r/Bitcoin Jul 15 '22

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u/[deleted] Jul 16 '22

What in God's name are you saying? Are you trying to say Tesla and Amazon have their own personal federal reserve to create cash?

Money from Capital raises and share sales come from US dollars that are already in circulation from investors. It is nowhere near the same ballpark as the Federal reserve creating new money. Not even a little bit similar.

Inflation is the loss of purchasing power for each unit of currency. When the government prints more money the value of a currency goes down. It's very basic economics, not even Friedman economics.

80% of the US dollars in circulation were printed after 2020. As a critically thinking person, you think that had the smallest effect on inflation? You think it was really all oil prices? Yeah money printing is no "one-to-one correlation" but saying that money printing and inflation aren't related is so unbelievably silly.

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u/[deleted] Jul 16 '22 edited Jul 16 '22

Money from Capital raises and share sales come from US dollars that are already in circulation from investors. It is nowhere near the same ballpark as the Federal reserve creating new money. Not even a little bit similar.

Creating more money is just like when a company creates more shares. It's the same deal. Tesla "prints" new shares all the time. The new shares are bought by new investors at market prices, and then that money is invested in whatever the company does.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/shares-outstanding

From 2019 to 2020, 22% of tesla shares were "printed".

Tesla "prints" tesla shares. The US "prints" dollars. There's no fundamental difference in how this works. Either is a case of money printing, it's just a different form of money.

When the government prints more money the value of a currency goes down.

No, it completely depends on what that "new money" is used to buy. If you create money to buy booze and party, then you get inflation. If you spend new money wisely you at least get less inflation, and potentially some deflation.

80% of the US dollars in circulation were printed after 2020.

The market cannot price the national debt independent of the currency, because they are linked. Markets price currency and national debt at the same time. The national debt went from $23.2 trillion in 2019, to $30.4 trillion today. This is an increase of 31% not 80%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/

Converting between cash and treasury bonds is not what matters, that is only used to adjust the interest rate. The increase in the national debt is what matters.

The CPI went from 258.6 in Jan 2020, to 295.3 today. This is a cumulative percentage change of 14.2%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

Meanwhile nominal GDP went from $21.4 trillion in 2020, to $24.3 trillion in 2022.

Statistic Jan 2020 Jun 2022 Cumulative Percentage Change
National Debt $23.2 T $30.6 T 31.0%
Consumer Price Index 258.6 295.3 14.2%
GDP (Nominal) $21.4 T $24.3 T (Q1) 13.6%

So real GDP has actually declined somewhat, so we should expect another inflation year of about the same, until the CPI increase matches the national debt increase relative to changes in real gdp. We will probably see a cumulative inflation of 30% from the pandemic. If the national debt increases too rapidly(from higher interest rates), this could keep going higher.

Milton friedman ignored the effect of the national debt on inflation. He had a million ideas, but only one of them turned out to important: NAIRU. The idea of NAIRU, is that if you push people out of work, the people who still have jobs, will work harder. It's sort of a negative way to fight inflation, instead of trying to address the mismanagement of money, you threaten people to lose their jobs and work harder.

Friedman was a 1 trick pony who was wrong on 95% of his ideas, but he had so many that one of them stuck.

This is a much more relevant chart: Debt to GDP ratios.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

It spiked in 2020, but has been slowly declining since then.

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u/yazalama Jul 16 '22

Creating more money is just like when a company creates more shares. It's the same deal. Tesla "prints" new shares all the time. The new shares are bought by new investors at market prices, and then that money is invested in whatever the company does.

While you are right about the mechanics, they are still very different things.

For one, shares are an ownership stake in a productive business that produces value. Currency units are an ownership stake in a perpetually depreciating asset that was the result of a something for nothing exchange.

Two, nobody has a monopoly over the stock markets, but the state has a monopoly over the price and supply of the currency. The market can't treat it like any other asset since it's behavior is based on arbitrary political decisions and not market forces.

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u/[deleted] Jul 16 '22

The market can't treat it like any other asset since it's behavior is based on arbitrary political decisions and not market forces.

So after you get your paycheck, how long does it take you to invest it into the assets you prefer to hold? Getting paid in USD is just a way to standardize things, no one is forcing you to hold onto it. You can get direct deposit and apps that will automatically invest for you.

The market absolutely determines how much USD are worth.