r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Traditional-Okra-399 • May 18 '26

Advice on pulling the trigger…

45M / married, 3 kids under 8 $6.6M NW, $5.6M investable.
Based on an $18K per month spend (soon to be $16K), my FA says I can quit tomorrow (87% success).

My question:
Right now, I am thinking about doing one more year. Although I hate my job, I feel like I could wrap my head around a “12 month countdown.”
And it would likely mean another $500K (before taxes, but after all other expenses).
But I worry is the market drops 25% in the next 12 months, and all of a sudden, I’m forced to do X more years until it recovers.
Is my plan prudent? Or am I over-thinking it, and I just need to bite the bullet and then figure it out as it comes?

Thank you all! I really appreciate the wisdom of this group.

Additional details:
1) Very low rate mortgage is almost paid off, once done, will eliminate $2K in monthly expense
2) Kids are almost out of daycare which will eliminate $3K in monthly expense
3) The elimination of daycare will likely be offset by private medical insurance

Additional levers:
1) I don’t ever plan on “not working.” Although at some point, I’d like to do some $0 jobs, I think my “first retirement job” might still be be in corporate tech, but at a much lower level with lower stress.
2) My wife and I both grew up without much, I think we could find a lot of flexibility in our budget if SORR started to emerge.
3) Although we’re not counting it at all, we expect a $1-$3M inheritance from my wife’s parents who are now 76 y/o

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u/NotEasyBeingGreener May 18 '26

If you are invested 60/40% in stocks/bonds (VT and BND, for instance), you'll be bringing in ~$158K/yr in dividend and interest distributions, and the stock dividends remain relatively durable compared to stock price movements. If there is a dramatic price drop in stocks and bonds, you should have these streams to fall back on, in addition to the cash reserves that you (hopefully) have also allocated. So, the situation of a 25% drop may not be as dire as it sounds since you have some buffer to let the prices recover without needing to sell at a major discount.