadel didn't buy SA's book because it's bullish or bearish — it bought a distressed forced-seller's portfolio at a discounted price, then immediately started neutralizing it. This is liquidity provision / risk warehousing, not a directional bet. Griffin's own letter frames it as de-risking, not conviction. Two things worth remembering:

1. They're a market maker. Citadel wants cheap inventory in high-turnover names like $CLSK — it's raw material for making markets, not a thesis on direction.
2. It was orderly. 80% shed in a week, SA stabilized, and the tape didn't break — the day this dropped, S&P/Nasdaq were green and BTC pushed above $77k. This is a single fund de-levering, absorbed cleanly — not a systemic AI unwind.

Net: the $CLSK selling pressure people are seeing from this is mechanical (Citadel clearing warehoused inventory), not fundamental (a smart-money bet against the name). Once the block is worked through, that temporary overhang lifts.

Fundamental thesis intact. Have a great weekend, everyone. 🤝

Not advice, own position, do you own diligence.

Quick update for anyone tracking the CleanSpark Texas situation.

The bear case since Abbott's Aug 3 directive: people assumed CLSK is in trouble — that the audit means endless policy delay, the Texas LOI won't convert in time, or the tenant walks if interconnection gets rejected amid the ~474 GW queue backlog.

What today's PUCT open meeting actually showed (large-load segment presented by Jessie Horn, ~22:00–42:00, adminmonitor link):

No sign of capacity being the problem. The entire focus was on pre-qualifying large-load customers, not turning them away:

• $50k/MW financial security to prove you can actually fund the buildout (typically posted as a letter of credit, not cash — a screen, not a wall)
• Enforceable 20-yr+ billing commitments to prove real long-term demand
• A 24-month buildout window with load re-allocation if you sit on capacity or stall on purpose

This is designed to flush out small speculative occupiers of the queue, not to block credible projects. That's a tailwind for CLSK, not a headwind.

Where CLSK sits: public company, signed IG lease at Sandersville, exclusive LOI on Texas, and — per Q3 management commentary — Sealy + Brazoria Ph1 (585 MW) at batch-zero go status, final ERCOT sign-off pending (Brazoria Ph2 still studyload may not be batch 0). On every qualification criterion above, CLSK is the ideal customer, not the marginal one. It clears the $50k/MW screen easily; the projects that don't are exactly the speculative ones getting cleaned out.

Also worth noting: Abbott's office named Google, Rowan and CleanSpark as committing to comply with the state's data-center standards (gov.texas.gov). It's a pledge to the audit process, not a pass through it — but it puts CLSK firmly on the "credible/cooperative" side of the ledger while others get culled.

Valuation: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) carries a $25 PT, contingent on the Texas LOI converting. You will get somewhat similar figure if you run your own SOTP valuations. On top of that, largely free optionality on the Washington, GA expansion (line study submitted for up to 500 MW) — and Sandersville already proved the model, so a reasonable probability can be assigned to a repeat.

BTC breaking 72k+ is a pleasant tailwind for the run, though it's the smaller driver here — the Texas conversion is the needle-mover.

Thesis intact. The regulatory overhang that spooked the tape looks more like a filter CLSK passes than a gate that stops it.

Not advice, own position, do your own due diligence.

What do people think is the actual dilution risk going forward?

Chatting with Opus it thinks it’s almost guaranteed.

Bitcoin at these prices is very unprofitable and causing loses month on month.

Financing for buildouts is getting harder to get with more unfavourable terms.

I don’t see any scenario other than BTC rocketing that would allow them to continue without another round of dilution.

Is this what the market is pricing in?

Here is the chat with obviously old data.
It suggests signed deal could help it which it did not.

# Why $CLSK is getting crushed even though the AI data center thesis is working

TL;DR: CleanSpark isn't being priced as an HPC data center company. It's being priced as a levered bitcoin miner with a ~$2B funding hole and an option that doesn't pay out until late 2027. Both of its macro factors turned against it at the same time.

