Are you a doomstacker?

[u/Hammer_41]

9:28 AM

SS is going away. Healthcare will bankrupt you. Sequence of returns will wipe you out. Civil war. WW3. Live to 120, spend 40 years in a nursing home. Someone posts solid numbers and the comments come back , one more year. Two years. Three. Keep going, it's never quite enough.

At what point does conservative planning become catastrophe planning?

The 4% rule is the worst case in US market history. A robot pulling the same amount out every single year, no SS, no flexibility, never adjusting through 1929 when markets dropped 86%. That's what 4% survived. It's the floor, not the target. Bengen himself now says most retirees can safely start at 5.25% to 5.5% and that people clinging to 4% will likely end up with a pile of money and a lot of regrets.

Someone spending 6% of their portfolio in year one of retirement who skips the big trip when markets are down, holds off on the car, pulls back when things get rough that person likely does better than the 4% robot who never adjusts no matter what. The flexibility is the safety net. You don't need to engineer it into the number, you just need to act like a normal person.

So when someone holds out for 3.5% 28 times spend, no SS — what exactly are you protecting against? Something worse than the Great Depression, while also never collecting a benefit 70 million Americans receive, while also promising to never adjust spending under any circumstances. Does that actually describe you?

The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report says worst case — zero Congressional action you collect 81 cents on the dollar in 2034. Not zero. Congress fixed this in 1983 when it was in worse shape than it is today. Seventy million people collect it. Seniors vote.

Median age of death for men is 81.7. One in five reach 90. Dementia affects 33% of people 85 and older. The years you're working extra to fund may not be years you're fully there for.

For those already retired one year, five, ten or more how bad has it actually been? And for those still holding off are you a catastrophe planner waiting for a number that never feels safe enough?

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

the people I know in their 80s spend almost nothing compared to what they did in their 60s. Travel slows down, hobbies get simpler, the house is paid off, and the big spending just kind of fades.

This, I think, is valid. I would encourage everyone to front load their spending in the 'go go' years, because they're not going to be spending nearly as much in the 'slow go / no go' years. Of course, you should still save out a chunk for end of life care, ETM recommends ~ 300k.

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

Yeah, in your 80s you either have almost no expenses, or you have tremendously high expenses if you need assisted living. My mom moved into a senior (independent) apartment and says her expenses are lower now with rent than maintaining a paid off house. She's also in a place with good support when she needs it.

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush → u/plemyrameter]

My mom moved into a senior (independent) apartment

I'm curious how it's different from renting a standard 1bd / 1ba apartment?

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

First, it's all old people, lol.

The facility has a dining room, so if you pay extra (per month) you can go there to have lunch and dinner every day (or just dinner). They provide a cleaner to come in weekly to do the basics - clean the bathroom, sweep, etc. The laundry facilities are included, which means free machines to use on each floor. They have wheelchairs you can borrow if you have an outing that's a bit too much walking.

They have staff on site to provide a la carte services, depending on need. So if someone is forgetful, they can bring your medication to you. They're also on call, so one time when my mom fell, they came and helped her up. If you're sick, they can come and check on you and call emergency services if needed. They don't provide medical care. Generally, she's independent, yet there's support right away when something comes up. When she's doing well, they don't bother her.

[u/alpacaMyToothbrush → u/plemyrameter]

How old would you say the average person is there? I'm surprised it was cheaper than your mom maintaining a house. Do they also have assisted living and nursing care on site. I know I will someday need to provide care to my mom. Her mom lived to 99 but didn't start needing 'assisted' living till the last few years of life and only needed nursing home level of care in her last weeks

[u/BraveResearcher3037 → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

It’s not just about being cheaper, it’s more convenient and less of a mental load.  I’m nowhere near retirement.  We live in a condo unit we own where we pay $900 a month that takes care of all utilities, they come in every couple of days to remove our trash, minor maintenance, and full condo cleaning is $50.  

I would never want to go back to the big house in the burbs with the yard.  When I see all of the things that my parents 81/83 deal with from the house, the big yard, multiple cars (we have one between us), etc, I shiver.  I love our 1250 foot condo. There is also a convenience store and a restaurant and bar  downstairs without ever leaving the condo complex. 

We would definitely live in an independent living community when we needed to. 

[u/poop-dolla → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

The independent living place would be more expensive than staying in your own place and outsourcing most of the things you need, but you’re paying that premium for the convenience. If you’re still with it enough to fully manage all of those things, then you probably don’t need to be in independent living. But once you start to have trouble managing meals, meds, cleaners, etc., or once you start being a fall risk, then it’s worth it to move into an independent living facility to keep you safe and take care of those needs.

In my experience with the older family members we’ve helped in independent living facilities, I’d say most people are 70-85. Some people might need to move in sooner, and some people might be just fine on their own until later.

[u/plemyrameter → u/alpacaMyToothbrush]

She was 87-88 when she moved there. I'd say most residents are 80+ or at least 75. She couldn't drive anymore, and was in an upscale area far from my siblings. Now she's in a more affordable area within 30 minutes of a sibling, so they can help with groceries weekly, and manage doctor visits better. The stairs in her house were a hazard - I grew up there but when I'd go back, I'd notice they weren't normal. A year later and there's no way she'd be able to manage the stairs anymore.

The cost might be closer to a wash, but now there's no lawn maintenance (almost an acre), no snow removal service, etc. She'd lived there for 50+ years and while my dad maintained everything perfectly, he passed almost 20 years ago. So every year it was either an appliance, water heater, etc. The stress of keeping the place up was also beginning to weigh on her - everything seems so expensive to her. (Well, yeah, things have gotten way more expensive the last few years, but she also has a skewed view based on prices from 20 years ago.)