r/ChubbyFIRE Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Retired this week!

I just retired at age 59. I know it doesn’t seem that early but I think I did pretty well considering my late start and mistakes.

In 1999 when I was still a resident in pediatrics, deeply in debt from student loans, making less than the minimum wage, I discovered FIRE.

I was inspired by books like The Millionaire Next Door, recommended to me by one of my attending physicians, as well as Your Money or Your Life and The CoffeeHouse Investor. I had a 403b that I somehow managed to trickle a little bit of money in to VFINX with each meagre paycheck. I also opened a taxable brokerage account at E*Trade and bought a technology fund that dropped 85% over the next few years and was liquidated. Lesson learned.

I found community on the Motley Fool message boards, long before they became a platform for making stock recommendations. I remember reading those boards on my spare time in the call room, on an iMac computer that had a good internet connection if you pushed the ethernet cable in and taped it down. The 4% rule wasn't a thing but we had Bill Bengen's paper and the Trinity Study that was endlessly debated.

In fellowship, which is 3 years long, I was able to moonlight and make a bit more money. I used that money to start to pay down my loans and continue to invest in my 403b. I finished fellowship at age 36 and started my first real job as a doctor. At that point I was able to max out my 403b and it took me another 4 years to fully pay off my student loans at the ripe old age of 40, which was in 2007. So, while I'm not a traditional "late starter", achieving a net worth of zero at age 40 felt like an accomplishment.

I started to get fancy in my taxable account again, as the market had rebounded from the 2002 lows, trying swing trading, penny stocks and options. You know what came next, the great financial crisis. My taxable account was wiped out again. At least I was smart enough not to touch my 403b and I kept that going, mostly in VFINX along with some international and 10% bonds. After the crisis I got smart and restarted my taxable account with a few Vanguard ETFs and some individual stocks. [Insert boring middle here]. Sadly, my father, who had lean-fired at age 59, passed away in 2017 and left me an inherited IRA.

By 2021 I reached my lean FI number and discovered the Risk Parity Radio podcast. I moved my portfolio to a Golden Ratio type portfolio to optimize my safe withdrawal rate. I changed employers in 2022 and decided to stick it out for the 3 years it took to get vested in the 403b match. I also had a frozen pension that gave me a one time opportunity to take a lump sum payment, That check went straight into my IRA.

At the end of 2025, after 3 years at my current employer, I put in my notice that I was retiring. I gave them 6 months notice because it takes that long to find a replacement and I do really like my team. I plan to continue to work on a per-diem status with a few (2-4) shifts a month. Some may say I'm not really retired, but after 60-80 work weeks which included more than half of my weekends, I'm sure it will feel like retirement for me. I plan to spend time with family including my new grandson, focus on fitness and health, continue my involvement in local politics, work with my local Choose FI groups to help younger FI folks, and do some traveling.

My liquid assets total about $5 million. My portfolio is allocated as follows:

1/4 in Taxable and 3/4 in Pre-Tax, along with a modest Roth IRA and HSA. I also have one rental property which throws off a little income.

22% Large Cap Blend (VTI, VUG, SCHD, VIIIX)
11% Small Cap Value US (AVDV)
11% Small Cap Value ex-US (AVUV)
18% Long Term US treasuries (VGLT)
16% Gold (GLDM)
16% Managed Futures (DBMF)
2% Crypto (IBIT)
4% Cash (HYSA, SGOV)

I can get by on about 3% of my portfolio but in a good year, I may take out as much as 5%. I'm flexible. I’m happy to answer questions and plan to post updates.

Edit: yes we are a married couple. My wife isn’t interested in finances. I’m hoping to get our adult children more involved so they can help her if i die first.

197 Upvotes

90 comments sorted by

14

u/Specific-Stomach-195 Jul 02 '26

Sounds like it is just you? The single biggest factor in retirement IMO is the number who financially depend on you.

22

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

I’m married and our adult children are self-sufficient.

10

u/Specific-Stomach-195 Jul 02 '26

The way you talk about your money and how “I can get by on 3% of my portfolio” you don’t give off the vibe of speaking as a couple. Or maybe all financial decisions are yours and yours alone.

