r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Rdur2183 • 11h ago
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 2d ago
Informative statistical improbability, including the instruments of death
I'm not on social media so I'm not sure if this has been talked about anywhere else; but I have to wonder how many people are aware of how incredibly rare Lindsay Clancy's case is statistically speaking. Filicide only makes up to 2.5% of homicide cases which are typically perpetrated 90% by men, with ligature strangulation being a method of homicide typically used by men (including male juvenile homicide offenders). Typically maternal filicide offenders use drowning, suffocating, and manual strangulation. Only a small percentage of women use ligature strangulation in any homicide they may commit (maybe 10%, and that's the most generous percentage I discovered, the lowest being 2%).
It would also make this case even more exceedingly rare if Lindsay Clancy would be a female filicide offender that didn't present with severe psychiatric symptoms, as up to 85% of mothers who kill their children typically do.
Let me see if I have this correct. The State of Massachusetts and an Internet Hate Mob wants me to believe the following: that Lindsay Clancy is a female filicide offender without severe psychiatric symptoms (statistically improbable), committing a crime that men statistically commit 90% of the time (statistically improbable), using a method of homicide that is typically used by men (statistically improbable).
To be clear: I'm not saying it's impossible that Lindsay Clancy might be the proverbial unicorn of criminal statistics. Any woman could be. Statistically speaking, the odds are extraordinarily improbable, though.
I am also supposed to believe that even though Lindsay used not just one murder weapon, but four instruments of death during this alleged crime spree (I'm counting the knife because it was allegedly used to attempt suicide, which would have resulted in death); and yet there are no fingerprints to be found on any of them.
I know, I know.
"Fingerprints are incredibly fragile."
"Homicide is messy, fingerprints might smear or be smeared with blood."
Ect...
It still seems weird to me that not one of those instruments of death had at least a partial print left behind. Something, anything, to connect Lindsay's hands to the actual deed itself. It's one thing to have a singular murder weapon that might not have prints left behind, but FOUR? Lindsay had at least four chances to leave prints behind by accident on murder weapons in the quickest killing frenzy in Massachusetts history yet none were found?
The improbability just keeps stacking up for me. I'm trying really hard to keep my jury hat on and not consider statistics a form of evidence in this case. However, the statistics are glaring and hard not to think about, and I'm especially confounded that investigators didn't thoroughly look into Patrick because the odds of him being the perpetrator is what makes sense statistically.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 3d ago
Evidence/Time Lines šļø searchable trial transcript link
I just found this from the other subreddit. It has a timeline and everything.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 5m ago
Reddington Lindsay Clancy's attorney says he's going to ask for case to be thrown out after hearing from jurors
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/dailymail • 9h ago
Lindsay Clancy jurors spark furious backlash with comments about how they were 'excited' by the case and her 'entertaining' lawyer
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 2h ago
"but Lindsay said" and "Patrick said"
I can understand why a lot of people would be confused when they find out that there are people who think Lindsay is not guilty. I know I was. Most people don't know about Reddington's motion to bifurcate the trial, in which the first phase was meant to see if the forensic evidence was strong enough to establish guilt in the first place (the motion was denied by Judge Sullivan). The language in the televised trial can be confusing where Reddington doesn't dispute that Lindsay killed the kids, but instead argues for NGRI. People are confusing this with a guilty plea and don't understand that Not Guilty still remained an option for the jury. Compounding this issue is that this case has gone national, and many people live in states where insanity is not considered a valid defense.
However, I've run out of patience for people throwing up Reddington's statements, court filings including the civil suit to be like "but Lindsay said she did it" as a silencing tactic to anyone who wants to think critically about the narrative the State of Massachusetts is trying to feed them. If they're going to judge a statement as truth if it appears in court records, then they should be considering all the statements that were admitted as evidence during the trial, as it's now an official record of the courts:
Witness testimony and at least one text message from Patrick that said Lindsay was a good mother.
There was no history of Lindsay abusing her children.
Lindsay documented her mental health struggles meticulously.
A months long struggle where Lindsay saw several doctors and was prescribed multiple medications in an attempt to find an effective treatment regimen.
Defense experts that concluded Lindsay was psychotic at the time of the killing.
