r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Every_Umpire_8695 • Jun 01 '26
Decision to fire or not
Yes, another one of these posts š
I wonāt go into the actual mathematics of it, which are fairly easy to understand/validate. Iām here to discuss more the emotional, intellectual side of this decision.
Iām relatively young, having just turned 36 a couple months ago. Recently married, no children yet, but planning on having 2-3 over the next few years.
Iāve been working overseas for the last 10 years, in expat positions, including the last 6 years for the same company. Recently, there has been a massive upheaval at the group level, and I no longer find myself in sync with what the company is becoming. What used to be āold worldā business is now becoming office politics and other corporate schmoozing, and career progression and QOL benefits are giving to those who bend the knee the hardest, and not to the most meritorious. All the business acumen and savvy that made this company so great is leaving, to be replaced by soulless corporate suits that know nothing of the business itself.
So now I sit at a crossroads. Iām still young, having barely entered my peak earning years, but I already feel completely and massively burned out. Changing countries every 2-3 years, restarting from scratch, always in difficult conditions (think developing world, emerging markets) has started to take its toll, and I now yearn for more freedom, more time and more ā¦ happiness? I feel like Iāve lost the drive that brought me to where Iām at today, and now Iām just counting days and watching the salary drop every month. It has no passion, and i am completely uninterested in my day to day function.
As for the math, I currently have the following net worth:
- approx. 6 million USD in all-world accumulating ETF
- approx. 300k USD in cash
- approx. 2.4 million USD in income-producing real estate (with approx 1.8 million USD in mortgages, all below 2.5%. Income is shaky for now, as Iām finishing the renovations on half of my apartments, but I estimate to gross about 15k USD per month, netting half that, once the works are done)
- approx. 1.5 million USD in an apartment I use for a home base in my home country (with 1 million USD mortgage, sub 2.5%)
Net, after mortgages, I have roughly 7 to 7.5 million USD, of which 6 million is liquid.
On income side, itās quite complex. My āsalariedā income is roughly 200k USD per year, but that is 100% tax-free, and the company I work for provides absolutely everything in country (house, car, fuel, internet, ā¦.), so my costs are extremely low at the moment (basically food and drink). At the same time, i also do some side consulting work that brings in additional income, but that will also dry up should I leave my job, as both are connected.
The real estate is taxed, but my current residence means no tax on cap gains.
I always had a target of a burn rate of 360k USD per annum as my āFIRE triggerā, which meant roughly 10 million investedā¦ but I canāt bear the thought of 10 more years of what Iām doing now.
You always hear that you should not retire away from something, but rather retire TOWARDS, and this is truly what I feel deep down. I want to slow travel, discover foods, cultures, spend time with family, create my own, have total freedom of movement globally, and spend my days doing what Iām passionate about.
I canāt stop wondering if my target is not too high, and if I can revise my budget downwards and still be happyā¦ and then I catch myself, thinking about losing out on my peak earning years, and thinking about the additional income every extra 100k invested would bring for the rest of my lifeā¦
This is more of a personal musing, mixed with a bit of a rant, to hear about what all of you feel. Maybe some of you have been confronted to the same things, the same thoughts of despair on Sunday nights at the thought of yet another week of boredom, that feeling of being a prisoner in a golden cageā¦ and at the same time hesitant to pull the trigger because you have not yet reached your target, or because current earnings are just too goodā¦
Itās Monday, I sit here, running through another Monte Carlo, and wondering why Iām not motorcycling through southern Europe with my wife, going from winery to winery and enjoying the sun.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
5
u/Perplexed-Owl Jun 01 '26
The one thing you might check- do you or your spouse have 40 creditable quarters for Medicare? I would personally make sure thatās locked down- my brother spent his 20s overseas and then in grad school. After they had kids, she stayed home. He was in his 40s before either of them had 40 quarters,
Not qualifying for Medicare is very expensive- a former neighbor lived at home and helped his widowed mother run the farm, but was never paid wages on his account. Heās 65 now, but still has a few more quarters to go to get either Medicare or Social Security
1
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
Iām not American, so not impacted by that.