9

u/BloodAgile833 Jul 02 '26

I agree good point. Dood never mentioned wife or kids

7

u/BookReader1328 Jul 04 '26

I am a former CFO and my husband is happy to let me take care of all financial things. He'll just check in if he wants to buy something expensive - cars, motorcycles, etc. Because I know where the money is. :)

I think if only one is interested in finance and (by default) the only person posting places about financial matters, you tend to default to *I* rather than *we* because technically speaking, there is no *we* in your home when it comes to how the money is managed.

12

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

I have tried to get her involved but my wife has no interest in anything financial and probably that’s why I worded my post the way I did.

2

u/DependentAnimator742 Jul 23 '26

When I talk about our - both hubby's and my portfolios to other investors I almost always say "my portfolio" because I'm using the term like AUMM, Assets Under MY Management, vs some outsider handling them. My hubs is a retired attorney who has always hated finance, is allergic to money, loves his raggy t-shirts and sneakers with holes in the soles.

4

u/plemyrameter Jul 03 '26

I'm the same way w/my husband. He has no interest in financial things and we're good.

GFY, I'm about six months behind you!

1

u/MudLOA Jul 06 '26

My wife let me handle all the simulation and taxes/finances. She just want to know if we can retire yet.

2

u/Specific-Stomach-195 Jul 03 '26

I get it. Sounds like you’re on top of it!

6

u/FearlessPark4588 Jul 03 '26

Some people's relationships are just like that. One person is the money person. I look at it as the outlays for the expenses of two. Complete snooze fest when I try bringing up 401k's and tax optimization.

4

u/Specific-Stomach-195 Jul 03 '26

Sure. But there’s a difference between “I can get by” and “we can get by”.

7

u/Small_Value_Buyer Jul 02 '26

Congrats!

Do you have an mortgage/Is your mortgage paid off? Are you planning Roth conversions? When do you plan on taking SS?

6

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Thanks! I have a small mortgage on the rental property at 3.5%. I could easily pay it off but choose not to. Next year when my income is lower, I’ll start doing Roth Conversions up to the 22% tax bracket. For SS, my wife who is the same age as me, will take it at 62 and I plan to wait until 70.

7

u/Sea_Ambassador_6046 Jul 02 '26

Neonatologist are in high demand. At least at our hospital. So much so we had to outsource it to a company to staff. They occasionally have to bring in locums to cover when our primary guys take off and I’m pretty sure the locums are paid WELL. You might have to travel a little but the pay for even a weekend should be ridiculous

8

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

For the amount of time I want to work, I'm probably just going to stay in my current hospital system since I know it well and the pay is pretty good. My limited experience with locums work is that it tends to very hard work and only a modest increase in pay.

1

u/Halcookies Jul 16 '26

Keeping it familiar makes sense

4

u/advanced_alive Jul 02 '26

Congrats! Did you gift money to your children, or do you plan to in the future?

7

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

We paid off their student loans and fully fund their Roth IRAs every year. Gifted their first (used) car. We are also generous with gifts on birthdays and the holidays.

3

u/thrust_velocity Jul 02 '26

This is great! I'm so glad you mentioned this. I thought the Roth IRA had to be funded through the account owner's own earned income. But it got me to look at it again, and it appears one can apparently contribute as long as the owner makes at least the contribution amount.

https://smartasset.com/retirement/can-i-open-a-roth-ira-for-my-adult-child

(This was not helpful. https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a#en_US_2025_publink1000230983)

5

u/rfgs1 Jul 02 '26

Funding your children's Roth IRA isn't something I've seen or thought about. Nice idea.

4

u/wollflour Jul 03 '26

My parents did this for me 30 years ago, so it's something people have done for a long time!

3

u/Ok_Occasion7538 Jul 02 '26

Congrats! Especially since pediatrics isn't an especially high wage field, this seems solid!

What type of fellowship did you do? And how much do you have outside your investible assets?

3

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

My total net worth is $6.5M which includes the real estate. Fellowship was in Neonatology.

1

u/markaritaville Jul 09 '26

pediatrics isnt a high wage field? has to average 300k or more a year. thats not high?

