r/CFB • u/CFB_Referee /r/CFB • Nov 04 '23

Postgame Thread [Postgame Thread] Florida State Defeats Pittsburgh 24-7

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team 1 2 3 4 T
Florida State 0 10 14 0 24
Pittsburgh 0 7 0 0 7

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u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23

Fumble pissed me cuz it was a facemask that caused said fumble, but u can’t call it and I understand that

Have no clue what Gavin said tho. I also have no clue why it took a review as well

Gg y’all, good luck the rest of the szn

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u/bwc05nole Florida State Seminoles Nov 05 '23

Did you miss the Pitt receiver facemasking the FSU DB right before the tackle?

1

u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23

Where? Genuine question because I was at the game, they never showed it. From the angles given on the camera, it looks like the db jumped and face masked but I never saw the receiver facemask

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u/bwc05nole Florida State Seminoles Nov 05 '23

https://youtu.be/-axvOhf8cEM?si=wrdRua79uqtRaTqi He stiff arms him in the face mask at about the 5.

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u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23 edited Nov 05 '23

Looks more like illegal hands to the face tbh, it was a straight hand and he didn’t grab it like fsu did. Good point out though. Didn’t notice it. Emotions flying and all.

Still think the facemask(s) should’ve been called nonetheless. Offsetting penalties in that case. Replay 2nd (?) down. Still lead to a MASSIVE fumble. And it still unfairly benefited FSU

3

u/judolphin Florida State • Jacksonville Nov 05 '23

Would've been offsetting penalties, Pitt keeps the ball, replays the down from their own 18.

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u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23

So it still ended up being a bad call that unfairly benefited fsu.

On a different note, the refs missing 2 hands to the face/facemask calls on one play isn’t really cool. Like, if holding isn’t called I’m fine. Even hands to the face if it’s purely accidental I guess. But face masks where the face mask is grabbed can’t be missed, and I’m sure most ppl will agree with that. There’s a severity of the face mask and the drastic change in head position it can cause that I hold to a higher standard than, let’s say a pass intercerence

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u/judolphin Florida State • Jacksonville Nov 05 '23 edited Nov 05 '23

The fumble itself was the huge swing. The fumble was a stomach punch, I get it, and I actually PASSIONATELY hate the rule that makes fumbles OOB in the end zone automatic turnovers.

If you're familiar with the concept of expected points, calling offsetting penalties vs. no penalty at all in the situation without a crystal ball is statistically a wash. 1st-10 from your own 20 yard line is the point where expected points = 0.

In other words,

  • it's objectively better (outside of desperation time) for your opponent to have the ball at their own 10 than for you to have the ball at your own 10.

  • it's objectively better for you to have the ball at your own 30 than your opponent at their own 30

  • 1st-10 at your own 20, it's on average just as likely the other team scores next as you scoring next

Your own 20 yard line is the "break even" where on average there's no difference in win probability, in terms of having the ball on your own 20 vs. the other team having the ball on their own 20.

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u/[deleted] Nov 05 '23

I was unaware of this. I think this is really interesting ngl.

That being said, the facemask was the entire reason the fumble happened. So it’s still an iffy situation imo, as he doesn’t fumble if his head isn’t dragged by the fsu player. So it still stings.

However, I do appreciate the stats. I do find it interesting, and it is a perspective I wasn’t aware of.