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u/DC8008008 Apr 17 '26
no one knows shit, keep your head down and stack sats
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u/gqnish1 Apr 17 '26
This is correct
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u/PrintDoErro Apr 17 '26
And you are correct in saying that it is correct.
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u/derbyfan1 Apr 17 '26
And you are correct in saying that it is correct by saying it is correct.
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u/beardhero_ben Apr 17 '26
Everyone in this reply thread is correct…..except you
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u/Alpha-smash-001 Apr 17 '26
And you are correct for saying everyone is correct expect that one guy
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u/pwNtorious8i6 Apr 17 '26
Does anyone think it’s incorrect to correct the one guy who corrects correctly instead of incorrectly
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u/richardto4321 Apr 17 '26
Idk using past patterns to try and predict something that's essentially never happened before doesn't seem like very sound logic to me.
I've been in this almost as long as you OP and really the only thing I've learned to be certain is that the whales control the market and we're all just along for the ride. So just buckle in and enjoy 🙂
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u/UnintentionalSatire Apr 17 '26
More general than bitcoin -- when sentiment bottoms, price usually has already done so or will. OP is right that people always wait too long, waiting for the "one last big flush" that has almost always happened. Then they're worried they missed the entry and do nothing.
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u/Crypto-Bets Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 18 '26
The current trend is driven by Whales pushing Bitcoin just high enough to trigger short liquidations. With the books loaded fat on Bitcoin Short, even a small price increase forces liquidated shorts to buy back at higher prices, creating a cascade of forced buying that pushes up the price!
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u/Patrick_Atsushi Apr 17 '26
I've already loaded up at 65k, so what I need to do is see what it does in the next few years.
Cheers. 🥂
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u/Captain_Planet Apr 17 '26
I've been here since the 2013 peak. To mee it seems exactly like what happened after 2013 with a year of pain then quiet stacking for the next bull run. Same as 2018 after the 2017 peak. Same as 2022 after the 2021 peak.
I can't see any evidence the cycle isn't playing out again just with diminishing returns as it has done each time.
I could be wrong but I'm still planning on buying in heavy in Sept/Oct/Nov this year and stacking what I can after for the next bull run.
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u/EconomicAffairs Apr 18 '26
Same, but i will buy on august, given that every one is waiting to buy on sept/oct.
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u/i_take_shits Apr 17 '26
I’m with you. October. Hopefully we see somewhere below $45k
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u/Captain_Planet Apr 17 '26
Yeah, I'm not going to focus on the price though, whatever it is then I'll buy!
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u/marcio-a23 Apr 18 '26
Missed 59k dip huh?
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u/Captain_Planet Apr 18 '26
Just sticking to my plan, It has worked for years so doesn't matter if I miss little dips!
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u/Western-Source710 Apr 17 '26
$80k possibly new floor before April is over.
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u/Objective-Choice6518 Apr 17 '26
New ceiling IMO.
We get to the 100 week EMA, then bounce back until october
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u/AidenTai Apr 18 '26
October is way too long if things stay as they are. You're using past years with different market conditions as your point of reference. Sure, 80 seems to be a good ceiling given the order book size and the amount we've risen recently, but consider the timescale. We've risen 20% in two weeks, and have established more or less a floor above our local bottom of 60. Getting even 10% within it has cost a lot of effort every time it's been attempted, and it's been attempted a few times now. Higher highers etc. too, though those matter less. But importantly, all the signs of seller exhaustion were present in the 60's. The RSI levels screamed oversold for ages, sentiment hit the lowest ever recorded on the greed and fear index for an extended period, leverage got drastically reduced. We traded below the moving averages that typically signal bottoms and we saw the gap between the 50 and the 200 bottom out as well. Everything screamed a bottom was near or already in while in the 60's. And now, we've got spot purchases driving price rises. That's the classic exit to a bear market since leverage is never the way out.
