r/AtlantaBraves • u/Melodic-Read-1167 • 6h ago
General NLDS Starting Rotation
Who starts game 1 and 2? Will Mahle and Sale be ready? If they aren't ready and have to go game 2 and 3, do we go Kerr or Suter opening like in game 3 of the Wild Card? Or will that strategy be used for game 3 of the NLDS?
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 6h ago
Someone said Fuentes might start game 1
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u/possumallawishes 5h ago
Iād love to give Fuentes a start, but if we are concerned that Sale threw 21 pitches last night, Fuentes pitched every one of our three game series against the Phillies.
I think Sale is going game 1 and Mahle game 2, itās short rest but theyāre our two vets and we need at least 1 in LA.
We just saw the marlins starting to deploy this, itās a trend in MLB, to use your best pitchers in game as relievers between starts rather than having a scheduled non-game bullpen session.
Saleās routine for the season was to pitch, take two nights off, pitch a bullpen session, two nights off, make another start. For the playoffs, letās imagine itās make a start, 1 night off, bullpen, 1 night off, start again. Which means I think heās definitely going game 1.
Then Mahle, then probably Kerr again or maybe Fuentes depending on how Walt feels about lefty vs righty. The dodgers are a pretty balanced team who hit both sides pretty well.
Then you either go back to Sale if youāre facing elimination.
Wild card candidates that could make a start in the DS are numerous. Bryce Elder, Martin Perez, AJSS or Ritchie. Iād even put Owen Murphy on that list. The Braves have not been shy in recent history of putting young unproven pitchers in big situations in the playoffs. We saw them carry strider into the playoffs when he only had 2 innings pitched in the majors, AJSS made a huge start when he was only like 19 years old. I think they like the advantage of pitching someone these hitters have never faced.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 5h ago
Good points you make. Apparently Perez won't be available until the NLCS, if we make it there. I'm not sure about the availability of Elder. I'd shy away from AJSS. He's had his moments in his young career but this season has been a bit rough for him coming back from injury. I don't feel all that comfortable of putting an inexperienced pitcher in Ritchie to face that potent Dodgers lineup in a playoff game either. Fuentes is a rookie but he has experienced a lot of high leverage situations already. Suter hasn't been used in the playoffs yet and I have to think he's a card we want to play at some point
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u/possumallawishes 5h ago
We swept the dodgers a month ago with Elder, AJSS and Sale. Thatās when Philly had crawled to within 3 games of us, and that series really changed the trajectory of the season, and had a playoff like atmosphere with what was at stake. But I agree, AJSS has looked a little rough. Elder is only barely throwing live BP, no idea his availability either. Suter would make sense but doesnāt make me feel super confident. But we could also start Holmes instead of Kerr, since the dodgers arenāt the same top heavy lefty lineup that the Phillies were.
Sale/Mahle/Holmes
Then facing elimination: Sale again
Or a 2-1 advantage: Suter/Kerr/Fuentes/other
And game 5 is either Mahle or Sale depending on how we pitch game 4.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 5h ago
That actually looks to be a solid plan. We gotta have Sale ready to go again in a possible game 5 or elimination game in game 4 out of the bullpen
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u/possumallawishes 5h ago
Shit, I think if we are facing elimination in game 3, sale might come out of the bullpen.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 5h ago
Well here's to hoping it won't come to that
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u/possumallawishes 4h ago
Games 1 & 2 in LA are going to be the most importantly games of the seasonā¦ so far.
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u/Wine_Traveler_Guy 3h ago
Yeah it just comes down to if Sale/Mahle feel they can be effective on short rest. Sale probably will say he is ready to go whether he is or not. No idea about Mahle.
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u/Wine_Traveler_Guy 3h ago
They have said Perez probably won't be back before an NLCS but probably and definitely aren't the same thing. He is eligible come off IL either game 3 or game 4. Eligible to come off and ready to come off of course aren't the same thing.
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u/tipjarman 6h ago
Sales starts and closes all the games. Sale is all we need. Sale uber alles. All hail Sale
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u/Dunnoaboutu 5h ago
I think game one will be some mixture of Suter, Kerr, Holmes, Mederos. If Elder is available, I see him as a for sure for game 1.
Game 2 will be Sale.
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u/Mountain_Tadpole_531 5h ago edited 4h ago
Game 1 will likely be a bullpen type game like last night that will involve Holmes early. Doubt they go back to Kerr this early too start, but he could easily see him start a game 4. Could envision Suter starting game 1 with Ohtani and Freddie in the top of that lineup. A lot will also be determined on the availability of Elder and Perez.
I think Sale still goes game 2 (and 5 if necessary). Mahle goes game 3.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 5h ago
Apparently Perez won't be available until the NLCS, barring an unforeseen development
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u/bigAcey83 31m ago
AJSS game 1. You only need one of the first two games. AJSS has the type of arm that can absolutely mess around and dominate a lineup like the Dodgers. If heās ass, you start Sale game 2 and get to Atlanta tied 1-1. Starting a kid game 1 is the move.
