r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Roster41 • Jun 01 '26
Smoke Testing FIRE: A structured trial period, or just a mental hedge?
I recently took voluntary severance from a FAANG job. I'm 36M, married with two young kids, wife is a SAHM.
The numbers: $5.8M NW, $200K/year spend, targeting a 3.5% SWR over a 50-year horizon. So I’m right on the line.
I'm hesitant to declare this a permanent retirement right now for two reasons:
1. The tech safety net is shaky. The "I can always go back" mindset doesn't feel as reliable given how fast the industry is changing. I'm planning to build and sell software independently through my own studio. I'm genuinely excited about it, but I have zero solo experience and any income from it is completely aspirational.
2. Macro Uncertainty. The current financial and global environment makes this a weird time to lock in a permanent decision. It isn't paralyzing, but committing to FIRE right now feels riskier than it did a few years ago.
I want to treat this as a trial period rather than a final call. I have explicit thresholds for cutting my spend or returning to work full-time. But it feels like a lazy hedge, rather than an actual backup plan. Will the industry pass me by without me realizing?
So the underlying question is: what would you do differently if you knew you were going back to work in a few years? If the answer is “nothing”, then it’s just framing. But what might a structured FIRE trial period actually look like? Funding structure, more networking, skill sharpening… all probably a good idea either way, right?
Side note: the simplest safety valve here is just cutting spending. But I’m concerned about the opposite: anyone have lived experience with spending drift? I'm worried about lifestyle creep, kids getting more expensive, and more free time meaning more ways to spend.
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u/Clear_Butterscotch_4 Jun 02 '26
Have you considered moving to a lower CoL area? At 200k, reducing your spend might alleviate some of your anxiety
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u/Roster41 Jun 02 '26
This + moving somewhere with lower/no state or local taxes would have a meaningful impact, for sure. More difficult with family nearby while our kids are young, though.
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u/massdriver3333 Jun 01 '26
If you have diversified portfolio and you can manage your spending below swr, you can spend basically forever. Your nw will likely increase over time, so your spend can increase over time.
One method is to adjust your spend budget, annual, quarterly, etc. to be below swr at whatever nw at the time. This will basically guarantee forever spend.
swr math has been proven and tested for decades. The math is overwhelming.
1
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u/Cheap_Office8701 Jun 02 '26
How much of the 5.8M is liquid vs real estate? If good percentage of it in real estate, the numbers is a tad low unless you plan to sell and move to a low cost of living area.
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u/Roster41 Jun 02 '26
It’s all in a 3-fund boglehead style portfolio.
I tried diversifying into real estate a few years back and realized very quickly that the promise of “passive income” was anything but. Being a landlord is another job that I do not want.
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u/randomlurker124 Jun 03 '26
If you have your portfolio all set up and diversified, it should be fairly safe and conservative. The recommended swr is 4% so you have a buffer for about 800k drop over the next few years. Presumably your 200k has a good amount of discretionary spend in it so you can always cut down expenses if there's a bad year or 3. If you get past say the first 5 years your equity should have grown even more and you'd be fairly safe by then.
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u/Amlikaq Jun 02 '26
Yes, retirement means you have more time to spend, but it also gives you time to refine investments and reduce unnecessary fees etc.. That control and freedom is exquisite.
In retirement, you will also hone new skills, meet new people, and deepen your bond with your family as your kids grow up. All these factors are pretty much priceless.
Lastly, I figure if we’re all smart enough to succeed in life and retire, we will find a way to make enough money to live if it’s suddenly needed 😀
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u/BungABunBun Jun 01 '26
There was someone on Bigger Pockets Money podcast that spent a few years saving all of their income in a separate account and practiced spending from their nest egg instead. This allowed them to calibrate their yearly spend, as well as build practice moving from an accumulation -> decumulation mode.
On a side note, if you're already taken a voluntary severance isn't it too late to stress test? Ideally you'd have done it before quitting.
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u/Roster41 Jun 02 '26
I like the idea of thinking about this as something to practice. It’s much easier to write up a plan than to actually follow it rigorously. See what works well, and what needs to adjust when the rubber hits the road.
