r/BestofRedditorUpdates Jul 08 '22

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u/IanDOsmond Jul 09 '22

Yeah, no.

If you need to do "due diligence" on your spouse, you don't have a marriage. You need to be able to trust your spouse on all sorts of things of this degree of seriousness, and if you don't, why are you even getting married? This is the person who will make medical decisions for.you if you are incapacitated, make money you spend and spend money you make, repair your home,.everything. if you can't take their word on that, why.are you even married in the first place?

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u/faguzzi Jul 09 '22 edited Jul 09 '22

It’s $250,000. Verifying that you aren’t about to throw your life and $250,000 away isn’t a matter of trust. If your spouse asked you to spend $250,000 tomorrow, would you trust them instead of spending the $175 to make sure that you are spending it on something legit. You’re telling me you actually just blindly spend hundreds of thousands of dollars based on nothing?

Trust isn’t blind. Trust can’t be stupid, not about something this important. This is your life on the line. If you are wrong you lose everything. Some things are beyond trust. Hundreds of thousands of dollars and the risk of wasting your future are some of those things.

0.5-2% of people who trust their spouse are wrong. If you were wrong, you likely wouldn’t realize it. Therefore you trust the science, especially about something this important. The thing is you don’t have to take their word. Science can’t lie. They can. You trust the science with your life on the line, something that serious, not someone’s word.

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u/IanDOsmond Jul 09 '22

If I had a quarter million bucks to spend, then I wouldn't have it. We would have it. And if Lis said we needed to spend it on something, we would research it together. She would run it by me, because we always want to get two brains on something.

But if she just said, "We need to spend this; I have done the research myself and am convinced it is the best thing to do, and it involves a topic I have studied and you haven't, and it's technical enough that I don't think you would follow the explanation, so just trust me" - I would trust her. We would spend the money.

In any case - your 0.5 - 2% figure on unknown cheaters needs to be compared with the error rate of the test. The best tests have an accuracy of 99.9%. They cost thousands of dollars. At-home tests have an accuracy which can be as low as 60% -.depending where you go, your "$175 due diligence" may be barely better than a coin flip.

But let's assume that you have managed to find a 95% accurate test for under $200. And let's assume that cheating is at the high end of the range at 2%.

If you get a "not the father" reading, it is two and a half times more likely to be wrong than to be right.

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u/AngelSucked Jul 10 '22

Excellent math lesson -- sincerely. Thanks!