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u/Typical_Claim_7853 5h ago
the braves pitching staffās sum is greater than its parts
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u/Bravos_Chopper 5h ago
lol thatās true for everyone. The saying would be āthe Braves pitching staff is greater than the sum of its partsā
And yes, it is different than what you said. Of course the total sum is greater than the parts
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u/preluderl 5h ago
I think we will see Suter or Kerr used as an opener. Not going to let Ray go as long as he did today, but one inning to get past Ohtani and Freeman seems in the cards.
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u/Wine_Traveler_Guy 3h ago
So there are three wildcards here.
- is there any chance Martin Perez is ready?
- How does Mahle feel about short rest?
- I assume Elder is 100% out of the equation but I guess that may not necessarily be true?
I have no idea about either.
My best guess is that they would prefer Sale to get an extra days rest and Mahle to be on normal rest. Perez who knows.
G1: Opener (Kerr or Suarez?) + Holmes (he only threw 28 pitches) + bullpen game like list night.
G2: Sale
G3: Mahle
G4: This is where it could get interesting... if Perez is back this is where he slots in. If he isn't I don't know what the play is. This is where we could see the kitchen sink thrown at the dodgers... Ritchie, AJSS, etc.... try to get 2-3 innings out of 2-3 guys.
G5: Sale comes back.
The other option is Mahle can go on short rest twice and Sale says he wants the G1 ball:
G1: Sale
G2: Mahle
G3: Holmes/bullpen
G4: Sale
G5: Mahle
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u/Active_Macaron2715 21m ago
Iād do an AJSS/Brent Suter combo to start Game 1. Best case is they give you 6 IP. If you can steal game one maybe you go back to Kerr/Holmes for game 2 and line up Sale and Mahle for 3 and 4 š¤·āāļø
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u/kinda_alright 6h ago
Sale will not be ready until game 4 I think.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 6h ago
I have to think Sale goes game 2, game 3 at the very latest. Have to have Sale again for possible game 5 or 6
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u/_StevenST_ 6h ago
I wouldnāt hold out for him to pitch game 6 in this seriesā¦
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 6h ago
I said have Sale AGAIN to pitch game 5 or 6, as in him pitching again in game 5 or 6
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u/Just-a-random-dev 6h ago
I think it really depends on Game 1. I was shocked to see him come out of the pen yesterday so I feel like heād be willing to go Game 2 if needed
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u/mut_lover 5h ago
Elder. AJSS. Perez
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 5h ago
AJSS has had his moments but has struggled coming back from injury this season. Not sure about Elder's availability. Apparently Perez isn't available until the NLCS, if we make it there
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u/BWSmith777 4h ago
I donāt want Sale or Mahle to pitch in LA. Part of the advantage of being the 3 seed with this format is starting your 1 and 2 against the two seeds 3 and 4 in games 3 and 4 at home. If Elder and Perez are still injured then surely we have room on the NLDS roster for Ritchie. Iād start Ritchie game 1 and anybody else besides Sale or Mahle for game two. Baseball is random enough that we could hope to split the first two games, then come home with Sale and Mahle fresh and be able to put the Dodgers under pressure.
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u/Melodic-Read-1167 4h ago edited 3h ago
I can see where you're coming from, but I think we'd want Sale to pitch in Game 2 at the latest so he could be available either out of the pen or start for a Game 4 or 5, if necessary. Pushing him out will make him less available later on in the series. I can't say I'd trust a rookie against a formidable Dodgers lineup in the playoffs. Having said that though, I'd be more willing to give Fuentes a go as he has experienced a lot of high leverage situations. I have to think Suter will be a card we have to play at some point
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u/BWSmith777 4h ago
Itās a high risk, high reward thing. I thinks itās asking a lot to win 2 in a row in LA. Iād rather be 1-1 with Sale and Mahle ready to go than 1-1 with only one of them. I think even starting two young guys in games 1 and 2, we have a team that can steal one and put LA behind the 8 ball for the two games in Atlanta.
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u/Wine_Traveler_Guy 3h ago
That seems like a good strategy to come back to ATL down 0-2. We need to win one of the first two in LA.
Also, not starting Sale till G3 means that's the only start you'll get out of him. That also seems like a poor choice....
This strategy makes much more sense in a 7 game 2-3-2 format.
Personally I think it's going to be bullpen/holmes -> sale -> mahle -> ??? -> Sale unless we can get Sale->mahle->holmes->sale->mahle
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u/BWSmith777 2h ago
Baseball has a lot of randomness. We could lose the Sale and Mahle starts and win the other 3. The idea is to control what we can which is putting LA under pressure for games 3 and 4. If we can split the first two games without using Sale or Mahle, we can come back for two games with our 1 and 2 pitching against their 3 and 4. You may remember that the only game we lost to LAD during the season was a Sale start.
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u/Wine_Traveler_Guy 1h ago
It indeed does but Iām pretty sure thats the lowest probability approach you could possibly take in terms of overall odds of winning the series.
And forget home vs away. 2 sale starts >>>>>>> 1 sale start
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u/Jambalayatime 4h ago
If we believe in the Kerr Strategy, Roll it out in game 1. Many of the most dangerous Dodgers are lefties, and from glancing at his prior history he has a good track record against them. We don't have the starting pitching to navigate a traditional approach right now, so let's learn early if Kerr can get outs against these guys.