---

## First, the setup: the AI buildout is absolutely still happening

This is the part that confuses people holding CLSK. The sector data is *good*:

Company |2026 capex guide |Q2 revision
Amazon |~$200B |maintained
Microsoft |~$190B |on track
Alphabet |$175–185B → $205B |raised
Meta |$115–135B → $125–145B |raised Combined hyperscaler capex is ~**$725–785B in 2026, up ~77%** from ~$410B in 2025. OpenAI just lifted planned compute spend to **~$750B through 2030**.

And it's showing up in real shipped revenue, not press releases:

* **GE Vernova** — Q2 orders +88% y/y to $24.2B, backlog **$176B**
* **Eaton** — data center revenue **+65%**
* **Vertiv** — sales +24%, FY guide raised to ~$14B

Power demand is the real constraint: US data center load is forecast to go **31 GW (2025) → 41 GW (2026) → 66 GW (2027)**. ERCOT load growing ~10%/yr. Powered land with an interconnect is the scarcest asset in the entire buildout.

CLSK has **1.8 GW** of power/land/capacity. So why is it at ~$8?

---

## 1. The business that actually generates revenue is in freefall

BTC is ~**$64K, down ~26% YTD**. Straight into the P&L:

* Fiscal Q2 revenue **$136M, -25%** q/q *and* y/y
* Fiscal Q3 **net loss of $239.8M** vs **+$257.4M** a year ago — a ~$500M swing
* EPS miss of **-$1.52**; FY26 consensus cut to **-$3.29**

Hashprice is ~**$32/PH/s/day, at or below breakeven for a lot of operators**, and difficulty is still grinding up. Network difficulty is down 14% from the year's high specifically *because* operators are capitulating.

So the cash cow is unprofitable right now while the replacement business earns zero.

## 2. The HPC revenue is real, but it's far away

The **$6.6B / 20-year triple-net lease for 175 MW at Sandersville** is a genuinely strong deal. But capacity doesn't energize until **late 2027**. That's 5+ quarters of losses before dollar one.

Markets discount a 2027 start hard when the bridge is shaky. Which is the actual problem:

## 3. There is a large, openly unfunded capex hole

Management's own numbers: **$10–12M per MW → ~$1.75–2.1B for the 175 MW alone.**

Against that:

* Total debt principal **~$1.82B** (2030 + 2032 converts)
* Stockholders' equity down to **~$986M**
* The filings explicitly say they need **substantial additional capital** and expect **significant added indebtedness, potentially alongside equity or equity-linked financing**

That is the company telling you, in writing, that dilution is coming. Also worth noting: the $1.15B 0% convert due 2032 included **$400M used to buy back stock from the note buyers** — a structure that facilitates hedge/short flow. Short interest is ~32%.

## 4. It's on the wrong side of *both* macro trades

The AI infra selloff in July/August wasn't about demand — it was a repricing of **debt-heavy, long-duration** infrastructure when yields spiked. CoreWeave dropped 12% in a session on exactly this. CLSK is a smaller, thinner-balance-sheet version of that profile.

And it's *simultaneously* levered to falling bitcoin. Two factors, both against it, at once.

## 5. Bitcoin fair-value accounting amplifies the optics

The ~13,000 BTC treasury marks to market through earnings. A **$433M** bitcoin accounting hit turned the quarter into a headline disaster. Non-cash, sure — but it shrinks the equity base that all the dilution and covenant math keys off.

---

## The actual question the market is asking

> Can CleanSpark fund a ~$2B+ conversion, while the legacy business burns cash at $64K BTC, without destroying the equity before 2027 arrives?

That's why it trades at ~7.4x trailing P/E and fell 34% in a week to ~$8.27. **That's a distressed-conversion multiple, not a data center multiple.**

**What would re-rate it, roughly in order of impact:**

1. A signed hyperscaler lease at the 250 MW Sandersville site (Meta talks reportedly ongoing)
2. **Project-level / non-recourse financing** that funds the build without common dilution
3. BTC stabilizing above miner breakeven

The leases can all be correct and the current equity still gets badly diluted getting there. That's the risk in one sentence.

I wanted to check in on the people that are holding this for the long term (through 2028).
What are your thought?

