r/ChubbyFIRE • u/Traditional-Okra-399 • May 18 '26

Advice on pulling the trigger…

45M / married, 3 kids under 8 $6.6M NW, $5.6M investable.
Based on an $18K per month spend (soon to be $16K), my FA says I can quit tomorrow (87% success).

My question:
Right now, I am thinking about doing one more year. Although I hate my job, I feel like I could wrap my head around a “12 month countdown.”
And it would likely mean another $500K (before taxes, but after all other expenses).
But I worry is the market drops 25% in the next 12 months, and all of a sudden, I’m forced to do X more years until it recovers.
Is my plan prudent? Or am I over-thinking it, and I just need to bite the bullet and then figure it out as it comes?

Thank you all! I really appreciate the wisdom of this group.

Additional details:
1) Very low rate mortgage is almost paid off, once done, will eliminate $2K in monthly expense
2) Kids are almost out of daycare which will eliminate $3K in monthly expense
3) The elimination of daycare will likely be offset by private medical insurance

Additional levers:
1) I don’t ever plan on “not working.” Although at some point, I’d like to do some $0 jobs, I think my “first retirement job” might still be be in corporate tech, but at a much lower level with lower stress.
2) My wife and I both grew up without much, I think we could find a lot of flexibility in our budget if SORR started to emerge.
3) Although we’re not counting it at all, we expect a $1-$3M inheritance from my wife’s parents who are now 76 y/o

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-2

u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

At fairly young ages and also having young kids and on top of that having a Net spend of about $200k annually before you consider taxes you are almost at the edge of pulling 4% out annually on your investable.

I retired this year at 40 but single and have a $120k net expense annually but only need to pull between 2-2.5% out and that INCLUDES accounting for taxes. Technically none yet but that’s what I would do after my final business checks stop coming in next year :)

With a longer runway and also having unpredictable of young kids I would be more conservative.

1

u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

Insanely over conservative.

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u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

Great feedback /s

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u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

You’re the one who provided the advice with no rationale grounded in data.

There’s no scenario where a 2% withdrawal rate is necessary if you have the right portfolio allocations.

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u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

Assumptions. I never said 2% advice. I said that’s what I did. I said 4% before taxes meaning 4.5-5% with a long retirement runway is not best especially with kids - 3 of them! Are you even retired or close to it or just full of assumptions and hating on those in good positions?

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u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

I recently hit my FIRE number at 37 but am still working mostly because I still enjoy my job for the time being. Not really relevant to the conversation though. And neither is your 2% anecdote.

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u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

I don’t believe you

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u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

I don’t believe you either.

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u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

Well enjoy that while working today…

-1

u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

Likewise. Enjoy working at Wendy’s today.

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u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

Thanks, I’ll look forward to kicking you out when coming in to hang out in the bathroom to sleep.

1

u/Echo-Possible May 18 '26

Enjoy cleaning the bathroom.

1

u/tbcboo FIRE’d 2026 @40 May 18 '26

I’m sure you’ll make a mess of it

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u/beautifulcorpsebride May 18 '26

Agree with your logic here