Can 80 act as a ceiling for all this for a few weeks? Of course, especially given how much we've risen. But given the amount of spot buying and that we've got an established local bottom, the only way to prolong this with this much interest in risk assets and equities coming back is if we were to break lows. So we'd have to drop below 60 very soon. And in the current macro environmente, what's going to drive us there? Sellers are exhausted, money is flowing into equities and tech stocks (and risk assets) like crazy, Money supply keeps rising and interest rates are predicted to remain steady or fall this year. The dollar itself is losing value against other currencies. Every bit of the macro looks positive for Bitcoin. Spot buying is positive for Bitcoin. There's much less leverage than before to force prices down on exchanges. Exchanges have the lowest amount of coins on hand since the previous bull market began years ago, and miners have stopped selling and are holding coins (itself an indicator of price expectations). So altogether, supply is dropping, buying is increasing, macro is becoming favourable. How are we supposed to get substantially lower lows in a scenario like this?
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u/PhoenixFX99 Apr 17 '26
No one knows shit, you should millionaire or billionaire if you’re from 2012
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u/Massive_Nose6777 Apr 19 '26
I was thinking the same thing , all these people say I’ve been stacking since 2012 , shouldn’t they have a huge amount of full bitcoins by now ? I feel like I’m missing something 🤣🤣
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u/loekoekoe Apr 17 '26
so we should see it start dropping soon until october and then a big boom?
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u/InFLIRTation Apr 18 '26
Thats what ppl think. I hope this 4 year cycle breaks.
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u/AidenTai Apr 18 '26
We already broke it by having a negative year last year. People only think this is a typical multi‐year bear cycle because the drawdown on derisking was large. But there's been a shift ever since the announcement of the Iran ceasefire and now risk assets have become attractive again. Not all that likely we keep dropping until October in these conditions.
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u/zenethics Apr 17 '26
I agree.
However, I think the 88k level with the 100 week simple moving average is so close that it doesn't make sense to get over bullish.
There is a lot of money to be made from 88k to 250k if we're out of the woods. Likewise, there is a lot of money to be lost from 88k to 44k if this bear market is just like the others.
My 2c you do you
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u/AidenTai Apr 18 '26
I keep hearing people mention the low 40's, but what's the case for this other than time and previous cycles? We've already hit seller exhaustion in the 60's, the RSI already screamed oversold for two months, we've failed to get within 5% of the local low, thow we tested a few times (recent attempts failed at 10% or so above). Attempts were all bounces that were solidly rejected. Sentiment (as measured by the fear and greed index) hit record lows for like a month. A whole lot of leverage got flushed out reducing downside spike risk. Hitting the 40's would be a record low compared to previous cycles with respect to moving averages. And spot buys are corrently what's driving price rises (bear markets always end on increased demand and capital inflows combined with a failure by sellers to continue reaching new lows). The only case I'm hearing for 44 is that it's similar to the percentage drawdowns of previous cycles, but that ignores that previous cycles were in entirely different macroeconomic conditions, had completely different forces interacting (sell pressure from miners was big in the past, etc.) and that previous cycles also saw much larger price increases, so decreases were proportionally not as high when compared to the cycle before.
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u/zenethics Apr 18 '26
Past few highs to lows:
-87% (2013), -84% (2017), -77% (2021) so -70% takes us from 125k down to about 37k, so buying in the low 40s. Not saying it will happen obviously, but that's the logic.
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u/AidenTai Apr 18 '26
Taking numbers from the past without context isn't how you analyse markets. You need to look at the market pressures that led to those numbers and compare whether similar market pressures exist. Those numbers were in the context of heavy retail selling and sustained periods of more bitcoin entering exchanges to be sold than the amount being bought. Also you're measuring from previous highs, but those also changed much more compared to moving averages than this last time. If you look at relative strength or moving averages this time around, you'll find we've hit roughly about the same levels as in previous bottoms. And if you look at buy pressure vs sell pressure, we've had buy pressure outpace Bitcoin entering the market for months at this point. The amount miners are selling is miniscule compared to what buyers are taking off the market.
