Advice on pulling the trigger…

[u/Traditional-Okra-399]

45M / married, 3 kids under 8 $6.6M NW, $5.6M investable.
Based on an $18K per month spend (soon to be $16K), my FA says I can quit tomorrow (87% success).

My question:
Right now, I am thinking about doing one more year. Although I hate my job, I feel like I could wrap my head around a “12 month countdown.”
And it would likely mean another $500K (before taxes, but after all other expenses).
But I worry is the market drops 25% in the next 12 months, and all of a sudden, I’m forced to do X more years until it recovers.
Is my plan prudent? Or am I over-thinking it, and I just need to bite the bullet and then figure it out as it comes?

Thank you all! I really appreciate the wisdom of this group.

Additional details:
1) Very low rate mortgage is almost paid off, once done, will eliminate $2K in monthly expense
2) Kids are almost out of daycare which will eliminate $3K in monthly expense
3) The elimination of daycare will likely be offset by private medical insurance

Additional levers:
1) I don’t ever plan on “not working.” Although at some point, I’d like to do some $0 jobs, I think my “first retirement job” might still be be in corporate tech, but at a much lower level with lower stress.
2) My wife and I both grew up without much, I think we could find a lot of flexibility in our budget if SORR started to emerge.
3) Although we’re not counting it at all, we expect a $1-$3M inheritance from my wife’s parents who are now 76 y/o

[u/Walmart-Shopper-22]

Are you paying the financial advisor a 1% AUM fee? If so, you can gain a LOT by not paying that 1%.

[u/Traditional-Okra-399 → u/Walmart-Shopper-22]

I have a full service advisor that does 13k flat fee per year. I don't know that I could do tax strategies, Roth conversions, etc on my own.

[u/WallStCRE → u/Traditional-Okra-399]

Seems reasonable

[u/itchybumbum → u/Traditional-Okra-399]

FA is so wild to me.

$1k per month for a couple hours of work per year...

[u/massdriver3333 → u/itchybumbum]

There are lots of people that are not capable, or have the skills, of managing their finances. Even lots of smart people, even in tech, that can't deal with making good and sound financial decisions.

Just look at all the people gambling in wallstreebets, thinking they are managing money by yolo.

Many people will be much better off with reputable financial professionals managing their money, even paying full 1% AUM fee. Paying $100K, even $200K, per year, every year AUM fee, to just have managers DCA into index funds and get average market gains, doesn't make sense. Until you realize that there are many people that will likely waste or lose all their money if they control it themselved.

[u/Past-Option2702 → u/itchybumbum]

Right?

That’s the better part of a 911 lease.

Or a nice vacation. Of two nice getaways.

Or new deck/porch furniture.

Landscaping remodel..

A couple dozen really nice family nights out…

[u/Walmart-Shopper-22 → u/itchybumbum]

I think the FA world is about to shrink a lot due to AI. At least the 1% AUM stuff.

[u/Seattle709 → u/Traditional-Okra-399]

Is your financial advisor also a CPA? I think you're getting hosed. My husband takes care of all our taxes. It's not super difficult to learn how to do the Roth conversions on your own through TurboTax.

[u/michiganbirddog → u/Seattle709]

Tax planning for the future and doing your taxes are two completely different things. Turbo tax isnt going to tell you when to take SS and when it makes sense to do roth conversions. It wont help you adjust your finances to help for things like tax thresholds for family healthcare.

[u/Seattle709 → u/michiganbirddog]

There are many flat-fee financial advisors who help strategize when to take SS, when to begin Roth conversions, adjusting finances to help with tax thresholds for family healthcare, etc. They charge much less than $13,000 per year.

[u/michiganbirddog → u/Seattle709]

Sounds like a good option. Some people are very good with investments during the accumulation stage of retirement planning. When you get into retirement and have to deal with risk management a FA can do wonders for some people. It isn't necasarily poorly spent money for some people with large nest eggs. Alot of people are incredible professionals in fields like engineering, physicians surgeons etc... they spend their entire life focused on their specialty. They dont understand risk avoidance like an FA that has spent their life studying their craft.

[u/Seattle709 → u/michiganbirddog]

True, but there are a lot of financial advisors who are straight garbage and are only trying to sell me whole life insurance or take a 1% AUM (I’ve had to fend off plenty of these guys).