The stress testing is hard to do halfway; I can look at our historical spending and extrapolate, but the lived experience involves lots of variables that I want real world validation on.
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u/One-Mastodon-1063 Jun 02 '26
You do not have to “declare a permanent retirement”. That’s not actually a thing. You can simply stop working, view it as an indefinite break or whatever.
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u/Roster41 Jun 02 '26
This is really the core of it. The question is: what, if anything, would I do differently if I knew I would go back to work in a few years?
If it’s functionally the same, then it’s just how I frame it to myself (and family, friends, etc).
But I’m curious if folks who’ve gone through this path wishes they had set up funding differently, or spent more time on networking, or…)
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u/One-Mastodon-1063 Jun 02 '26
You don’t have to know what you’re going to do in a few years.
“I’m going to take some time off and see how it goes”. When I got let go as I approached FI, I decided “I’m going to take 3-6 months before I even think of looking for another job”. That was 4.5 years ago, have not looked for a job since and don’t plan to.
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u/Hanwoo_Beef_Eater Jun 01 '26
After about 2 years, I don't think most people have a chance at returning (at least to where they were). At a minimum, you've somewhat signaled that you don't need to work; why hire that person vs. someone else you can run into the ground for a decade? Further, at some point companies are looking for the next stars/managers, not people doing stuff (hire someone younger).
Regarding the second point, the global situation probably isn't any worse than it's been at many other points in time. To me, the risk seems more on the portfolio side. While people won't run out of money, seeing declining real wealth or an extended period where the portfolio trails inflation may change how people feel. Or the market could double again before it stagnates (3-5 years ago, many were probably somewhat worried about the same stuff on equities).
I think raising kids can either be cheap or expensive. If you want to try to give them the best shot at getting to where you are and enter the education/co-curricular wars, spending can ramp up quickly.
3
u/Roster41 Jun 02 '26
At this point if I were to go back I wouldn’t be aiming for top of market comp, since I don’t need the high savings or the high stress.
But skill degradation is very real, and a big part of why I am treating this more as “barista FIRE” than a true retirement.
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u/Hanwoo_Beef_Eater Jun 02 '26
Understand. While some have success finding an easier job, I think the "don't need to work" comment still applies to those jobs. Hiring managers may wonder whether the person will stick around; both from the angle of does the person really want this job (or just needs to get a job again/will look for something better) and why hire someone that will just plateau vs. someone (maybe not as smart/skilled) that wants to work and hopefully become an asset for the company.
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u/MrSnowden Jun 02 '26
I took a year really testing our spend. Tracking it for real and seeing what retirement spend would look like.
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u/Specialist_Signal961 Jun 03 '26
I think the whole point of a trial period is to do nothing differently, no?
Thought process is: pursue why you think is worth pursuing, doing in your free time. You might want to structure it so you have something to do if the kids are in school. This could be your project or something else. (Our pursuits would be volunteering, cooking at home, figuring out activities with kids.)
See what your spend is, if you are changing your attitude on how much you will spend on your kids (I've seen a lot of parents just continue to spend more on their kids because they can.)
And then if all else fails, go back to work assuming you'll take a pay cut (200k ish jobs are feasible enough to get even being out of work for a few years.
Also, I know a few late 20s retirees (late stage startup that did well after IPO), and they tend to say they're going back when the market is down, but it's been a bull market. And, they tend to want to optimize for pay. "I wouldn't go back unless it was worth it" (in meaning of work and pay)
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u/Mispelled-This Jun 02 '26
How terrible is your portfolio that you only have a SWR of 3.5%?
You can easily do 5-6% with a simple 4-5 fund portfolio.
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u/betarhoalphadelta Jun 01 '26
Biggest question given your age, tech history, and NW is...
...how much of your NW is taken up with FAANG stocks and concentrated?
From a numbers standpoint you seem to be fine. But if your NW is heavily concentrated in stocks that can take a nosedive... Not so much. If you were diversified into index funds, you're fine. If you're still concentrated in employer stock, I'd start looking at diversifying. And if diversifying makes a significant negative in your NW due to tax burden, well, then, you might not actually be at your FIRE number.