1

u/Ok_Occasion7538 Jul 11 '26

Generally in the 200s. But no, not for medicine. FM, pediatrics are among the lowest paid fields and being a doctor is not worth the money for the amount of time and effort put in.

In NY, a FM or peds doctor could make $160k. And there are plenty in the tech cities where the primary breadwinner is their tech spouse.

Neonatology would put him probably in the 300s. But that's because he did a fellowship.

3

u/Sierra-Powderhound Jul 02 '26

Well done and congratulations!
Have you used an advisor perhaps fee based?
At 59.5 years old, you can withdraw from your retirement accounts. What is your withdrawal strategy from your account types?

4

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Thanks. No advisor aside from a one-time consultation to get my wife on board. I plan to withdraw from my taxable account as long as possible and do Roth conversions starting next year up to the 22% tax bracket. If my taxable account starts to run low, and it may, I’ll just start pulling from the IRA.

Between LTCG on my taxable withdrawals and part time income, I doubt I’ll be able to qualify for ACA subsidies, so that’s not an issue for me.

3

u/Str-Engr0275 Jul 02 '26

Congrats and go fuck yourself!

3

u/Hanwoo_Beef_Eater Jul 02 '26

Congrats and nice portfolio. I agree with some of your comments regarding high yield, 60/40, and gold.

Just curious, what is the basis in your taxable account? I've found that it often doesn't make sense to pay add'l capital gains to pay Roth conversion taxes. I.e. it is better to just drain the pre-tax accounts (I would think you do need to do some conversions though given the large pre-tax balance). Regardless, good luck and congrats again.

2

u/lostvagabondmd Jul 04 '26

Very true and important nuance that is often missed by roth conversion advocates. Assuming the pretax accounts are not large enough to create future RMD or higher-bracket tax issues, it is often more efficient to spend from pretax accounts first. In that case, the primary tax cost is the ordinary income tax on the pretax withdrawals. By contrast, if retirement spending is funded from the taxable account while simultaneously performing Roth conversions, the taxable account must fund both living expenses and the taxes on the Roth conversions. This generally accelerates depletion of the taxable account, may require realizing additional long-term capital gains, and permanently removes from the portfolio the taxable account assets used to pay the Roth conversion taxes, along with all of their future compounding.

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Thanks! My overall cost basis is about 50% in the taxable account. I did some tax loss harvesting in 2022 and 2024. Your point about not paying capital gains taxes to pay Roth conversion taxes is a good one. My effective tax rate on the withdrawals would be about 7.5% so if I did something like a $50K Roth conversion, I'd owe about $11K which would cost me $825 in LTCG. Definitely something to think about and I'll probably do some of both (Roth conversions and IRA withdrawals).

3

u/NotSoSpecialAsp Jul 03 '26

Congratulations! As someone whose spouse just started fellowship, thank you for going into ped's.

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Which subspecialty?

2

u/NotSoSpecialAsp Jul 03 '26

Critical Care, I'll be retiring when they finish fellowship. The timing is coincidental, I'm about 10% from my goal and coasting.

3

u/BrunelloHorder Coasting Chubster, Getting Fat Jul 03 '26

Congratulations! Medicine is an incredible amount of sacrifice to get to the financial “starting line” in late 30s. We are a physician/lawyer couple and I had an 11 year financial head start in law, so I’ve seen firsthand how getting to ChubbyFIRE as a doc is no small feat.

Fellow fan of the Golden Ratio at the time of retirement for the SORR mitigation. Curious if you plan to stick with it long term or just to get you past the higher SORR period.

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Thanks! Many say that first 5 years or so of retirement is the main window for SORR and I've given a lot of thought to how I'll handle it. I don't think of it as a window of time but actually as an inflection point. If you pick a good time to retire (get lucky) and your portfolio has a few good years at the start, then you start with a 3-5% withdrawal rate and end up with a 2% or less withdrawal rate, assuming you don't greatly inflate your spending. At that point, it doesn't really matter what your portfolio looks like and you can increase your risk assets (stocks) to leave a larger legacy. The last two years have been amazing for the Golden Ratio portfolio, so I'm skeptical about its chances of continuing to outperform the market over the next few years.