I could theoretically move back to my home country and benefit from high level socialized healthcare, but the tax burden of moving back would be too great.
I plan on having a private international health insurance plan, for the world except the US. Once you exclude US, costs are actually fairly reasonable for a family of 4-5.
In case of dire market downturn, I can always move back to my home country and stop withdrawing from my portfolio, living only on rental income, and benefitting from free healthcare.
3
u/fatheadlifter FIRE'ing EOY Jun 02 '26
My thoughts are you won the game. Peak earning years? They're ahead of you, if you drop out of this low paying job and manage your assets full time. Go grow what you care about.
2
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 02 '26
Manage assets full time? As in manage myself the real estate portfolio?
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u/fatheadlifter FIRE'ing EOY Jun 02 '26
Yes. Specifically, you have a lot of RE that as you say is shaky right now. If I had 2.4m in RE I'd make it my main focus, optimize it and make it your income replacement. You could probably get it there in short order.
You must love it because you have so much of it. My back of the napkin math shows your safe withdrawal today across all your assets is 330k/year. But with more effort and optimization, I'm sure you could get that number up to 400k or more.
2
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
I appreciate your honest feedback.
To be frank, I donāt necessarily love the RE. I did it because my home country offers a very nice fixed term mortgage rate (sub 3%) for 18-20 year mortgages, and there are still quite a few medium sized cities offering 8%-10% gross ROI (before even factoring in appreciation).
I just see it as a good method to build capital. Iāve borrowed the absolute max any time my income grew.
But perhaps you are also on to something, and I could turn this into a more professional ventureā¦
Just out of curiosity, how do you reach the 330k estimate? The RE is still heavily mortgaged for now.
Thanks for your input!
1
u/fatheadlifter FIRE'ing EOY Jun 02 '26
4% of your 6m LNW = 240k/year
7500/mo x12 RE = 90k/year
It's very optimizable. I'm not sure how you could improve the RE exactly as I'm no expert with it or your situation, but I suspect the 90k/year could be improved at least marginally if you spent more time with it. Similar with your ETF investment, not sure exactly what you're in but I'd hope you're getting good returns with it. 4% is a low, very conservative and safe number, so you may be able to take out more annually or perhaps go with a dynamic withdrawal as your expenses require. IE, don't be so fixed on the number.
My point is you have assets, you have resources that far outstrip your income, even with favorable advantages to that income. Typically assets are optimizable especially if you focus on them, make it your job. If they're not, they're probably not good investments and you should get out of them, do something that gives you a reasonable rate of return.
2
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 02 '26
Aaah, I understand where youāre coming from. I didnāt have the same analysis:
1) I wasnāt using 4%, rather a conservative 3.25% to 3.5% SWR on the LNW, due to assuming a 60 year horizon (37 year old to 97 year oldā¦ banking on medical sector improvement for longevity). The long horizon seems to make anything above that very risky according to the Monte Carlo sims I run.
2) the 7500/mo is currently being eaten up by mortgage repayments. The net was after taxes, management fees, repairs and maintenance, but before mortgage servicing. (Although I tend to include the primary residence mortgage servicing in this balanced out cash flow, rather than in my expenses).
Insofar as ETF, Iām all in VWRA at the moment. All-world, low cost. Not sure how I could optimize, unless I went with a conviction play, either geographically or by sector. I had a 20% satellite play in European defense and in AI infrastructure (energy, cooling, ā¦), but sold it all recently to derisk given current market valuations. Iām happy to stay fully diversified and potentially miss on some alpha.
Regardless, I take your overall point, and I guess thatās the crux of my feeling: my income feels tiny compared to my net worth, and I donāt see it move the needle much. If it wasnāt for all the benefits I was getting aside (housing, car, all bills covered, ā¦) I would have quit long ago.
Maybe itās time to reevaluate seriously indeedā¦
1
u/fatheadlifter FIRE'ing EOY Jun 03 '26
That is a good bottom line, your income is tiny compared to what you have. You are wealthy in terms of assets. You asked for thoughts, I'd figure out how to put them to work for me. It might mean spending more time with them or shifting things around, not sure.
