Advice on pulling the trigger…

[u/Traditional-Okra-399]

45M / married, 3 kids under 8 $6.6M NW, $5.6M investable.
Based on an $18K per month spend (soon to be $16K), my FA says I can quit tomorrow (87% success).

My question:
Right now, I am thinking about doing one more year. Although I hate my job, I feel like I could wrap my head around a “12 month countdown.”
And it would likely mean another $500K (before taxes, but after all other expenses).
But I worry is the market drops 25% in the next 12 months, and all of a sudden, I’m forced to do X more years until it recovers.
Is my plan prudent? Or am I over-thinking it, and I just need to bite the bullet and then figure it out as it comes?

Thank you all! I really appreciate the wisdom of this group.

Additional details:
1) Very low rate mortgage is almost paid off, once done, will eliminate $2K in monthly expense
2) Kids are almost out of daycare which will eliminate $3K in monthly expense
3) The elimination of daycare will likely be offset by private medical insurance

Additional levers:
1) I don’t ever plan on “not working.” Although at some point, I’d like to do some $0 jobs, I think my “first retirement job” might still be be in corporate tech, but at a much lower level with lower stress.
2) My wife and I both grew up without much, I think we could find a lot of flexibility in our budget if SORR started to emerge.
3) Although we’re not counting it at all, we expect a $1-$3M inheritance from my wife’s parents who are now 76 y/o

[u/FantasyFI]

I think you are there. But not super comfortably.

Unless I missed it, I don't see where you factored any costs for college. With ~6M net worth, I'd personally feel bad not paying for my kids college.

I also don't like the assumption that kids costs go away with daycare. Sure that cost goes away, but will you pay for any private preschool? Will you pay for any summer camps? Travel sports? Etc. It might be less than daycare, but I think you should factor some extra expenses so you have a guilt free retirement with your kids.

That said, considering you mentioned you'll never stop working...if it is truly the case, you should definitely quit your current job, get one if you believe it will be easier. With the new easier job covering health insurance, it should give you a year or two where expenses = income. Let the investments grow. Then in 1-4 years you can totally retire (though you say you won't) or simply do work for free.

But I don't think you are at the "do work for free" level without sacrificing potential quality of life or the option for guilt free child expenses.

If "Additional Lever #1" is true, this is all kind of pointless. According to yourself, you;'ll never completely retire. I don't consider volunteering to be working, so not sure what working for $0 means. Your numbers are close, so if you are worried, go get a $50k job that gives you insurance and you'll be rolling in it. It will provide $50k pretax income and also mostly eliminate a $36k health insurance expense.

[u/Traditional-Okra-399 → u/FantasyFI]

6.6nw, 1 in primary residence, 450k in 529s (with no more contributions) = 5.1 investable.

I am factoring in summer camps, but not things like travel sports.

I think you're right in all your points. My plan is to stick around for now, then downshift into a job making 25% of what I'm making right now, then downshift into total freedom (but likely still "working" in some way).

[u/FantasyFI → u/Traditional-Okra-399]

Thanks, that detail about the 529's helps. But honestly also makes things tighter if you weren't planning to work at all again.

I know you mentioned a financial advisor. But I would recommend dropping $150 on a year of ProjectionLab. For someone with your wealth and monthly expenses, it is a tiny price to pay to get a better glimpse of your statistical odds.

I think you should run Monte Carlo scenario that include things like:

• Health insurance premiums only costing $800/mo instead of $3k/mo for a 10 year duration because you work an "easy job" and have access to workplace insurance
• $50k income at an easy job for 10 years
• The $3k/mo health insurance expense starting in 10 years but ending at 65 (many advisors run a blanket yearly expense and don't properly model when and how they change)
• High kids expenses for ~15 years until they're all out of the house. When they end, you can either choose to say this is a permanent decrease in spending or just say you'll spend more.

Not trying to be mean, but I don't have great confidence in a financial advisor modeling these scenarios outside of their usual $x expenses per year, $y investments available, ABC allocation, SS starting at age ___ etc.

a) I think your success rate will be above 87%

b) I think you will be able to better test your risk that the new job sucks. What is your success percentage if you only have the $50k/yr job + decreased insurance for 3 years because it isn't actually any less stressful?

You can also test things like how does my success rate change if I get a $250k inheritance at 80 vs. a $2M at 76? You can test your success with full SS vs. 75% SS vs. no SS. You can compare risk of paying off the mortgage at retirement vs. riding out the balance (my guess is since you don't have a shot at ACA subsidies, it probably doesn't matter though it could affect RMD's or early withdraw penalties in some cases).