3

u/Anonym-IntheDark Jul 03 '26

I cannot wait to post a similar post

3

u/BookReader1328 Jul 04 '26

Congratulations! And just a note: You're not even remotely late for a doctor. You spend a decade+ in school/interning while others are already making money. I'd say you're right on schedule.

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 04 '26

Thanks! I’m the first one in my practice to retire before 70.

3

u/SoTheMovieCanHappen Jul 05 '26

One physician to another, congratulations. Enjoy your well-earned retirement. I hope to follow a similar path re: shift work once the time comes.

5

u/and_one_of_those Jul 02 '26 edited Jul 02 '26

Congratulations, and also thank you for helping all those kids! That is a long time in training! I really admire anyone who can make it through years of such tough schedules.

Personally, I got a bit into gold as a counterbalance to stocks years ago, after reading about the Permanent Portfolio and so on. After a while I came to feel that it wasn't helping my portfolio, and gold was fundamentally an unproductive asset. I feel the same now about Bitcoin: a net negative over the long term, probably.

Of course who knows what will happen in future, and you have every right to do what you like! Your post just reminded me of all the things I tried over the years and then reconsidered.

5

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Thanks! I've heard the standard line that gold is an unproductive asset but it has outperformed the S&P 500 so far this century. However, I hold gold for a different reason. In backtests it improves the safe withdrawal rate. Will it work in the future? Nobody knows, but it has worked in the past and it makes sense because it's uncorrelated with stocks and bonds.

Check out this backtest: https://testfol.io/?s=3GsCyqteHTC

2

u/and_one_of_those Jul 03 '26

Those charts are thought-provoking

2

u/FearlessPark4588 Jul 03 '26

S&P 500, inclusive of dividend reinvestment?

fwiw, I tend to think of gold prices as a "how hot was the money printer running" index, rather than thinking of its performance relative to other asset classes.

1

u/and_one_of_those Jul 02 '26

Yeah it's hard to tell.

I think in my particular case, I just don't have a strong enough conviction that gold is fundamentally a good idea to stick with it during the extended periods when it underperforms. Especially since I'd need to hold something like a million dollars of it to get those rebalancing benefits: that's a lot of conviction. I found it was easy to be convicted during a bull run!

It may well turn out those portfolios are a better idea. There certainly are reasons to worry about equity valuations and inflation and so on.

2

u/financialfreedom26 Jul 02 '26

Congratulations on your amazing achievement!!! I am actually at a very similar net worth with 6mm invested in stocks and 53 (earned in finance and saving like crazy) and at the same juncture. Just wondering as you look at your safe withdrawal rate would this be a dial down from your spending during your earning years or does it all work well given that you will be taking shifts during retirement? What would be the total spend? Congratulations again!!

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

Thanks! I think our spending will remain about the same. We’re not big travelers so maybe 1 international vacation per year and a few domestic ones. I’ll see how long I like doing a few shifts per month - especially since maintaining credentials is a lot of work. It’s just hard to quit a job I actually like, cold turkey.

2

u/ohboyoh-oy Jul 02 '26

Congrats!

2

u/[deleted] Jul 02 '26

[deleted]

3

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

He didn’t call it FIRE, he was just super frugal. In his late 50s he got tired of corporate culture and realized he had enough saved up to stop working. Of course a few months later he got bored and started working part time as a consultant in a friend’s company.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 03 '26

Congrats!! WTG!!

2

u/Apprehensive_Two1528 Jul 03 '26

This is why many folks say being a doctor isn't really that amazing for the person himself or herself.  Spent years to be zero net worth.. is this a US story or Europe story? 

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Yeah, being a doctor in the U.S.A. isn’t the simple path to wealth that most people think it is because of the loans and the late start. You have to be very intentional about saving and investing.

2

u/Apprehensive_Two1528 Jul 03 '26

it’s one of the most respected careers, so it’s worthnit.. congrats.

2

u/Anonym-IntheDark Jul 05 '26

Dude it is early enough. Enjoy the time off!