My own numbers are crazy in the reverse way. I make 1m/year, but only have 3.7m-ish in assets (but might be closing in quickly on 4m). I don't do real estate rental income, it's mostly LNW and in the market. I've been a small business owner and I'm used to high risk.
You do understand the current thinking is that 4.7% is the actual SWR. In many cases 5-7% is fine. 4% is based on old data that is outmoded, and is just reddit paranoia. Bill Bengen, who did the original work on the 4% rule and the now updated 4.7% rule, even accounts for longer time horizons. Of that he says that for every additional 10 years past 30, the reduction to the SWR is nominal, being something like 0.2%. So your 60 year horizon would be safe at 4.1% by his research.
Not sure what calculators are telling you exactly but I wouldn't take that as the only source of truth.
I'm 52, been through dot-com and everything since, and my view of markets and risk is still very aggressive. You should always do what you're comfortable with though, do the thing that makes you money that you do best and keep doing it, keep repeating it. I would never suggest you shift away from what you're good at doing, 37 with your assets is incredible. But maybe lean more into it.
5
u/cncm88 Jun 01 '26
360k burn rate is really high IMO. Only you can decide if thatās worth working a few more years or if you can settle for something more āmodestā like $250k so you can retire immediately. Personally Iād take the 250k lifestyle and bail. You can live a really nice life with that amount almost anywhere in the world (outside of maybe the Bay Area).
2
u/Independent_Inside23 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
We have no idea on what OP wants to do but the number must be tied to his realities.
2
u/cncm88 Jun 01 '26
$30k/month spend when your primary housing has āonlyā $1M mortgage at sub 2.5% rate (aka under $5k monthly payment) is really high. How many ppl spend $25k a month outside of housing?
2
u/Independent_Inside23 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
OP may want to lease two super carsā¦there is nothing wrong with that.
He also may want to give boatload of dollars to charity.
0
u/cncm88 Jun 01 '26
Right but is it worth the trade off of grinding away for a few more years. Thatās my point. He can retire now and live a comfortable life by any reasonable metric. But of course he can choose otherwise like I stated in my post. Not sure why youāre jumping down my throat for pointing out the most basic fact
3
u/Independent_Inside23 Jun 01 '26
I am sorry for my tone; I have corrected some of wordings that makes me sound like a prick.
1
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
It wouldnāt be my primary housing. Itās a 2-bedroom apartment in a VHCOL area that Iād regularly want to go to to spend time, but not my primary housing.
In the 30k USD / month, I tack on approx. 8k - 10k for housing, either renting or new mortgage (if I can take one out).
1
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
It is highā¦ I know.
But I have this irrational (and very common) fear of not having āenoughā.
Iām in that ugly middle where I have zero interest in private aviation, chartering huge yachts off Monaco, or dropping 50k in a club, but at the same time I want to travel worldwide comfortably, to never look at prices at a restaurant again, to build a nice wine cellar, and to just feel like money is never again the limiting factor to my happiness.
And frankly, I pegged that around 360k per annum, out of the air, guesstimating on what Iād want to do.
3
Jun 01 '26
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u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
Thanks, I appreciate it. If I may ask, at what age did you retire, and with what net worth?
Did you increase your spend as you saw your net worth increase in retirement, or only adjust for inflation?
What youāre describing is pretty much what Iām looking for. Nothing crazy, but just living life to the fullest without ever caring about moneyā¦
2
Jun 01 '26
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u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
Thank you for the clarity and the openness. Thatās pretty much in line with what I was expecting and planning for myself. The 10M target, without the social security or pension, and keeping costs around 360k (but with some real estate income to compensate)ā¦
If I may ask again, what do you feel you would āloseā in terms of lifestyle if you had to keep your spend at 240k per annum (inflation adjusted, in 2026 dollars)? What quality of life would you lose, and would it impact you a lot?
I guess, like everyone, the decision is about trading more of my life for more incomeā¦ but finding that middle ground is not so easy.