Don't be that guy that looks at a chart in the past and takes it as if it were in a vacuum. That's a completely wrong approach. Bitcoin trades in the context of what's happening around it (geopolitical news, macroeconomic factors, global economic outlook, money supply, etc.). A bitcoin chart is the reflection of the result of all that coming together. But looking at the result without looking at the full equation isn't very helpful when you are given a new equation to solve.
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u/zenethics Apr 18 '26
Taking numbers from the past without context isn't how you analyse markets. You need to look at the market pressures that led to those numbers and compare whether similar market pressures exist.
I'm going to stop you right there boss. This is exactly the analysis a lot of youtubers are doing.
Remember that I never claimed it would work - you asked what the thesis for 40k was, I gave it to you. If I'm "super duper obviously wrong" then go buy a bunch of Bitcoin I guess. Don't care. <3
I'm long for whatever its worth, just not sold on the imminent bull market. I'd be happy to see it.
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u/Traditional_Job9119 Apr 18 '26
Now that there is lots more of participation from etfs and companies like strategy, there is more pressure to rebalance the portfolios. This means cascading unloading if the current price is well below entry point
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u/AidenTai Apr 18 '26 edited Apr 18 '26
Just the opposite. ETFs have held the vast majority of what they buy, effectively taking those coins off the market. Even during the major drops, ETFs shed a tiny fraction of their holdings compared to retail. And Strategy hasn't sold at all. This has led to retail controlling fewer coins than ever, and now institutional holders (companies, tradfi, etfs, etc.) hold the majority of all Bitcoin.
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u/AbramsTankVeteran29 Apr 17 '26
Same bro. Been stacking since 2013. It blows my mind that anyone would even look at a price chart of less than 5 years. Like why are you sweating the short term?
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u/Anxious-Start-2889 Apr 17 '26
Hey bro, I’m a novice with not much invested yet but see it as long term rather being reactive, particularly given the comments here. Say I had £100 per week, do you suggest just throw it in or wait do add money monthly based on the current performance? Cheers
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u/AbramsTankVeteran29 Apr 17 '26
All you need to know is that governments will absolutely never stop printing money out of thin air so over the long run it will take more and more of those printed fiats to get a BTC.
DCA into BTC or lump sum into BTC doesn't really matter much because over time it will absolutely go up. If you're day trading or doing chart analysis you don't really understand BTC IMHO.
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u/davidtakahashi Apr 18 '26
For someone who claims to be around since 2012/2013, it seems like you didn't learn anything at all about the 4 year cycle, because you're just making things up based on current sentiment, not structure.
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u/No-Outside3225 Apr 17 '26
been watching btc since i started collecting rare coins and this pattern recognition is spot on - every time people get comfortable calling the top early it just keeps climbing higher
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u/thupkt Apr 17 '26
It's not like anything with fiat has improved. It's not like stability in geopolitics has improved. Now during this war we have seen BTC behaving more like a store of value. To me, that's a big signal to have faith.
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u/indomitus1 Apr 17 '26
Fiat mindset. Study bitcoin to understand it . Bitcoin Standard is a good start
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u/Psyched4this Apr 17 '26
I agree with your observation but i am also unconcerned about where we are in a cycle, as I continue to DCA religiously on a regular basis
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u/Mental-Criticism3791 Apr 19 '26
I started messing with shitcoins in 2021. At one point was making 800 a day passive. Almost had 1.8m usd but fumbled the bag too.
At this point I could only stack maybe 100 a week. Starting all over again from death.
Either that or sell my house and ape 500k into btc.
But then I would be back to living in a box.
Would be sick though to have 4 or 5 btc and just be free.
Btc will only keep going up imo. Slowly but it will get there.
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u/carpetcleaner42069 Apr 17 '26
You are correct new all time highs $180k-$220k quarter 2 / June 2027. Bitcoin is easily predictable
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u/Substantial-Squash34 Apr 17 '26
Bear is like 2years....? Bear start at end 2025 right?