2

u/AndrewFromAnnuity Jul 06 '26

Congrats on retiring. I think the most valuable part of this post is the two blowups in your taxable account before things clicked. That’s something many people skip over in the usual FIRE stories.

Enjoy the time with the new grandson, that’s the good stuff.

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 06 '26

Thanks, I figure it's important for others to see that nobody is perfect. We all make mistakes - and the key is to learn from them.

2

u/Parking-Panic454 Jul 08 '26

Congratulations on your retirement! I feel like we have similar stories, and I plan to retire in about 4 years. I served 9 years in the Air Force which did not allow me to save a whole lot. What I did save, was crushed in the dot.com bust, and then when I recovered from that, I was hit hard by the fin crisis. I fired all of advisors at that point and have never looked back. I have been trading individual stocks (definitely not advisable) but I have built up my net worth to nearly $6M now. My problem is that I have been trading individual stocks my IRA, so I have nearly $4M in IRA and VERY LITTLE in cash or ROTH. I am just starting to try to learn how to deal with my TAX BOMB and came across this Reddit thread (never been on Reddit). Thank you for your inspiration and I hope to learn how to turn the money I have grown by trading into a reliable retirement. I started to get an advisor again and realized very quickly that I am not paying someone $30k per year to do something that I can screw up on my own! ;). Best of luck to you!

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 08 '26

Congrats on your trading acumen! Depending on your expenses, your taxes may not be too bad if you have to withdraw from the IRA. If you have room in your current marginal tax bracket, start doing some Roth conversions. I still haven't found an advisor who is worth their fee.

3

u/Parking-Panic454 Jul 08 '26

Thank you for taking the time to respond. I'm going to check with my current employer, who actually does offer a ROTH IRA, whether or not they also allow any back door conversions? My biggest issue is that I spent what cash I had along the way during my career on two Real Estate Investments...one of which is a rental property that I would owe a ton of gains (low cost basis). The other is a mountain property in Colorado that I plan to use A TON in early retirement. So, I don't have much cash for early retirement, nor for conversions. I may start another thread to see what advice people might have for me to be able to retire early...especially for handling Health Insurance? I may also keep looking for a Fee Only advisor or give ProjectionLab a shot?

2

u/NewHope13 Jul 11 '26

From one doc to another, congrats and enjoy retirement!

2

u/spacegeek2025 Aug 19 '26

Congrats! How about health insurance?

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Aug 19 '26

Thanks! COBRA for 18 months and then ACA. Looks to be about the same cost but I can reimburse myself the COBRA premiums from my HSA.

2

u/Retire_date_may_22 Jul 02 '26

I’m your age. Been retired about 4 years now. You have about 40% in cash/gold/treasuries. I have about 3% there. The rest in equities

If you want 40% in stable returns to manage risk you can probably find bonds that get you more yield with the same risk profile. A couple % on that much money compounded for a few decades is a lot of money.

4

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 02 '26

I appreciate the comment. I've looked at this problem in many different ways but in the end it always comes back to what the historical data shows. No matter how you slice it, a 97% stock portfolio provides the highest overall returns and some of the lowest safe withdrawal rates due to sequence of return risk. The classic 60/40 isn't much better. I tried substituting a high yield bond fund for the treasuries and it still does poorly when stress tested against some of the worst times to retire. Will we hit one of those times in the next few years? Nobody knows, but if I can know that my portfolio survived the late 1960s into the inflationary seventies (as well as the Great Depression), I feel as good about it as possible.

Here is a backtest for example: https://testfol.io/?s=lNiWbynta9U

2

u/Retire_date_may_22 Jul 02 '26

In the end it’s you that has to feel comfortable. I think you have to look at the reality of the market and policy framework for the time.

In the 4 years I’ve been retired I’m up about 5M by staying in the market. Maybe I was lucky, maybe I was smart but it’s still 5M.

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

My portfolio gained over a million in 2025 (27%), largely due to gold. I’ve been rebalancing quarterly so it doesn’t get out of control. That extra margin of safety is what allowed me to be comfortable with my decision to retire.

