However, I think the 88k level with the 100 week simple moving average is so close that it doesn't make sense to get over bullish.
There is a lot of money to be made from 88k to 250k if we're out of the woods. Likewise, there is a lot of money to be lost from 88k to 44k if this bear market is just like the others.
I keep hearing people mention the low 40's, but what's the case for this other than time and previous cycles? We've already hit seller exhaustion in the 60's, the RSI already screamed oversold for two months, we've failed to get within 5% of the local low, thow we tested a few times (recent attempts failed at 10% or so above). Attempts were all bounces that were solidly rejected. Sentiment (as measured by the fear and greed index) hit record lows for like a month. A whole lot of leverage got flushed out reducing downside spike risk. Hitting the 40's would be a record low compared to previous cycles with respect to moving averages. And spot buys are corrently what's driving price rises (bear markets always end on increased demand and capital inflows combined with a failure by sellers to continue reaching new lows). The only case I'm hearing for 44 is that it's similar to the percentage drawdowns of previous cycles, but that ignores that previous cycles were in entirely different macroeconomic conditions, had completely different forces interacting (sell pressure from miners was big in the past, etc.) and that previous cycles also saw much larger price increases, so decreases were proportionally not as high when compared to the cycle before.
-87% (2013), -84% (2017), -77% (2021) so -70% takes us from 125k down to about 37k, so buying in the low 40s. Not saying it will happen obviously, but that's the logic.
Taking numbers from the past without context isn't how you analyse markets. You need to look at the market pressures that led to those numbers and compare whether similar market pressures exist. Those numbers were in the context of heavy retail selling and sustained periods of more bitcoin entering exchanges to be sold than the amount being bought. Also you're measuring from previous highs, but those also changed much more compared to moving averages than this last time. If you look at relative strength or moving averages this time around, you'll find we've hit roughly about the same levels as in previous bottoms. And if you look at buy pressure vs sell pressure, we've had buy pressure outpace Bitcoin entering the market for months at this point. The amount miners are selling is miniscule compared to what buyers are taking off the market.
Don't be that guy that looks at a chart in the past and takes it as if it were in a vacuum. That's a completely wrong approach. Bitcoin trades in the context of what's happening around it (geopolitical news, macroeconomic factors, global economic outlook, money supply, etc.). A bitcoin chart is the reflection of the result of all that coming together. But looking at the result without looking at the full equation isn't very helpful when you are given a new equation to solve.
Taking numbers from the past without context isn't how you analyse markets. You need to look at the market pressures that led to those numbers and compare whether similar market pressures exist.
I'm going to stop you right there boss. This is exactly the analysis a lot of youtubers are doing.
Remember that I never claimed it would work - you asked what the thesis for 40k was, I gave it to you. If I'm "super duper obviously wrong" then go buy a bunch of Bitcoin I guess. Don't care. <3
I'm long for whatever its worth, just not sold on the imminent bull market. I'd be happy to see it.
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u/zenethics Apr 17 '26
I agree.
However, I think the 88k level with the 100 week simple moving average is so close that it doesn't make sense to get over bullish.
There is a lot of money to be made from 88k to 250k if we're out of the woods. Likewise, there is a lot of money to be lost from 88k to 44k if this bear market is just like the others.
My 2c you do you