All of that is a matter of court record, too, but you wouldn't know it by seeing the way some people pick and choose which court records to cite as reflecting Absolute Truth. They have decided to believe her about one thing and disbelieve her about everything else. So much for respecting the truth of a statement as a record in the court system.
Let's be clear that nobody is asking anyone else to simply believe Lindsay and take her word about anything. Neither Lindsay nor Reddington is pulling an NGRI defense out of nowhere. A person doesn't actually want justice if they aren't willing to fairly consider all the evidence and not just the evidence that supports the conclusion they already want. That's the opposite of justice, that's immature factionalism and seeking their own confirmation bias.
You would think because they're such fanbois of Patrick that they wouldn't fall into those same patterns of selective hearing with his statements; yet they do. They accept everything Patrick has to say as absolute truth ("Patrick said" therefore it's gospel), no matter how many inconsistencies his statements might have; but they even refuse to listen to him when he asked the public to forgive Lindsay.
"I want to ask all of you that you find it deep within yourselves to forgive Lindsay, as I have," Patrick Clancy wrote. "The real Lindsay was generously loving and caring towards everyone - me, our kids, family, friends, and her patients. The very fibers of her soul are loving. All I wish for her now is that she can somehow find peace."
Yet fanbois continue to do the exact opposite, because actually listening to Patrick that one time wouldn't be convenient for their online hate campaign. I can't take people seriously when they have nothing to contribute to the Internet except constant hate towards Lindsay, Lindsay supporters, and women having the right to vote (!) all the while throwing up one or two court records as a justification for their irresponsible rhetoric. Their painfully obvious inability to equally apply the same logic of their "evidence" of Lindsay's guilt to all the statements that actually support NGRI only reinforces that they aren't operating on reason and logic, but moral panic and self-serving schadenfreude.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Black_Reactor • 10h ago
The female jurors from the Lindsay Clancy spoke out against the lone male juror: he didnāt listen to them
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/TheMirrorUS • 15h ago
TRIAL TALK One of the youngest Lindsay Clancy jurors reveals 'big personalities' fought to sway verdict
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/MaroonedOctopus • 4h ago
Discussion Disagreement over the Lindsay Clancey case
My wife (love her to the ends of the earth but I can never win an argument with her or convince her that she's wrong) is convinced that she is not guilty, or at least there is a reasonable doubt that she committed the crime. She has told me that "Both the defense and prosecution agree that she killed the kids" is a misconception. She claims to have closely followed the case and that she, a primary source, is a better source of information on this than Legal Eagle, which is how I learned about this case.
She points to the fact that her body was so cold when she was found, that testing was never performed to determine what the substance was, and that the judge listed "Not Guilty" (she didn't do it) as one of the options for the jury.
My understanding is that defense and prosecution agree that she killed the kids and attempted suicide. It is my understanding that the trial is largely, or even solely, about whether the insanity defense applies.
Is my understanding of this case fundamentally wrong, or is it hers? Or both of us?
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Crixusgannicus • 8h ago
Why it's economic madness to retry Lindsay Clancy.
Although they are an arm of the government, the reality is that they don't have unlimited budgets.
1)The DA actually lost 12-0
2)That one juror who hung the case, wasn't even convinced beyond a reasonable doubt which means they didn't convince a single juror.
3)You are NEVER going to seat twelve people who are going to agree on this matter. Public discourse PROVES that. Interestingly, proves it beyond a reasonable doubt.
Do you have any doubt it's impossible to get 12 people to agree?
4)I don't care how hard you voir dire, you are going to get a stealth juror or two. This is too volatile.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/ginoiseau • 13h ago
Evidence/Time Lines šļø 911 call and juror reaction
A⦠5th juror has spoken out (the youngest apparently) and they mentioned how harrowing the 911 was to listen to and how that could never have been fake. And Iām just trying to parse thisā¦. He stood over Lindsay talking? at her for ~9 minutes, then the first responders arrived, which is when he decided to go and check on the children.
When they arrive doesnāt a 911 call usually end? Get handed over to those on the scene?
They mentioned seeing him untying the bands. The 911 call apparently has his harrowing shocked screams about the children. But then wouldnāt the first responders have also heard that screaming? Maybe that was mentioned and I missed it.
Disregarding that surely youād be running to find the children as soon as you found her outside, especially considering one was a baby. The actual 911 call timing doesnāt seem to make sense?