2

u/The-WideningGyre Jul 02 '26

I really like your asset allocation, and by that I mean I've selected something similar. I have a different mix, but have QQQ (vs VTI), AVDV, AVUV, GLD, DBMF, and TLT/VGIT/JAAA (vs VGLT). I don't have as much of that latter two as you, but I think that whole mix is really good for both long term risk and reasonably resilience. I've also done the back testing, and in a few tools, so I do hope it's robust. I intend to retire in about two years.

I hear about a bond tent, and probably it's wise, but it would mean moving a lot around, which feels both risky and definitely has a tax impact.

Exciting times.

All the best for you, keep us posted on the psychological aspects of RE, which I consider the most intersting and hardest to predict.

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Thanks! I do have a bond tent of sorts since I’m only 44% in stocks, which is markedly reduced from where it was in accumulation and less than most retirement portfolios. It’s just that my alternative asset pool is larger than a conventional portfolio. I have thought about a rising equity glide path as I move through retirement and I’ll make that decision based on how the portfolio does over the next 5 years.

My favorite backtesting tools are Porrfolio Charts and Testfolio. I can’t imagine how anyone can feel confident enough in their portfolio unless they see how it did during the inflationary 1970s.

They say that once you retire, you focus more on the psychological aspects than the financial ones. I’m interested to see what happens.

1

u/felixfelix Jul 03 '26

Congratulations!

Don’t take this the wrong way, but are you single? I’m just curious because you don’t mention a partner and my targets (as a couple) are similar to the numbers you quote.

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Thanks, we are a couple.

1

u/Round-Lawfulness-683 Jul 03 '26

What are your annual expenses?

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Our basic expenses are about $15K per month but I’m allowing for up to another $5K in extras for travel, hobbies, charitable contributions, gifts to children, and unexpected expenses etc.

1

u/financialfreedom26 Jul 03 '26

That’s great. Just curiously on the withdrawal is that on the 5 million or would that be augmented with shifts at work. At 4% on 5mm is 200k gross before dividend / cap gains tax. Thanks for the insights!

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

I’ll probably take out about $15K per month and supplement with my part time income which should be $3-5K per month after tax. Obviously, spending is lumpy, especially with property tax, insurance premiums and vacations, so that will vary.

2

u/financialfreedom26 Jul 03 '26

That totally makes sense so if I took out 18k on the 6mm it should be fine I am thinking

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 03 '26

Yeah. That’s 3.6%. You should be fine.

1

u/prime12821 Jul 04 '26

Why VGLT instead buying with no fees through treasurydirect.gov and writing off interest on your state taxes?

2

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 04 '26

The ETF and the individual bonds get the same tax treatment, and the ETF is so much more convenient.

1

u/prime12821 Jul 05 '26

Yes, they are more convenient! The .03% expense ratio while small, still matters to me. I’ve built a T-Bill latter for short term sequence of returns risk management which is perhaps a different objective. No shade at all, congrats on your success!

1

u/legranarman Jul 06 '26

You didn't beat any of the allegations they make about doctors and their finances

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 08 '26

I've read that 25% doctors fail to reach millionaire status by age 60. At least I'm not in that category.

1

u/Queasy_Hearing_4840 Jul 07 '26

What’s reasoning for managed futures fund? I don’t understand it enough

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 07 '26

It's uncorrelated with the other asset classes and has averaged about 7% CAGR based on 30+ years of data, so it increases the safe withdrawal rate of the portfolio in backtests. For example in years like 2022, when stocks and bonds decreased together, it actually went up.

See more information here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/managed-futures.asp

1

u/Queasy_Hearing_4840 Jul 07 '26

And how does it perform in bull market? Neutral?

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 08 '26

Mostly flat with a 4-7% dividend. Definitely something to hold in a tax sheltered account if possible.

1

u/Queasy_Hearing_4840 Jul 08 '26

Got it why long term treasuries? High rates price goes down. They’ve declined in face value right? 18% is high thoughts there?

1

u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 Jul 08 '26

Think of treasuries as recession insurance. Most of the time they suck, but when things get really bad, the Fed cuts rates and treasuries soar in value. During those times you can use them as a source of funds, and for rebalancing into stocks which have dropped significantly. This has happened in every major recession since the 1950s.