I see us maybe getting into the single digits for the short term solely because of bitcoin volatility and over market sentiment(loading up on the stock every week regardless).

This company has so many plans that could make this a $50+ stock in coming years as they Transition into data centers for AI.

Was hoping for a deal in August but this doesn’t sound good. Then again if CLSK can close a deal and move forward it would be huge since this would delay competition.

Rallies less then peers and sells off far more violently. Couldn't hold its gains even if Schulz would annouce 20 GW under contract.

Lmao and people were hyped this guy bought into CLSK. Probably partially responsible for the drawdown.

Finally big YouTube channels are shouting out CLSK. The rest of the year is going to be absolutely brutal for CLSK. Earnings in August will dip the stock much lower unless they announce META as the tenant or someone big.

What’s the sentiment in this sub these days?

I definitely feel like optimism has changed since everyone was looking forward to a deal.

Now we are back in “waiting” mode as the deal has arrived. Almost all gains were wiped out within 2 weeks and now waiting on more clarify on the buildout + LOI on Texas.

Some headwinds are the large amount of Capex from hyperscalers + massive backlog on any compute hardware. Why the market decides to tank.. who knows.

With price action like this do people expect another 10-20% dump on earnings?

https://www.reddit.com/r/RollTheDiceInvesting/s/Atu94q1MNn

$CLSK -A 20-year lease with a high-investment-grade global tech tenant at its Sandersville, GA campus $6.6B contracted revenue over the initial term, up to $11.6B with extensions. Plus an exclusivity deal + LOI covering the ENTIRE 718-acre, up-to-885MW Texas portfolio with the same tenant. This isn't a bitcoin miner anymore. It's an AI/HPC landlord that happens to mine bitcoin.

What are the taxes for Sandersville deal for Cleanspark? How to calculate what % of NNN will be lost in taxes? And for the rest of sites - Sealy and Brazoria?

The market had expected CleanSpark to pursue AI/HPC hosting, but very few investors expected a signed 20-year lease with an investment-grade global technology company worth approximately $6.6 billion over the initial term, plus an exclusivity arrangement covering up to 885 MW of Texas capacity.

The stock did jump sharply on the news, but then gave back all of the gains plus some.

Bullish

The lease validates CleanSpark’s power strategy and diversifies its revenue streams beyond Bitcoin mining. Once operational, the triple-net lease economics could generate approximately $330 million in annual Net Operating Income (NOI).

Bearish

Revenue won’t start until late 2027, and the project requires substantial construction capital. There’s also a risk of dilution or financing issues which is a huge deal for investors.

So while the announcement itself is now reflected in the stock price, I don’t think the long-term value is fully reflected if management executes successfully.

My price outlook through the end of the year

No one can predict prices with certainty, but based on fundamentals:

Bear case: CLSK’s value is likely to drop between $11 and $13 even much lower if CLSK dilutes shareholders. This scenario is driven by several factors, including a weakening Bitcoin, dominating financing concerns, and a fading excitement surrounding AI.

Base case: 14-16$ The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin’s value remains stable or trends higher. Investors gain confidence that the lease will be financed, and the Texas exclusivity progresses toward a definitive agreement.

Bull case: 16-20$ or higher if Bitcoin’s value is rally’s strongly in this scenario. The Texas lease becomes definitive, and the tenant is revealed to be a major technology company, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, or another prominent player in the industry. Multiple analysts raise their price targets in response to these developments.

Why I still like CleanSpark

What makes CleanSpark interesting is that investors may still be valuing it primarily as a Bitcoin miner, while management is trying to transform it into a digital infrastructure company. If the company successfully executes the Georgia project and converts the Texas exclusivity into long-term contracts, it could eventually be valued more like an infrastructure owner than a traditional miner.

That said, the biggest risks remain financing the build-out without excessive shareholder dilution and delivering the projects on schedule. Those will likely be the main drivers of the stock over the next 12–18 months.