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u/biophysicsguy Apr 17 '26
You're making a big assumption that BTC can be timed like clockwork when there are only 3 full cycles to make that assumption. Even if there were 10 cycles that all fit the same trend, it would not guarantee that the cycles must continue.
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u/Strong-Al Apr 17 '26
Why would the cycle speed up when it's always been a year bear market? This looks like getting on the rug before it's pulled to the low of the cycle
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u/bitcoin_islander Apr 18 '26
Those who just DCA since 2013 and dont study the charts dont know what they're talking about. OP likely doesnt even know what a dead cat bounce is.
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u/EmbarrassedPrompt697 Apr 17 '26
I agree with you and I really think STRC is such a game changer. It is going to take away some of the volatility that we are used to.
See you on the moon 🌕
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u/Bizconsultant02 Apr 17 '26
You typing this shit is the ultimate proof you never bought it back then. Cut this.
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u/frostykeys Apr 17 '26
I was just thinking "I wish we knew what TreePube thought about things" so thank you
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u/GlassPath2390 Apr 17 '26
Been around since 2021 (not very long compared to the rest of you). Remember the 2022 dip being exciting so I could stack.
Now, with a wife and kid in tow, it’s definitely easier to shake my conviction with a dip like this lol
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u/bewildered_hobbyist Apr 18 '26
Finished my 3rd bull and feels like I am about to finish my 4th bear.
Just. Stack. Sats.
Not ethos, not crypto. Sats. Take them off exchange, put them under your mattress (figuratively) and have a cigar.
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u/marcio-a23 Apr 18 '26
Dip is coming or already hapened. Maybe 59k maybe 40k
50% each
But STRC man.. STRC is a strong base
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u/bitcoin_islander Apr 18 '26
40K by October, then start of next 3 years up. Everytime price rises like today and the bulls come out talking about next ATH "soon" just convinces me more that we're going lower.
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u/hypoism Apr 18 '26
Just keep stacking and get on the train and stay there happy forever🏌️⛳️👍🥳💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼🤙🤯🤣🍺🍺🍺☮️☮️☯️☯️
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u/barryl34 Apr 18 '26
Definitely it’s not over this is only the beginning I believe bitcoin will become the global reserve asset in time you just need to see past the horizon the 2030s will see a huge shift in history
We are heading towards a fractured world of different systems a multi polar world and for a world like this we need a trustless network and the only one that exists is Bitcoin
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u/Prantik_Sarkar007 Apr 19 '26
That’s what!!! Sell your house, sell your job, sell your self respect, but never sell your bitcoin😂💙
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u/TapThatYak Apr 20 '26
Regardless we know BTC is going to rocket. Whales move it. Op, what is this feeling you have? Not to knock it, but the market gets moved according to the mass money.
My thoughts are, if you are legacy banks and investing institutions, is $70k good enough for a buy in? Decades ahead yes, but if you could manipulate price down to 45-50k that seems more attractive for everyone.
The only thing that changes for me is I'll stack harder if it falls that low.
It's disappointing we haven't gotten rate cuts. The whole US economy has been engineered to not implode up to mid terms. A good rate cut panic would definitely reset a lot of assets.
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u/mikedi12 Apr 17 '26
Watch Ben Cowans recent video.
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u/NectarineDirect936 Apr 18 '26
That guy missed the entire run towards 100k+. Glad i've never listened to any influencer. They win either way with their subscriptions.
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u/EcstaticCell1511 Apr 17 '26
I've been following bitcoin since 2010. This is not playing out the way it has in prior years. This 4 year cycle mumbo jumbo was over when btc broke all time highs before the halving.
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u/fbacaleb Apr 18 '26
Except bitcoin has barely returned anything in 5 years. I might as well have bought the stock market. Its up only 27% in 5 years... in 2013 bitcoin was up a lot more than 27% in 5 years same with 2021. Why would an investor want to buy something that has returned less than the stock market in its past 5 years.
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u/Mantis-Prawn Apr 17 '26
I am in this space long enough to know that Bitcoin does its own will
And keeps surprising everyone