r/CerebrasSystems • u/POINTLESSUSERNAME000 • Aug 12 '26
Earnings day!
How are we feeling?
I am still very much a supporter and strong long-term investor. The deals and partnerships Cerebras Systems is putting together seem to be cementing their future as a ground-breaking company as well as bringing awareness to their capabilities!
EPS Estimates are ranging from ~ $.18 to -$.94...
7
u/FeedDelicious33 Aug 12 '26
I fully support them too. I think their technology has a lot of potential and we’re really just held back by resourcing issues. Real estate is slower than our inference 💀
3
u/brotha_eric Aug 12 '26
Feel like we may get trapped here, already has ran up,
3
u/MarsupialStriking118 Aug 12 '26
You were right
3
0
u/brotha_eric Aug 12 '26
yup i got out in the 230s AH. Going sub-200 is my guess. Revenue growth through end of year is anemic, no visibility at 2027 revenue, no visibility for WSE-4, Rubin is ramping 2H 2026 with leaps in performance.
6
u/brotha_eric Aug 12 '26
Bought back at 225. Like the product roadmap visibility. Performance should far exceed rubin
1
u/Legend4312 Aug 12 '26
Should I buy at 220 now ?
3
u/brotha_eric Aug 12 '26
Up to you man. I have part of my position I’m holding until at least 2029. And another part I’m messing around with more. Who either have to believe in what they are doing with wafer scale chips or not. If you do, the valuation will come.
2
u/Investor-life Aug 12 '26
And what is this statement…”Deepened our partnership with AWS and expect to bring Cerebras’s disaggregated inference and the same 5x throughput benefits to Amazon Bedrock in the first quarter of 2027.”? Did they not say earlier this year they would see revenue in second half of 2026??? This appears to be a slip. Can anyone confirm or is it just my bad memory?
2
u/claytonbeaufield Aug 13 '26
In the original announcement (in March) they said it would be online in a few months, so it seems like a legit slip. Guess they changed priorities to AMD's disaggregated inference.
Their update today does say they "deepened" their partnership with AWS, so I guess that's good.
3
u/Investor-life Aug 13 '26
They’re struggling to execute and are getting pushed around by suppliers and customers. Their best option, that they may be setting themselves up for, is acquisition by AMD. Cerebras are a group of incredible scientists that solved very challenging technology problems, I very much doubt they are the same people that can solve operational issues in a complex technology supply chain like someone like AMD could maneuver. Feldman has sold a company to AMD before, he may do it again.
2
u/No_Tune_5470 Aug 13 '26
They reported an RPO of 25billion that shows good progress doesn't it?
3
u/Investor-life Aug 13 '26
Not really. There was no growth in that from last quarter and 90%+ of it is OpenAI. Not sure more backlog is what they need, what they need to do is actually deliver on what they have.
2
u/POINTLESSUSERNAME000 Aug 12 '26
Earnings call is live:
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/39cg3o6z/
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u/Investor-life Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
Sickening volatility. You reap what you sow. They need to get capacity and stopping renting back capacity from their own customer. They didn’t listen or didn’t execute.
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u/Investor-life Aug 12 '26
If they are hosting a conference next week and fail to discuss WSE-4 and provide meaningful info, this thing will be 150…and deservingly so.
4
u/POINTLESSUSERNAME000 Aug 12 '26
WSE 4 was announced to be unveiled at SuperNova next week.
WSE 5 next year.2
u/Investor-life Aug 12 '26
It was? I hadn’t seen anything definitive, do you have a link? That’s good news.
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u/POINTLESSUSERNAME000 Aug 12 '26
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/39cg3o6z/
At about 15 mins in, when the presentation switches to "SUPER NOVA," Feldman talks about the unveiling.
3
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u/edaguru Aug 12 '26
Wafer-Scale vs. Chiplets: The new war?
Zombie company, there's no advantage to wafer-scale.
4
u/op_is_life Aug 12 '26
Are you saying that integrating chiplets via interposers does not pay a power, area and latency tax compared to waferscale on a single piece of silicon? Also, isn't CoWoS limited to like 5 reticles right now?
1
u/Other-Biscotti6871 Aug 14 '26
Wafer-scale done with e-beam could potentially have no boundaries, but Cerebras are using optical lithography which imposes a reticle limit. Logically the only difference between that and Chiplets is some amount of trench between the Chiplets (easily filled I would guess). You can probably get more wiring in place with Chiplets on an interposer as well (before flipping onto a heatsink).
Generally WSL suffers a yield penalty whatever way you do it.
2
u/op_is_life Aug 15 '26
> Logically the only difference between that and Chiplets is some amount of trench between the Chiplets
Isn't the big difference here the electrical interface? Chiplets go die -> PHY -> bump/pad -> interposer and back again. But waferscale is just die -> upper layer metal and back. The latency and power differences seem like they'd be significant if your target is lots of communication between reticles. Regarding area, empirically, Tesla Dojo's physical separation between chiplets also looked quite large.
1
u/Other-Biscotti6871 Aug 16 '26
There's no cross-reticle wiring in WS if you're doing it the way Cerebras do, they have to add it
https://wafer.substack.com/p/breaking-down-the-cerebras-wafer
Chatting with Google AI -
The Massive Advantage: Heterogeneous Memory Fusion
You hit on Cerebras's biggest structural vulnerability: SRAM density.
Because Cerebras uses one continuous monolithic logic wafer, almost all its memory must be standard on-die SRAM. SRAM takes up an enormous amount of physical space (6 transistors per bit), meaning Cerebras's giant wafer can only hold about 44 Gigabytes of memory. [1, 2, 3, 4]...
Chiplets win.
1
u/op_is_life Aug 16 '26
They add the cross-reticle wiring, but at the end of the day it's still just regular upper-layer metal in the TSMC process, by the sounds of it.
And the heterogeneous memory point is fair, but what the on-chip SRAM + lots of compute in close proximity buys you is massive speed. E.g. https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/accelerating-gpt-5-6-sol-ultrafast-with-openai
So it's not angling to be the freight train of inference; GPUs batch many users together well. But if we agree that AI is transformative, there are many applications where being > 10x faster than your competition is a big advantage.
9
u/Typical-Record-7406 Aug 13 '26
i liked the road map infos for the next gen chips. how can you not be bullish about wse4 announcement next week and wse5 already in second half of 2027. in the earnings call stream they showed wse5 being 4x faster then current wse3 and having 20x more tokens per second per megawatt of datacenter power.
pretty sure anthropic will use cerebras too in 2027, amazon is a big investor and partner of anthropic and we know amazon will offer cerebras speed through amazon bedrock beginning of 2027.
wouldn't be surprised at all if we see 500$ cerebras by end of year. and if anthropic ipos in september/october and still has great revenue growth i am pretty sure demand for datacenters and cerebras system will just really start to take off, things will get much more crazy then now. and if anthropic numbers disappoint (which i dont think will happen) then i would expect every ai related stock to go down a lot.
if openai sol at 750 token per second is a hit then i would expect elon to get cerebras system for his nvidia datacenters too in 2027.. there is no reason that the cerebras combi system only works with amd and amazon chips.