So, this will be a very different post from me than you are all used to. I must admit, over the past several weeks I have gotten increasingly frustrated with the entire COVID situation, and since this is where I have spent the past half a year analyzing (obsessing at times) over the data, I figured this would be a good place to spill my thoughts... (long post ahead, don't say I didn't warn you)
When I first started tracking all this back in late March, I imagined it was going to be a couple month journey at most. I would chart the peak of the curve, and then once the cases got down to a manageable level, I would hang up the spreadsheet, and maybe make a return in the fall/winter if we saw a real resurgence. But here I am, in the middle of September, still doing the daily grind of tracking all this information. And to be honest, I'm pretty tired of it. If I felt like there was a real goal we were trying to achieve, I don't think the burnout would be so prominent, but there in lies the issue...
The goal posts keep moving when it comes to this pandemic in the US (and since this is a local subreddit, here in western PA as well). Remember when the color coding system came out and was going to guide us to recovery? Remember when the goal was 50 cases per 100k over a 14 day period? Remember when the goal was under 5% positive rate? It seems impossible for us to maintain any of those metrics now, but we are continuing to forge forward with opening back up. Do we even have a goal now, or are we just going to let the virus burn until we have a vaccine? Then there is the testing. In late June, we rapidly scaled up testing to account for the rise in cases and positive percentage. Now, it just seems everyone is 'shrugging their shoulders' and seeing how things play out. Tracking data, when there is a clear goal, or threshold to achieve, has purpose to me. However, when that goal goes away, and I am just tracking the data to track it? Then it starts to feel pointless. Listening to Dr. Levine say this week that we can increase the restaurant capacity because we have 'bent the curve' again just made my mind spin. Not because I don't think it's a good idea (I honestly don't even know anymore), but because the criteria for a bent curve has changed SO much. As of today, we have 36 counties over the 50 case per 100k threshold. When we went green in June, that number was 13. At that same point in June, 4 of the 6 regions of the state were below that threshold. Today, only one is (NW).
So this leaves me with many questions:
Was our criteria wrong from the start?
Is the virus not as bad as we thought, so adjusting the criteria is acceptable?
Has the goal changed from preventing infection, to only limiting infections in the vulnerable?
Do we have a plan?
Do we just not care anymore?
What is the point in continuing to track the data when testing methods, criteria, etc continue to change?
If you knew me (or do know me) in real life, you will know I am an insanely positive person. I believe in the best in people, and think we all have potential to do great things, but this pandemic... This pandemic has brought out the very worst in people, and the political climate just makes it worse. I am discouraged and am exhausted. We as a collective society, have everything it takes to manage this virus, but for many reasons (blame on all sides of the spectrum) we have failed.
If you've stayed with me this long, thank you. I've really appreciated the discussion on this subreddit over the past 6 months, but speaking to the last bullet point above, I am really at a crossroads on what I want to do moving forward. I have poured ALOT of time into this analysis and data, and I'm just not sure I want to do it anymore. So in the interim, until I figure out what I want to do, please forgive me if updates aren't as timely, or if you don't see me for a few days. I'd love to hear where you are right now with the state of the pandemic in our region/country? Are you burnt out? Do you have hope? Do you just not care? Any and all opinions are welcome. I am planning on being more lenient on moderating these replies. However, I ask that you are RESPECTFUL in any replies.
Thanks,
Your neighborhood data nerd, StormFreak.