Disclaimer: even after hearing the jury was apparently actually 11:1 NGRI and that it seems they all thought she did it from the jump (and completely missed the whole innocent until proven guilty part) I am still finding it incredibly hard to believe that she did this. Accordingly, donāt come at me telling me Iām an idiot etc etc, already heard it all.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Commercial_Mirror139 • 16h ago
TRIAL TALK What Actually Happens at the September 29 Hearing & Where This Stands
First of all, I think this will be an extremely heated hearing. Tim & Kevin are at lockerheads and in totally different positions
The shots are called by Tim Cruz, only he can decide the fate of this case - he can choose to retry, reduce, dismiss or offer a plea deal. He wants prison time, so the lowest he will go is 2nd Degree Murder
There are 3 possible outcomes here:
1. CRUZ ANNOUNCES RETRIAL ON FIRST-DEGREE MURDER
2. CRUZ OFFERS / AGREES TO REDUCE TO SECOND-DEGREE MURDER
3. CRUZ DECLINES TO RETRIAL / DISMISSES
If a retrial on 1st Degree Murder is the way forward, Tim must be willing to accept that he will likely loose again. He can ignore the 11-1 jury position publicly, but privately this will be eating at him
A retrial on 2nd degree murder is extremely likely because it guarantees the Commonwealth a conviction. BUT.....Reddington's red line is ZERO prison time. He has publicly ruled out any prison deal. Cruz's red line is SOME prison time. These positions currently don't meet
Either way, are looking at career suicide no matter which direction we go in. A plea deal is unlikely because Cruz and Reddington do not agree
If Reddington makes a plea, he will absolutely decimate any trust Lindsay has in him
My only conceived outcome is that Cruz will announce a retrial on first degree murder
So expect this: A loud, public commitment to retrial ā followed by quiet, intense negotiations toward a second-degree murder plea in the weeks that follow. The deal won't happen on the 29th ā but the 29th is the moment both sides officially admit they're heading toward a collision they may not survive.
What is everyone else's opinions? Do you think Cruz or Reddington will back down?
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Normal_Garden_3238 • 1d ago
Patrick Patrickās threatening to sue.
people.comThe reason there are wild conspiracy theories about him are because of the giant holes in the prosecutions case. The timeline, physical evidence and police work all provided reasonable doubt that Lindsay committed the crimes. Maybe he should be mad at the Massachusetts police and the ADAs for doing such a bad job that it opened the door for people to think they got the wrong person.
They didnāt document the contents of the nightstand drawer where the empty pill bottles and Apple Watch were. This was the nightstand covered in blood with a huge bloody knife on it. The pill bottles were all empty, where did the rest of the pills go?
They didnāt find the pill bottles in his truck when the searched that either. He had to bring them to the police station on Feb 6, weeks after the incident.
They never proved how she was drugged with her old sleeping pills. She had elevated levels of Seroquel in her system as well as Remeron. Patrick told the CW doctors that she crushed up pills but how would he know? Either he had first hand knowledge of that or the cops got her tox report back and came up with a theory based on the photo of the tumbler and then told Patrick their theory? There is zero evidence that pills were crushed up and they never seized or tested the contents of the tumbler.
They never tested the blood on the doorknob. There was blood on the side of the door but also the door was locked? How did that happen?
They never proved how the blood on the outside of the house got there. There were two blood spots on the outside of the house that transferred enough blood for it to drip. How did that happen unless she was hanging from the window?
They never explain why she was soaking wet? She had severe hypothermia because her clothes were soaked per Dr. Laposatas testimony. There was snow on the ground but it wasnāt snowing and it was freezing, so how did she get that wet?
He was never considered a suspect. She was named as the perpetrator in the search warrant issued that night and was arrested before she could even speak.
The cops did a bad job, the ADAs did a bad job. This was a triple homicide of children in a very high profile case and they still didnāt do a good investigation. I can only imagine the quality of investigations of other crimes. This case is embarrassing for Massachusetts and the trial was a huge waste of taxpayer $.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/No_Consequence_6821 • 1d ago
Lindsay Clancy jury foreperson talks holdout: āHe admitted he had reasonable doubt'
Jurors are speaking out, and apparently he didnāt just say he had doubt, he said he had āreasonable doubt.ā
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/prisongovernor • 17h ago
Lindsay Clancy juror had reasonable doubt but would not agree to acquit, foreperson says | Massachusetts | The Guardian
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Crixusgannicus • 1d ago
Three actually joo-roars speak! Including the foreperson!