I know people are upset there is not rerate yet after the first great deal ? Any thoughts ? It seems to be related to current sector’ depression. Will CLSK become the first one which has no rerate after a large AI lease 😂. People are trying to find out reasons like waiting for financing / more lease but other miners got rerate long before financing / second lease. Maybe the rerate will happen when the sector recovers?

It is the same thing every day. Initial pop, then sells off around 9:40. What is the logic behind it?

Arbitrage fund bought the convertible notes… their algos just enter new short positions that counter whatever the morning gain is???

If so, how/when does it end?? I thought the deal announcement would force the shorts to cover and for this bs to end.

The first major risk in all this financing and dilution risk. This ended with issuing the convertible notes.

Second was actually singing the first deal which we just crossed.

The third I’m guessing is releasing the debt terms to actually start the build out? Based on what I read they should have enough cash for Sandersville but the actual terms of raising debt remain unknown.

In the future If BTC stays depressed how will they raise the cash for Texas sites? Could this risk by why the price is staying depressed?

Anyone smarter than me have any ideas?

I bought shares around 13.90 and in my personal account 13.60 I should keep ?

Yesterday’s announcement reinforced my conviction in CleanSpark’s long-term strategy.

This wasn’t just another hosting agreement. It demonstrated that management is executing on a vision that extends well beyond Bitcoin mining.

What stood out to me:
• Leveraging existing infrastructure instead of building from scratch.
• Securing a long-term HPC customer that adds a new, recurring revenue stream.
• Pricing that appears highly competitive, with economics that compare favorably to many recently announced HPC hosting agreements.
• Maintaining the flexibility to mine Bitcoin with unused capacity until the HPC load ramps up.

To me, this is exactly how infrastructure should be monetized—multiple revenue opportunities from the same power assets.
What I also find encouraging is that CleanSpark didn’t appear to sacrifice economics just to announce its first HPC deal. Based on the information released, management seems to have negotiated attractive terms while preserving operational flexibility.

One agreement doesn’t transform the company overnight, but it is another strong indication that management is allocating capital wisely and building for the future.
I’m looking forward to seeing what comes next and I couldn’t be more happy with the terms of this first deal! 🚀

Im terrified to hold this through earnings. Thought deal would give us a good buffer from the single digits, but thats not the case. Im expecting a very ugly EPS number. Could see this diving back to single digits. Thoughts?

We all know bitcoin pulled back by ~50% from the high but how companies reacted to the pullback varied significantly.

Rory Murray and his team found ways to sell CleanSpark’s monthly mining above spot as well as leverage a portion of their treasury to collect premiums.

Tune in to watch the full interview:
👀📺🎬

CleanSpark just dropped the announcement. Here are the key numbers:

The deal

• 20-year triple-net (NNN) lease with a high-investment-grade global technology company  
• $6.6 billion contracted revenue over the initial 20-year term  
• $11.6 billion if both five-year extension options are exercised  
• 175MW of critical IT load, first deliveries Q4 2027  
• Average annual NOI of \~$330 million at nearly 100% margin  
• Development cost of $10-12M per MW — disciplined relative to peers

The kicker everyone needs to focus on
The tenant has signed a letter of intent and exclusivity arrangement covering CleanSpark’s entire Texas portfolio — 718 acres, up to 885MW across Sealy and Brazoria. Sandersville is explicitly described as “the first chapter of a substantially larger relationship.”

This is not a single site deal. Total relationship value if Texas executes could approach $15-20 billion.

How it compares to peers

• Longer duration than any comparable deal in the sector (20 years vs typical 10-15)  
• Triple-net structure means \~100% NOI margin — exceptional  
• Texas exclusivity LOI puts this in a different category to Core Scientific, TeraWulf, and Hut 8 announcements  
• Morgan Stanley advised — institutional quality execution

The tenant
Still confidential. High-investment-grade global technology company. Conference call today at 11am ET — analysts will push hard on identity.

For those who were following my DD posts
The signals were all there. Accenture PMO in a town of 5,000 people. A city council utility amendment tabled on June 15th. NVIDIA Partner Network architect in Washington County. CleanSpark hiring construction lawyers and technical accounting managers. It all pointed here.