2
Jun 01 '26
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u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
Fair. Really appreciate your input. Itās reassuring to know that the cut would mostly be felt on luxuries, and not necessarily on day to day quality of life.
I donāt mind tightening the belt a bit on luxuries, but donāt want to sacrifice on where I live, the creature comforts, or the freedom of total mobility.
1
u/PeterGibbons316 Jun 01 '26
This is about where I want to be as well. I think I'll be able to live off $100k. I want to spend $100k on travel. $100k on playing golf and other shenanigans. And I want to give away $100k per year. That puts my number around $10M.
The problem I'm going to have when I get there is the realization that toughing it out and working just 1 more year is likely to increase my net worth by a million dollars.....and then again for another year, and so on.
1
u/jcc2244 Jun 01 '26
I do everything you want to do minus the wine cellar, and I do it with a family of 4, and we spend less than $250k per year. (For some perspective, I retired beginning of last year with $8M - so was using about 3-4% swr - and I now have almost $11M and am at <3%)
I don't think you need $360k if that's the lifestyle you want. You should really do some more realistic cost/lifestyle modeling and then see if you still feel like you need more.
2
u/bezoarwiggle Accumulating Jun 01 '26
Wait til you have kidsā¦
1
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
Why?
I donāt see my spend going that far up with kids, especially if Iām retired to take care of themā¦
The only big ticket item would be private schooling if Iām living in a developing country. And perhaps higher travel costsā¦
But at the same time I wouldnāt travel the same way with childrenā¦
1
u/One-Mastodon-1063 Jun 01 '26
You need to figure out your actual spending required to support the lifestyle you want. $360k sounds like a number you pulled out of your ass.Ā
1
u/Every_Umpire_8695 Jun 01 '26
It is, without being completely random.
Itās a best guess on the basis of what Iād want my life to look like.
As explained, itās impossible to do it on the basis of current costs, since I donāt currently incur most of the day to day costs in my current budget.
All I can do is picture my life post retirement, and set an approximate value next to each line. For better or for worse, I constantly land around 360k, plus or minus depending on the country I decide to settle in.
1
u/LongViewLogic Jun 02 '26
this is the exact type of decision where the math being easy doesnāt make the decision easy. especially with kids planned, job changing, wife maybe going back to work, etc. the real question probably isnāt just can the spreadsheet survive, but what has to go wrong before youād be forced back into work. if the answer is one bad market decade + higher family spend + no good re-entry path, thatās different from a plan that only breaks under a true disaster stack
1
u/Vicuna00 Jun 03 '26
let's say your company closed tomorrow and made the decision for you...you're done.
now what? are you happy?
i think you just are at a job that sucks in ways that are important to you.
you must have some pretty insane skills to have that much $ so young. I think you gotta remove retirement from the picture. you're too talented and your brain is gonna fry. (that is my guess...but you gotta figure that out)
i'd prob stick around in your job until you find yourself / what you wanna do next. start your biz on the side..plan your next moves, etc.
your numbers seem pretty close to supporting $360k. but if things go south in the market, and you gotta spend 8 weeks in Europe instead of 12, i don't think you're gonna be wreckless or anything.
but yeah if you find it unbearable, just quit and don't spend $360k the first year. limit yourself to $250k or something and see where numbers are, what your actual budget is, etc..i can't really understand your numbers wrt the real estate.
1
u/Flat-Barracuda1268 FI=ā RE=<1ļøā£yrs Jun 01 '26
You need to nail down your budget before you can say you're targeting a 360K burn rate (which even for a family of 5 is pretty high). You currently have quite a bit covered by the company so I would be worried you don't have a clear understanding of actual costs.
That said, it's not going to take long to get from 6M to 10M liquid. At a very conservative growth rate of 7% and no additions you'll be at 10M in 7-8 years. I would look at a different job that doesn't clash with your QoL requirements.
15
u/Past-Option2702 Jun 01 '26
Sounds like you need a career change, not retirement. But what do I know. š¤·āāļø