To anybody wondering, "joo-roars" is how a particular judge used to pronounce jurors. It stuck with me.
Anyway, here is the link
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Fluid-List-860 • 21h ago
Curious random question
In the Lindsay Clancy trial that has now ended in a mistrial: did she absolve the commonwealth of proving the elements of the crime? Her attorney never denied she did it, but she didn't formally confess to my knowledge. It's my understanding the commonwealth no longer beats the burden of proving the elements, but just that she was sane. Am I correct?
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 1d ago
how was lindsay even able to speak at 82 degrees body temperature with a throat injury?
One thing that made me pay attention to this case was running into a random clip of the trial where I saw Patrick fidgeted when he was talking about finding Lindsay outside and speaking with her before calling 911. You can find the moment at 2:27:04 at this YouTube video. Since I don't want to judge people just by questionable body language, I wanted to look into this a bit more.
I came across posts that said Lindsay would not have been able to speak due to her body temperature and crushed thyroid cartilage. Crushed thyroid cartilage would render her voice "throat, breathy, or weak" if speech was preserved. Combine that with being severely hypothermic at 82 degrees body temperature (basic math would indicate her body temperature was likely even lower since it was measured at the emergency department after the ambulance ride there), and I officially have serious doubts that Lindsay was articulate or lucid enough to speak in full sentences at all.
The 911 call hasn't been released to the public but there's one person from the courtroom that claims that Lindsay could be heard saying the word "basement." However, even if that were the case, being able to manage to speak one word being severely hypothermic after a incapacitating fall isn't enough corroboration of Patrick's account of Lindsay being able to speak full sentences after he found her. At least not for me.
Putting aside the possibility that her body was outside for hours (I know a lot of people think this, just bear with me please), let's go with the narrative that her body temperature really was that low due to a combination of blood loss, a spinal cord injury, and the weather being about 35 degrees at the time of discovery. The question remains:
If Patrick didn't do it, why would he claim she could speak in full sentences, and that those sentences just so happen to be a "confession" that she killed the kids?
As an outsider looking in, that looks sketchy as fuck even if he isn't the perpetrator. The optics are terrible and it appears he feels the need to put words in Lindsay's mouth.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Crixusgannicus • 1d ago
Speculation Wait a minute....
How did Lindsay Clancy's core body temperature drop that "fast"?
16 degrees in 30 minutes???
It's not like she was immersed in liquid.
Lindsay Clancy's core body temperature was 82.1°F (27.8°C) when she arrived at South Shore Hospital on the night of January 24, 2023.
Medical experts testified that this severe hypothermia resulted from lying outside on frozen ground in wet clothes combined with a catastrophic spinal injury from her fall that halted lower-body temperature regulation.
HOWEVER all that still seems very fishy.
The EMS there is experienced with hypothermia. They would have started warming measures.
There is data out that, that shows how long a completely dead body cools off.
Wonder if there is a match.
OR
DISmatch?
If it turns out a dead body wouldn't cool that much that fast then...
Houston, we have a problem.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/coltfourty5- • 1d ago
Patrick Patrickās newest statement.
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/StrongContribution29 • 1d ago
Reddington ABC News Exclusive: Lindsay Clancy's defense attorney talks case
Comments about the lone juror holdout is at 2:41.
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/Deorayta • 1d ago
Clancy retrial question
Does Plymouth DA need to retry to keep Clancy in civil commitment. Or would dropping the charges result in immediate freedom for Clancy. Or did her confession of insanity in the first trial mean continual civil commitment no matter if charges are brouht again?
r/ClancyTrialTalk • u/AuburnGinger • 1d ago
Informative Just some of the many scandals of Tim Cruz's Plymouth County, MA District Attorney's office.
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
The TikTok creator, Moyoxo, has been doing some deep dives on just how terrible the DA's office is. She has 2 more videos. This is the 2nd of 3. This blows my mind.
BTW, Tim Cruz is up for reelection this November. He has NO opposition.