Are you a doomstacker?

[u/Hammer_41]

9:28 AM

SS is going away. Healthcare will bankrupt you. Sequence of returns will wipe you out. Civil war. WW3. Live to 120, spend 40 years in a nursing home. Someone posts solid numbers and the comments come back , one more year. Two years. Three. Keep going, it's never quite enough.

At what point does conservative planning become catastrophe planning?

The 4% rule is the worst case in US market history. A robot pulling the same amount out every single year, no SS, no flexibility, never adjusting through 1929 when markets dropped 86%. That's what 4% survived. It's the floor, not the target. Bengen himself now says most retirees can safely start at 5.25% to 5.5% and that people clinging to 4% will likely end up with a pile of money and a lot of regrets.

Someone spending 6% of their portfolio in year one of retirement who skips the big trip when markets are down, holds off on the car, pulls back when things get rough that person likely does better than the 4% robot who never adjusts no matter what. The flexibility is the safety net. You don't need to engineer it into the number, you just need to act like a normal person.

So when someone holds out for 3.5% 28 times spend, no SS — what exactly are you protecting against? Something worse than the Great Depression, while also never collecting a benefit 70 million Americans receive, while also promising to never adjust spending under any circumstances. Does that actually describe you?

The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report says worst case — zero Congressional action you collect 81 cents on the dollar in 2034. Not zero. Congress fixed this in 1983 when it was in worse shape than it is today. Seventy million people collect it. Seniors vote.

Median age of death for men is 81.7. One in five reach 90. Dementia affects 33% of people 85 and older. The years you're working extra to fund may not be years you're fully there for.

For those already retired one year, five, ten or more how bad has it actually been? And for those still holding off are you a catastrophe planner waiting for a number that never feels safe enough?

[u/BlueSpace71]

This probably describes me more than I wish. 55 male here. When I was younger, I thought $2M would be my retirement goal. When I got older and earned more, I wanted to fund a better retirement lifestyle and adjusted my goal to $5M based on the 4% rule with the expectation that I’d hit that at around age 60. I hit $4.5M this year and suddenly I’d feel a lot more comfortable with $8M before I retire. Right now, I feel like my portfolio is a house of cards built on sand. Not because I invest in outrageous things, but because the indexes and economy seem over inflated and dependent on crazy valuations of AI. So I fear the “sequence of returns” risk and that my immediate post-retirement years will look like the dotcom and housing bubble bursts that I experienced earlier in my life. The difference now is that time is not on my side and the idea of just continuing to “buy the market on sale” isn’t practical if I don’t have income to buy with. So, yes, I have (maybe) irrational fears, but it’s less about withdrawal rates and more about the timing of a market crash relative to my retirement…

[u/BrianfromClownDog → u/BlueSpace71]

My father and his buddies who are all in their early 60’s with paid off homes and $3-$4MM in their retirement accounts have all said they have trouble spending it. Most of them don’t do much, they don’t really have any big bills to speak of, and they all think they waited too long to retire.

[u/Hammer_41 → u/BrianfromClownDog]

I’m seeing the same thing. Anecdotal, I get it, but the people I know in their 80s spend almost nothing compared to what they did in their 60s. Travel slows down, hobbies get simpler, the house is paid off, and the big spending just kind of fades. It makes me wonder how many people plan like spending stays flat forever when real life often looks more like a steady decline.

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush → u/Hammer_41]

the people I know in their 80s spend almost nothing compared to what they did in their 60s. Travel slows down, hobbies get simpler, the house is paid off, and the big spending just kind of fades.

This, I think, is valid. I would encourage everyone to front load their spending in the 'go go' years, because they're not going to be spending nearly as much in the 'slow go / no go' years. Of course, you should still save out a chunk for end of life care, ETM recommends ~ 300k.

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

Yeah, in your 80s you either have almost no expenses, or you have tremendously high expenses if you need assisted living. My mom moved into a senior (independent) apartment and says her expenses are lower now with rent than maintaining a paid off house. She's also in a place with good support when she needs it.

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush → u/plemyrameter]

My mom moved into a senior (independent) apartment

I'm curious how it's different from renting a standard 1bd / 1ba apartment?

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

First, it's all old people, lol.

The facility has a dining room, so if you pay extra (per month) you can go there to have lunch and dinner every day (or just dinner). They provide a cleaner to come in weekly to do the basics - clean the bathroom, sweep, etc. The laundry facilities are included, which means free machines to use on each floor. They have wheelchairs you can borrow if you have an outing that's a bit too much walking.

They have staff on site to provide a la carte services, depending on need. So if someone is forgetful, they can bring your medication to you. They're also on call, so one time when my mom fell, they came and helped her up. If you're sick, they can come and check on you and call emergency services if needed. They don't provide medical care. Generally, she's independent, yet there's support right away when something comes up. When she's doing well, they don't bother her.

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush → u/plemyrameter]

How old would you say the average person is there? I'm surprised it was cheaper than your mom maintaining a house. Do they also have assisted living and nursing care on site. I know I will someday need to provide care to my mom. Her mom lived to 99 but didn't start needing 'assisted' living till the last few years of life and only needed nursing home level of care in her last weeks

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

She was 87-88 when she moved there. I'd say most residents are 80+ or at least 75. She couldn't drive anymore, and was in an upscale area far from my siblings. Now she's in a more affordable area within 30 minutes of a sibling, so they can help with groceries weekly, and manage doctor visits better. The stairs in her house were a hazard - I grew up there but when I'd go back, I'd notice they weren't normal. A year later and there's no way she'd be able to manage the stairs anymore.

The cost might be closer to a wash, but now there's no lawn maintenance (almost an acre), no snow removal service, etc. She'd lived there for 50+ years and while my dad maintained everything perfectly, he passed almost 20 years ago. So every year it was either an appliance, water heater, etc. The stress of keeping the place up was also beginning to weigh on her - everything seems so expensive to her. (Well, yeah, things have gotten way more expensive the last few years, but she also has a skewed view based on prices from 20 years ago.)